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Bold predictions have been thrown about dating back to the stone age. Okay, maybe not that long, but they're always a fun topic to discuss with your friends, especially during this time of year when spring training is just beginning.
The start of Spring Training always creates optimism throughout the baseball world. Sometimes that optimism is realistic and mild, and other times it's more on the bold end of the spectrum. That's the side we'll be diving into today. In the wise words of Austin Powers, "I also like to live dangerously."
And yes, many of these won't come true. That's why they're called BOLD predictions. However, there's at least a slight chance that all of the below bold predictions come true, and that's why they're being included in an article like this. Every bold prediction has a sliver of hope.
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Eric Cross' 2024 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions
Triston Casas Outperforms Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
This isn't that bold in my eyes with how highly I project Triston Casas, but I'm sure it will be to most of you reading this. For the last few years, Vladimir Guerrero Jr has been the top dog at the first base position in the American League East. Well, move on over Vladdy because Casas has arrived.
From July 8 through the end of the season, Casas was one of the best hitters in baseball with a .319/.417/.622 slash line, 15 home runs, and a 13.9% walk rate. He ranked 5th in both wRC+ and wOBA during the second half, trailing only Ronald Acuña Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, and Mookie Betts. Guerrero's metrics remain stellar, but he's yet to come close to his 2021 season where he cranked 48 home runs, but was also aided by minor league ballparks where he hit 21 home runs in 44 games.
Casas from 7/8-EOS: 216 PA, .319/.417/.622, 34 R, 15 HR, 38 RBI, 13.9% BB, 23.6% K, .303 ISO
Guerrero from 7/8-EOS: 306 PA, .244/.340/.432, 36 R, 13 HR, 36 RBI, 12.1% BB, 13.1% K, .188 ISO
Guerrero ran better contact rates, but Casas' quality of contact was better and he was able to put up better stats in 90 fewer plate appearances. This isn't an anti-Vlad bold prediction. It's a pro-Casas one. While it should be close overall, I'm expecting Casas to outperform Guerrero this season while having an ADP of around 70-80 picks later in fantasy drafts.
Elly De La Cruz Goes 30/50, Is a Top 5 Pick in 2025
These are supposed to be bold, right? This bold prediction actually has a solid chance of becoming reality given the immense offensive upside that Elly De La Cruz possesses. Even while working through approach issues as a 21-year-old rookie, De La Cruz was still on a 650-plate appearance pace of 20 home runs, 53 steals, and 102 runs scored. On top of that, De La Cruz was tied for the top sprint speed in baseball and had a max exit velocity of 119.2 mph to go with an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and a hard-hit rate of 45.9%.
There's zero doubt in my mind that De La Cruz is capable of a 30/50 season in 2024. And honestly, there's upside for more than that. But of course, De La Cruz will need to make strides with his approach if he's going to reach or come close to his massive offensive upside. De La Cruz finished 2023 with a 33.7% strikeout rate and 32.8% chase rate, however, many of his other contact/approach metrics weren't what I'd deem as terrible. The upside is there for this prediction to come true and he's in the best hitter's park in baseball.
Aaron Judge during his historic 2022 season...
85.2% Z-Contact
72.2% Contact
11.6% SwStr
29.8% WhiffElly De La Cruz during his 2023 rookie season...
84% Z-Contact
72.8% Contact
12.2% SwStr
29.7% WhiffElly has areas to improve, but his metrics weren't as bad as you'd think. pic.twitter.com/59oxdZJllv
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 30, 2023
Jarren Duran Finishes as a Top 50 Player
Lost in the mix of another disappointing Red Sox season was how productive Jarren Duran was. In 362 plate appearances, Duran slashed .295/.346/.482 with eight home runs and 24 steals to go along with some impressive metrics. He was one of just eight players to have a hard hit rate above 45% and a sprint speed in the 90th percentile or better with a minimum of 50 batted ball events. On top of that, Duran recorded a 91.2% zone contact rate, a 78.6% contact rate, and an average EV of 89.9.
As a lefty in Fenway, I'm not expecting Duran to hit more than 15 home runs or so, but that could come with more than 30 steals, a solid AVG, and maybe even close to 100 runs scored if he's going to be leading off regularly for Boston in front of Rafael Devers and Triston Casas. If that's the season we receive from Duran, he'll finish as a top-50 player. He's a steal in 2024 drafts near pick 200.
Maikel Garcia Finishes as a Top 100 Player
One of my favorite post-200 ADP targets this year is Maikel Garcia. On the surface, Garcia's .272/.323/.358 slash line doesn't stand out at all, but it's his underlying metrics that have me excited. In 2023, Garcia posted a 91.8 mph AVG EV, 50.6% hard-hit rate, and better than league-average whiff, chase, and zone contact rates. But the problem was a higher groundball rate which really limited his game power.
It's easier said than done, but if Garcia can start driving the ball in the air more consistently, he could easily get into the 15-20 homer rate with more than 20 steals and a solid AVG as well.
Victor Scott II Steals 40 Bags in Around Half a Season
Yes, Victor Scott II is THAT fast. In 132 games last season split between Hi-A and Double-A, Scott stole a ridiculous 94 bases and then added 18 more in 23 Arizona Fall League games. This was with high efficiency as well. We're not talking about an Esteury Ruiz type though. Sure, Ruiz and Scott could be close in the SB department, but Scott is the better pure hitter and has more raw power as well.
Imagine Esteury Ruiz with a better bat.
That's the upside we're talking about with Victor Scott II.#STLCards pic.twitter.com/2377DhB4b4
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) November 8, 2023
I've been scooping up Scott in every Best Ball and Draft Champions draft that I can due to the category-winning speed upside he'll bring once up. And if you're in a 12-teamer, keep a close eye on Scott and scoop him up when his debut appears imminent.
Luis Campusano Finishes as a Top 5 Catcher
It finally looks like the Padres will allow Luis Campusano to enter the season as their locked-in starter behind the plate. The additional playing time could be the final piece of the puzzle here because Campusano is coming off an impressive 2023 showing where he finished with a .319/.356/.491 slash line and seven home runs in just 174 plate appearances. There was plemty of legitimacy in that mini-breakout too.
Campusano posted a 91% zone contact rate and 83.7% overall contact rate with above-average quality of contact metrics. He also only struck out 12.1% of the time. If Campusano receives over 500 plate appearances in 2024, we could be looking at around 20 home runs with an average above .280. That would put him in the mix to finish as one of 2024's top fantasy catchers.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Cranks 40 Home Runs
The real question surrounding Christian Encarnacion-Strand this spring was about his playing time after the Reds added Jeimer Candelario into the mix. But given recent reports out of camp, it sounds like Jonathan India will play more in a super utility role and Encarnacion-Strand will get time at 1st Base, Designated Hitter, and maybe even in a corner outfield spot.
In 130 games between Triple-A and Cincinnati last season, Encarnacion-Strand cranked 33 home runs and had a 10.5% barrel rate and 48.4% hard-hit rate in the Majors. In a neutral park, he'd be someone I'd project for 30-35 home runs annually. But since Encarnacion-Strand will play half of his games in Great American Ballpark which is the most hitter-friendly ballpark for right-handed power, a 40-homer season is certainly attainable this season. Don't be surprised if Encarnacion-Strand's numbers aren't that far off from Pete Alonso this season if he's able to receive more than 600 plate appearances.
Seiya Suzuki Goes .300/100/30/100
After a pinch-hit strikeout on August 7th, Seiya Suzuki's slash line dropped to an uninspiring .249/.327/.388. However, from August 9 through the end of the season, Suzuki slashed .356/.414/.672 with 15 doubles and 11 home runs in 198 plate appearances. And when you look at his metrics, Suzuki appears poised for his best Major League season to date in 2024.
In 2023, Suzuki displayed above-average Quality of Contact metrics with a 10.5% barrel rate, 91.4 mph AVG EV, and 48% hard-hit rate while also making plenty of contact in general. Suzuki has posted a zone contact rate over 86% and a SwStr rate of 8% or less in both seasons so far with an overall contact rate of 80.8% in 2023. With his metrics and solid lineup around him in Chicago (especially if they resign Bellinger), Suzuki could easily finish with at least 100 runs, 100 RBI, 30 home runs, and a .300 AVG in 2024. He's one of my favorite OF2 targets in 2024 drafts.
Emmet Sheehan Out Earns Walker Buehler
Yes, it helps that Buehler isn't going to be ready for the start of the season, but I was debating this bold prediction even before that news came out. Buehler is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and showed declining skills before landing on the IL, especially in the bat-missing department. After recording a 29.2% strikeout rate in 2019, Buehler's strikeout rate dipped in each of the next three seasons while his zone contact rate rose. I'm not saying he'll be bad, but those metrics trending in the wrong way along with all the missed time have me avoiding Buehler in 2024 drafts.
Emmet Sheehan over his final seven appearances (5 GS).
- 31 IP, 3.19 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8.4% BB, 35.3% K, .176 BAA
- Whiff rate above 40% on SL/CH/SW
- Had some BABIP luck too, but the profile is solid.Love his ADP around pick 250 this year.#FantasyBaseball #Dodgers pic.twitter.com/rfUJBIALTu
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) February 12, 2024
Meanwhile, the direct beneficiary from Buehler missing the start of the season will likely be Emmet Sheehan. In 60.1 innings as a rookie last season, Sheehan finished with a 4.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP but his xERA was 3.50 and all three secondaries had a BAA under .200 and a whiff rate over 40%. If Sheehan can get around 150 innings this season, I'd bank on him vastly outperforming his ADP near pick 250 and probably finishing with more value than Buehler as well.
Shane Baz Finishes as a Top 25 Fantasy SP
When you watch Shane Baz pitch or dive into his profile, this bold prediction doesn't seem too outlandish. The talent is absolutely there but, unfortunately, the health has not been. That's really the only aspect of Baz's profile that makes this a bold prediction. Will he get enough innings to be able to make this prediction come true?
If the answer to that question is yes, than I'm fully on board with the top 25 SP finish. Back in 2021, Baz finished with a 2.06 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 4.4% walk rate, and a 37.9% strikeout rate in 17 starts between Double-A and Triple-A and has a career 21.7% K-BB rate so far in nine Major League starts. In both 2021 and 2022, Baz's slider and curveball recorded a whiff rate above 40%, and he went to the duo 51.6% of the time in 2022. If Baz can get into the 130-140 inning range, there's a massive ROI possibility at his ADP.
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