Rest-Of-Season Outfield Rankings (September Update)

September 1, 2019

Riley Mrack provides updated rest-of-season outfield fantasy baseball rankings for 5x5 roto mixed leagues in September. Our RotoBaller staff's OF rankings feature the #1 most accurate industry expert, Nick Mariano.

With the MLB regular season winding down, we begin to close in on the final stretch of your fantasy baseball championship run. We've collected some of the brightest baseball minds here at Rotoballer to deliver you our rest-of-season rankings analysis to help you secure your league title. Now that fantasy football is nearly in full swing, take advantage of distracted managers in your league by staying active on the waiver wire and staying on top of trending hitters.

Today we'll look at the broad landscape of the outfield position. It's no secret that this position has the widest range of talent, and it also happens to contain the most elite hitters in all of baseball. With several breakout players, rookie call-ups, and the inevitable injury bug keeping some stars sidelined, it's a vastly different looking arrangement of outfielders than what we saw even at midseason.

There's a lot of players to sift through, so let's dive right into the analysis.

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Updated Outfield Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (September)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below!

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

Mike Trout has disappointed a bit in the stolen base column this year with ten thefts, but he's set a new career-high in home runs (42), and his 103 runs and 99 RBI have him on pace to eclipse his career-high run and RBI totals (123/111).  It remains extremely difficult to budge him off the top spot on any rankings board.

Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first 30/30 player this season over the weekend, although Christian Yelich will likely join him before the year ends. Yelich has played 15 fewer games than Acuna Jr., thanks to a lingering back injury, but you wouldn't know it looking purely at his stat output. The reigning NL MVP comes with a bit more injury risk down the stretch, but you can bank on all three of these studs to keep producing as long as they've got a bat in their hands.

Tier Two

Mookie Betts hasn't lived up to his 2018 MVP numbers, but he's still ranked the eighth-best outfielder on Yahoo this season. His 90.9 MPH Exit Velocity sits just over a tick lower than his 2018 mark, while his 45.9% Hard Hit% sits over 10 full points higher than the league average. These metrics have still provided him with a respectable .285 BA and a league-leading 118 runs. Betts continues to walk almost as often as he strikes out (14.5% BB%/14.9% K%), and still has an outside shot at a 20/20 campaign.

Juan Soto is tied with Trout for the second-most homers since the All-Star Game with 14, trailing only Acuna Jr. by one. His 12 thefts this year are welcomed, but if he ran a bit more, he'd undoubtedly be a first-round pick in 2020 drafts. Soto's 29 bombs, 88 runs, and 86 RBI are insane numbers for a 20-year-old, and with 30 games to go, his year-end results will be even more salivating.

Tier Three

After a 45-steal season in 2018, Whit Merrifield's 17 thefts this year has him shaping out to be a draft-day letdown in 2019. I wouldn't call him a complete bust as he still holds a shiny .298 BA and 86 runs, but he hasn't returned the value in the SB column that owners drafted him for in March. His 68% succession rate is bewildering, and he just recently snapped a 19-game stretch without a single steal. Merrifield's reputation has his stock elevated, but he can still be counted on for excellent production in the run and BA columns.

Max Kepler may be the biggest surprise in this grouping. He's set career-highs across the board with 35 round-trippers, 90 runs, 86 RBI, and a .254 batting average. After gradual progression in Statcast metrics since his debut in 2015, he's continued the trend with new personal bests in Hard Hit% (41.4%), Barrel% (9.1%), and Exit Velocity (89.8 MPH). The biggest gain that Kepler can attribute his success to in 2019 is in his 52.3% pull-rate, which has helped him lift fly balls over the right-field fence much more often.

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

Regression has found its way to Trey Mancini in the second half, but not yet pertaining to his power numbers. His .296 BA in the first half has seen a significant drop to a .236 mark since the break, but his .529 SLG sits slightly above his .517 mark from the first half. Mancini's second-half 30.8% HR/FB mark is surely unsustainable, and with over a 5% increase in groundball-rate in this span, it could very well be a cold month of September for the 27-year-old.

Finally with a full healthy season to his credit, Jorge Soler has emerged as one of the league's top power threats. With 36 big flies and 91 RBI on the campaign, the former Cubs prospect has destroyed the baseball this year to a 16.1% Barrel%, the third-best mark among all major leaguers with 250 batted ball events. Soler’s .278/.423/.624 slash line and 13 homers since the break have us with little reason to believe he'll slow up anytime soon with a 40/100 season in his sights.

Tier Five

Since joining the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline, all Nicholas Castellanos has done is raked. He's belted eight homers while sporting a terrific .375/.406/.708 slash line batting out of the two-hole in a much-improved lineup than when he was with Detroit. He was only able to lift 11 balls out of the park with 37 RBI in 100 games in the Motor City, but is in a much more advantageous position to keep producing in Chicago. With superior hitters protecting Castellanos, we may see the 27-year-old hit his peak with just over a month remaining.

Aristedes Aquino has taken the league by storm in his first month as a big leaguer. After crushing 28 long balls in 78 Triple-A games, the 25-year-old hasn't skipped a beat in the majors with 12 more homers in his first 23 games. Although his video-game worthy 44.4% HR/FB mark is destined for regression, the drop off may not be as considerable with Great American Ballpark ranking as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. Aquino also has power to all fields with half of his homers going to the opposite field, making him more challenging to pitch against. Pitchers will no doubt attack him differently moving forward, but it'll be difficult to neutralize his raw power.

Tier Six

After remaining one of the most consistent power producers over the previous three seasons, Khris Davis has fallen off a cliff fantasy-wise in 2019. He came out of the gate as hot as anyone with 10 homers through the team's first 17 games of the year, but it's been disastrous since then. He's managed to hit just eight home runs in his following 91 games while batting a frightening .205 with a 28.4% K-rate. Khris Davis has transformed into Chris Davis this season, and with no signs of an imminent turnaround, he's become droppable in mixed leagues.

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tiers Seven And Eight

Willie Calhoun has the makings of a potential league-winner down the regular season's stretch run. An up-and-down season in between minor league demotions and injuries finally has the 24-year-old cemented into the everyday lineup. He's slugged eight home runs in August while cutting down his 19.0% K-rate to 14.4% this month, an encouraging sign to see from a youngster. Calhoun has also seen a recent promotion to the cleanup spot in the lineup giving him a superb opportunity to keep racking up the counting stats.

Giancarlo Stanton has been cleared to take batting practice after playing in only nine games so far this year. It's unclear when he'll return to the Yankees lineup, but you have to think they won't rush him back with a substantial lead in the AL East race. Stanton likely won't receive enough at-bats the rest of the way to contribute significantly.

Byron Buxton was having a tremendous bounce-back year before landing on the shelf at the beginning of August as he was on pace for a near 20/30 season. He's going to go on a rehab assignment this week and could be back in the Twins lineup the subsequent week after. Managers looking to catch up in steals could add Buxton if he's available on the waiver wire.

Tier Nine and Beyond

Surprisingly, the league-leader in steals is in tier nine with Mallex Smith only contributing to the SB column this season. His 36-steal total is commendable, but the ceiling would be much higher if he could improve his pedestrian .301 OBP.

Trent Grisham is a player to keep an eye on if an injury were to take place in the Brewers outfield. With Yelich's back woes and Lorenzo Cain recently missing games with an oblique injury, Grisham could swoop in as an under-the-radar mixed-league asset. The 22-year-old has hit four homers in 66 plate appearances which have mostly come as a leadoff hitter ahead of the Brew Crew's big boppers.

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