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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 10 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
My 33 points in Week 9 left a lot to be desired. South Florida's loss hurt. Relocated Outdoor Party and Riley both tied for the group lead with 53 points last week. JBTiger83 and peter.mccarthy both hit 50 points. I'm glad some of us are having good weeks!
JBTiger83's big week saw him take over first place with 350 points. Bullgator slips to second with 346 points. Riley's big week leads them into third place with 343 points. PAPIPEREZ and chrismiller19 are tied for fourth with 338 points. Five more entries are also above 330 points.
12 entries are in the 320s and still within striking distance. 10 more entries are on the 310s. That group needs a lot of things to go right since we are nearly 67% done with the season.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there, RotoBallers!
(1) Texas over Vanderbilt
I want absolutely no part of this. There's too much noise. Too much hype about Diego Pavia. Too much rhetoric about the 40 acres. Although the last time Vandy played in Austin, the stadium held around 40,000 people.
Arch Manning is practicing, but it still in concussion protocol. Arch skipped the dreaded "doubtful" tag, but spotting a quarterback in practice who is in the concussion protocol means almost nothing. Arch won't get hit in practice. There's no danger of making the concussion worse.
I'm only picking Texas because 66% of the public is on Vandy. Both FPI (70.4%) and Vegas (-2.5) favor Texas.
(2) Nebraska over USC
Nebraska is still salty over the USC game last year, where the zebras stole the game from them. It's also going to be chilly (43 degrees at kickoff and getting colder as the night goes on) in Lincoln. Californians aren't built for 40 degrees and 20 mph winds.
If this comes down to a game between King Miller and Emmett Johnson, give me Emmett Johnson. The public is only 19% on Nebraska. FPI (72.1%) and Vegas (-6.5 USC) agree. This is my time to disagree. My reasoning is sound.
(3) Duke over Clemson
FPI has this close (41% chance at a Duke upset). Vegas is less convinced. Darian Mensah is what everyone thought Cade Klubnik would be this year. I don't trust the Duke defense at all, but this offense is going to hang some points on Clemson.
I hope it's enough since I'm on a point-stealing mission again. The public is picking Clemson at a 73% clip, mostly because people recognize the name. Good luck recognizing the team.
(4) Cincinnati over Utah
Devon Dampier will be "available" for Utah. He was "available" for Colorado as well. The Big 12 calls this an availability report and not an injury report on purpose. It allows the conference to save face, yet allows the teams to be ambiguous with injured players.
Who loses? The people who bet on these games. What I'm getting at is that we have no clue whether Dampier will play or not. He's just available. I almost hope it's Dampier because the public is heavy on Utah (67%).
The way to beat Iowa State is deep. Dampier may not be able to do that. Byrd Ficklin did in his first start against Colorado.
(5) Iowa State over Arizona State
Jordyn Tyson is listed as doubtful. I'm guessing that he doesn't play. Kenny Dillingham is no Kyle Whittingham. He's not known for coach speaking availability reports.
This Arizona State offense simply does not function without Tyson. They have no other receiver who could take the top off of the battered Iowa State secondary. If Tyson plays, I'm flipping and moving this up.
The best team that Navy has played so far may be the Florida Atlantic team that they beat by 10. That's a large margin of victory for a Navy team. Navy allows 256.6 passing yards per game. Drew Mestemaker did this last week. You do the math.
Drew Mestemaker never started a varsity game at QB in high school, was a 0-star recruit, and decided to walk-on at North Texas.
The freshman now leads the country in passing, just threw for a school-record 608 yards, and has the Mean Green 7-1. pic.twitter.com/Kr2fHvV1lc
— Front Office Sports (@FOS) October 25, 2025
(7) Virginia over California
So...how many overtimes will the Wahoos need this week? Virginia has won two overtime games, a double overtime game, and a game on a safety inside of two minutes in the last four contests.
I'll call this one: the Cardiac Cavs are going to get a reprieve this week. Their fans need to be able to lay off the heart meds for a week. It has been a crazy ride for anyone who follows this team. FPI has Virginia with a 67.6% chance to win. That's good enough for me.
(8) Georgia Tech over North Carolina State
ZBrent Key turned Haynes King loose last week. That should be a trend down the stretch. Georgia Tech's lack of a solid run game behind King is as puzzling as it is disturbing, but the Pack can't take advantage of that.
I'm looking forward to the showdown between King and CJ Bailey. FPI has Georgia Tech as a 71% favorite. Vegas has Tech as a 6.5-point favorite. I'm nervous that it's this close because Tech has lived dangerously enough in the last month that I don't know if they can still run the table.
(9) Tennessee over Oklahoma
Oklahoma offense vs. Tennessee defense spiderweb
Tennessee offense vs. Oklahoma defense spiderweb pic.twitter.com/cOXKgspKTw
— Jordan Moore (@jordanmoore_21) October 28, 2025
The chart for the Oklahoma offense doesn't look good. I'll argue that the Oklahoma offense was worse against Mississippi than against any other team because of the half-dozen missed opportunities that we had to get a hold on that game.
Tennessee fans have seen the Vols' defense struggle to close out games. They blew a big lead against Georgia and lost. They blew a sizeable lead against Arkansas and nearly lost.
This game is so interesting because neither fanbase is talking trash leading up to the game. Both fanbases know their teams are flawed. I've watched every game from both teams. Oklahoma's offense is just not good enough to take advantage of the Tennessee mistakes.
(10) Texas Tech over Kansas State
Behren Morton passing averages in his last 6 completed FBS games
346 yards a game
64% Completion%
2.5 TDs
151 Passer RTGWho leads the Big 12 in passing yards per attempt this year? Morton
Who leads the Big 12 in Passing Efficiency Rating? Morton
Doubt him at your own peril pic.twitter.com/KXcWDoT0fz
— Zyler Buchanan 🌵 (@zylerbuchanan) October 29, 2025
Behren Morton will return for this game. Even if he weren't going to play, I would still like Tech here because of the run defense. Kansas State isn't consistently good enough to beat teams deep.
The fact that Morton is in caused me to move this all the way up. I was less confident in a third-string quarterback. I have no doubts about this defense.
