RADIO
It feels like the 2023 season just started, but now here we are with my last in-season Top-500 prospect rankings update. While the season is winding down, endless work is going into these rankings to try and make them the best they can be. It might be September, but now is not the time to take your foot off the gas pedal in your dynasty leagues. Staying on top of prospect trends is as important now as it is in April or June.
These rankings are geared toward standard 5x5 leagues (AVG) and take many factors into consideration, including:
- Performance to date
- Scouting grades
- Future projection
- Video & data analysis
Or, as I like to call it... PPP. Which stands for profile, performance, projection,
While these rankings are more slanted towards long-term fantasy value, proximity and short-term value do play a part in where a prospect lands in my rankings. If you want to see the full Top-500, then head on over to my Patreon!
Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Prospects
Prospect notes and analysis can be found after the rankings table below:
Rankings Updated: September 2023
Prospect Eligibility: Less than 130 MLB AB or 50 IP
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | Age | ETA |
| 1 | Jackson Holliday | SS | BAL | 19.76 | 2024 |
| 2 | Wyatt Langford | OF | TEX | 21.82 | 2024 |
| 3 | Dylan Crews | OF | WAS | 21.21 | 2024 |
| 4 | Jackson Chourio | OF | MIL | 19.50 | 2024 |
| 5 | Junior Caminero | 3B/SS | TBR | 20.18 | 2024 |
| 6 | Jordan Lawlar | SS | ARI | 21.15 | Debuted |
| 7 | Jasson Dominguez | OF | NYY | 20.59 | Debuted |
| 8 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | OF | CHC | 21.46 | 2024 |
| 9 | James Wood | OF | WAS | 20.98 | 2024 |
| 10 | Coby Mayo | 3B | BAL | 21.75 | 2024 |
| 11 | Colt Keith | 3B | DET | 22.07 | 2023 |
| 12 | Paul Skenes | P | PIT | 21.28 | 2024 |
| 13 | Evan Carter | OF | TEX | 21.03 | 2024 |
| 14 | Jett Williams | SS | NYM | 19.85 | 2025 |
| 15 | Adael Amador | SS | COL | 20.41 | 2024 |
| 16 | Colton Cowser | OF | BAL | 23.47 | Debuted |
| 17 | Kyle Manzardo | 1B | CLE | 23.15 | 2024 |
| 18 | Walker Jenkins | OF | MIN | 18.55 | 2026 |
| 19 | Masyn Winn | SS | STL | 21.47 | Debuted |
| 20 | Max Clark | OF | DET | 18.72 | 2026 |
| 21 | Ricky Tiedemann | P | TOR | 21.06 | 2024 |
| 22 | Noelvi Marte | 3B/SS | CIN | 21.90 | Debuted |
| 23 | Cade Horton | P | CHC | 22.05 | 2024 |
| 24 | Emmanuel Rodriguez | OF | MIN | 20.53 | 2024 |
| 25 | Ronny Mauricio | SS | NYM | 22.43 | Debuted |
| 26 | Roman Anthony | OF | BOS | 19.32 | 2025 |
| 27 | Jackson Merrill | SS | SDP | 20.39 | 2024 |
| 28 | Everson Pereira | OF | NYY | 22.42 | Debuted |
| 29 | Luisangel Acuna | 2B,SS | NYM | 21.50 | 2024 |
| 30 | Harry Ford | C | SEA | 20.55 | 2024 |
| 31 | Marcelo Mayer | SS | BOS | 20.74 | 2024 |
| 32 | Joey Loperfido | OF/1B/2B | HOU | 24.33 | 2024 |
| 33 | Tyler Locklear | 1B | SEA | 22.79 | 2024 |
| 34 | Drew Gilbert | OF | NYM | 22.95 | 2024 |
| 35 | Matt Shaw | SS | CHC | 21.84 | 2024 |
| 36 | Chase DeLauter | OF | CLE | 21.92 | 2024 |
| 37 | Carson Williams | SS | TBR | 20.21 | 2024 |
| 38 | Owen Caissie | OF | CHC | 21.17 | 2024 |
| 39 | Colson Montgomery | SS | CHW | 21.53 | 2024 |
| 40 | Jackson Jobe | P | DET | 21.11 | 2025 |
| 41 | Curtis Mead | 2B/3B | TBR | 22.87 | Debuted |
| 42 | Hector Rodriguez | OF | CIN | 19.50 | 2025 |
| 43 | Heston Kjerstad | OF | BAL | 24.58 | 2024 |
| 44 | Sebastian Walcott | SS | TEX | 17.49 | 2026 |
| 45 | Robby Snelling | P | SDP | 19.72 | 2025 |
| 46 | Michael Busch | 2B/3B | LAD | 25.84 | Debuted |
| 47 | Samuel Zavala | OF | SDP | 19.15 | 2025 |
| 48 | Ceddanne Rafaela | OF | BOS | 22.98 | Debuted |
| 49 | Ethan Salas | C | SDP | 17.27 | 2025 |
| 50 | Gabriel Gonzalez | OF | SEA | 19.44 | 2025 |
Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings Notes
Elite Top Tier Prospects
Obviously, I have to put these prospects in a specific order, but there's really no clear-cut #1 prospect right now. There is, however, a clear top tier in my mind of Jackson Holliday, Wyatt Langford, Dylan Crews, Jackson Chourio, Junior Caminero, and Jordan Lawlar. Holliday took over as the #1 prospect in my rankings earlier this season following the promotions of Corbin Carroll, Jordan Walker, and Gunnar Henderson, but his hold on the #1 spot is slipping.
There's no doubting that Holliday's floor is incredibly high given his elite hit tool, but just how much power and speed does he ultimately provide? As of now, if I was projecting peak home run and stolen base totals for this top tier, Holliday would probably rank last in both categories. That's not to say he can't add more power and be a 20-25 homer type at peak, but this is definitely worth noting when trying to nitpick between six stud prospects like this.
Can The Martian Live Up to the Hype?
Well, if we're asking if he can live up to the Mantle/Jackson/Trout comps, than probably not as that would be extremely tough for any player. But once we get past those three names, I do think Jasson Dominguez can become a highly-productive Major League hitter and an impact fantasy outfielder. Through his first six Major League games, Dominguez has already racked up seven hits and three home runs, with his first home run coming off future hall of famer, Justin Verlander.
Dominguez, a switch hitter, has always been a better pure hitter with more raw power from the left side, which is notable given that half of his games will be at a ballpark that has always provided a significant boost to left-handed power. Dominguez projects to be a .260-.270 hitter in my eyes with the potential for more than 30 home runs annually. And if he continues to run even half as much as he did in the minors, we're likely looking at a top-50 overall player.
Expectations for Jordan Lawlar and Evan Carter
Over the last 48 hours, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers gave us a pair of late-season gifts by promoting Jordan Lawlar and Evan Carter respectively.
Starting with Lawlar, he's firmly entrenched in that top-tier I mentioned above and makes a strong case for #1 overall given his power speed blend. After a sluggish start to the 2023 season, Lawlar was red-hot from May 25th on. In his final 71 games before being promoted to Arizona, Lawlar slashed a stellar .325/.413/.565 with 19 doubles, 15 home runs, and 25 steals. Given his power/speed blend, Lawlar could make an immediate impact for fantasy this season and has the upside to be a top-5 shortstop and top-25 overall player down the road.
As for Carter, he's definitely in that 2nd tier of prospects behind the studly-six, but I'm less bullish on him for the 2023 season. Carter's long-term upside is a top-20 outfielder, especially if he can tap into his raw power more consistently in games, but the production this season has been inconsistent as a whole. I'd still be fine looking to him in 12+ team leagues, but Lawlar should be the priority add right now in redraft formats. Long-term, Carter has could be an annual 20/20 threat to pair with a solid AVG and high OBP.
Massive Jump for Jett Williams
There seems to be a wide array of rankings and thoughts on Jett William's future outlook right now. Yes, he's undersized at 5'6, but Williams' all-around offensive skillset and advanced profile are very intriguing to me. To start, the on-base abilities are top-notch and Williams has plus speed as well. Those have helped him post a .429 OBP and 42 steals in 112 games this season between Lo-A and Hi-A. Williams does get overly passive at times though, and showing a bit more aggression moving forward could take his game to another level.
As for his power, while it's nice to see him hitting for more power in Hi-A, I'm not projecting this to be a significant part of his game. But it really doesn't have to be. Even as a 15-18 homer type, Williams could still be an impact fantasy middle infielder given his speed, contact skills, and OBP. As of now, Williams looks like a potential 15/25 type that can hit .270 with a high OBP. THat's why he received a massive jump in my rankings.
Why Is Ethan Salas only at #49 Overall?
Honestly, the hype on Ethan Salas has gotten out of control. Is there plenty of talent here? Absolutely. Does he have a bright future? Also yes. But there's not a chance that I'm ranking Salas as a top-25 prospect for fantasy right now. And let me put emphasis on the "for fantasy" part of that last sentence. If these were real-life rankings, I'd have Salas inside my top-25. But when it comes to fantasy, he's 100% a sell-high candidate this offseason.
There's the potential for an above-average hit tool and maybe above-average game power in time, but there's still some swing and miss in the profile that will need to be cleaned up. Ranking him top-25 now basically means we have 100% confidence that he's going to reach those heights. That's not how I go about my prospect rankings. Could Salas be a top-25 fantasy prospect some day? Yes. But I believe him being a 17-year-old in Double-A has pushed his fantasy prospect rank in general way too high.
Additional Risers & Fallers in my Top 50
Chase Delauter, CLE: You're not high enough on DeLauter. The 21-year-old outfielder is currently slashing .367/.399/.557 in 40 Hi-A games with 18 doubles, four home runs, and three steals. And don't worry, there's more power and speed upside waiting to be unlocked. There's a good chance that DeLauter is top 25 in my end of season rankings and could push top-10 next season if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently in games.
Jackson Merrill, SDP: While I'm probably still on the lower end of Jackson Merrill rankings, it's been nice to see him tap into his power more this season along with being more aggressive on the base paths. The hit tool has never been the question and Merrill is now a top-25 caliber prospect now that he's showing a more consistent power/speed blend in games. He's another one that could be top-10 at some point next season.
Curtis Mead, TBR: Let me start by saying that dropping Mead from 20 to 41 in my rankings doesn't mean I've changed my long-term outlook on him or that I don't believe he's going to be a productive Major League hitter. What happened was me questioning why I had a player with his profile ranked as highly as I did. Mead projects as a .280 hitter with the potential for 15-20 home runs and maybe a handful of steals. That's still a solid outcome and useful for fantasy, but this isn't a profile I feel warrants a top-20 ranking.
Marcelo Mayer, BOS: The 2023 season is now over for Marcelo Mayer and the production overall this season could be considered underwhelming. In 78 games between Hi-A and Double-A, Mayer slashed .236/.306/.433 with 19 doubles, 13 home runs, and nine steals. Mayer really struggled in Double-A after his promotion and there are questions about how much power he ultimately hits for down the road. As of now, I'm not dropping him too far down my rankings, but I do think the 2024 season will be big for Mayer's value one way or another.
If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see the full Top 500 along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
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