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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 4 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
All of the members in the RotoBaller Reader's Group struggled last week. PAPIPEREZ led the way with just 38 points. Bullgator was second with 34. Only 10 of the 65 entries hit 30 points. At least I didn't struggle alone! There were some crazy upsets in Week 3.
Pick-and-Morty is leading the group with 117 points. Bullgator is two points behind at 115. Niceville War Eagle is two points behind Bullgator. Then it starts to tighten up a bit. PAPIPEREZ and BamaBoy are tied for fourth with 112 points. 13 other entries are above 100 points, so it's still anyone's group to win!
One big week can still move up the list quickly. We have an all-new top five this week, and those five entries were barely in the top 10 last week. Week 4 also looks tough. I'll let you in on which way I'm leaning.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. This week looks a little tougher with some of the expected stronger teams struggling in the first three weeks of the season.
(1) Indiana over Illinois
Now official.
No. 19 Indiana hosts No. 9 Illinois on Saturday.
It’s just the 8th time EVER that the Hoosiers will host a ranked vs. ranked game.
And the FIRST time in a full year since 1993.
It’s also the ONLY time IU as a ranked team has hosted a Top 10 team.
Historic game. pic.twitter.com/EjLWCaMWvw
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) September 14, 2025
I do wonder if this game is going to be too big for Indiana. Not Fernando Mendoza or Curt Cignetti -- I trust those guys -- but the other 20 starters make me a little bit nervous. Both offenses have looked explosive thus far, but both teams thrive on defense. I'm really looking forward to this matchup, so I don't want to put too many points on it. This is going to be a tough, tough game.
(2) Utah over Texas Tech
Texas Tech is winning the troll war on X, but Rice-Eccles is a tough place to play. Lubbock is nearly as high up as Salt Lake City, so I'm not worried about elevation. I'm worried about that Utah defense. As with my one-point pick. I expect a really tough game. I may flip to Texas Tech if the public keeps pounding Utah.
(3) SMU over TCU
TCU HC Sonny Dykes Stated That RB Kevorian Barnes (Lower Leg) Is QUESTIONABLE For Saturday's Game vs. SMU
Barnes Has 21 Att, 156 Yds, & TD For The Horned Frogs This Season#GoCFB #CollegeFootball #TCU #GoFrogs #BleedPurple pic.twitter.com/NTvsKqmqFm
— CFB Nation 🏈 (@TheCFBNation) September 16, 2025
If I had a hunch, I would say that Barnes will play. However, it sounds like he may be limited if he does. To me, this matchup feels closer than ESPN's FPI says. I relied a lot on FPI last week to follow my upset hunches. I may have to go against it here.
TCU is getting props for blasting North Carolina. What does that really mean? I'll ride the SMU team that went toe-to-toe with Baylor into two overtimes. TCU isn't tested. SMU is.
(4) Baylor over Arizona State
Both teams have had bad losses to SEC teams, but I have a feeling that those SEC teams are much better this year than the 2024 versions. I trust what I've seen from Sawyer Robertson, especially after watching Blake Shapen carve up Arizona State a couple of weeks ago. The Baylor offense is even better.
(5) Nebraska over Michigan
There was a time not long ago when I thought that Michigan would suffer a bit with Sherrone Moore suspended. I get it. Bryce Underwood went nuts on Central Michigan because the coach took the gloves off, but that's only part of it. Central Michigan is not a good team! There are roughly a dozen quarterbacks who could do what Underwood did in that game. That's not a knock on Underwood. Most of them are upperclassmen.
Michigan fans are ready to anoint Biff Poggi to take over permanently. That's not going to happen. Underwood gaining confidence for this game is huge for Michigan, but the going will be much tougher against this Nebraska defense.
Nebraska is taking it personally that Moore chose this as one of the games to be suspended. He had a choice. If you've seen any of Matt Rhule's "leaked" speeches, you know that he's using this perceived slight as fuel for this fire.
Nebraska has lost the last four meetings with Michigan, but this one feels different. ESPN's FPI has this as a toss-up (50.3% Nebraska) while Vegas has Michigan as a slight favorite.
If Nebraska loses this, it's business as usual. This fan base is used to being beaten down by now. The difference is that this year's hope isn't unfounded. Nebraska is winning one-score games. It has back-to-back 50-point wins for the first time in 25 years. Is that enough to get this monkey off the back?
(6) North Carolina State over Duke
I'm very close to flipping on this because Duke isn't just a slight favorite in the desert. The moneyline is -155. That's awfully high for a team that lost to Tulane. NC State has tough wins over East Carolina, Virginia, and Wake Forest.
The public is heavy (81%) on North Carolina State, but FPI is only at 50.3%. With the public that far on the Pack, it's really hard for me to be on the same side. Stay tuned. I may flip on this.
(7) North Carolina over Central Florida
This is where I'm going to buck Vegas and the public. I'm out for points. Lots of points. North Carolina got smoked by TCU, and I understand. It was Bill Belichick's first game coaching college football. It happens.
UCF struggled with Jacksonville State and beat an FCS school. Big deal. Carolina smoked an FCS school as well. If UCF had played a decent team, I would be off this. However, too much is being made of the Knights demolishing North Carolina A&T. North Carolina has more talent, and I think it will prove it here.
(8) BYU over East Carolina
My having BYU up this high should be very telling of how tough the games are this week. This will be Bear Bachmeier's first road start. That's a big deal. East Carolina is also a bit tougher than Stanford or Portland State. This one really makes me nervous as well. This is the toughest week I can remember in this contest for several years.
(9) Arkansas over Memphis
This is the first pick that I really feel good about. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is going to be a huge problem for the Memphis defense. Look what he did to the Land Sharks!
Taylen Green : 22/35 for 305 yards, TD & a 145.5 QB Rating; 14 carries for 115 yards & a TD pic.twitter.com/mvreb0bl1G
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) September 14, 2025
This game will be closer than it should, maybe for the duration, because of the Arkansas defense. We'll have to sweat it, but I do think that Arkansas pulls away.
(10) Miami (FL) over Florida
I hate having a rivalry game in the top spot, especially one in which Miami is still so mad about Florida canceling the season series that it refuses to turn the Seminole War Canoe over to Florida even if it loses. I guess it had better not lose...
