RADIO
So what's a "sleeper" anyway? In its purest form, it's a player that's being "slept" on. They are players who should be valued more highly by the fantasy football community for one reason or another. No, De'Von Achane is not a sleeper, stop kidding yourself. But maybe Raheem Mostert is? Maybe, maybe not, considering the role we expect Achane to play in his second season.
In Best Ball, we want to focus our attention on guys that have big potential. No, that's not AJ Dillon or Khalil Herbert, sorry to crush your dreams. Instead, it's guys that have juice and/or a nice opportunity in front of them. When opportunity knocks, these guys should be able to take full advantage.
In 2023, Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, and Raheem Mostert all fit the bill as running back sleepers. This season, I've identified four new backs that are currently extremely undervalued. That's just my opinion, but I feel really good about these four guys far out-producing their current average draft position (ADP) on Underdog. Here they are, my 2024 Best Ball Running Back Sleepers.
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2024 Best Ball Running Back Sleepers
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Spears is electric. As a rookie, he was 5th among running backs in yards created per touch (4.58) and breakaway run rate (7.0%), per PlayerProfiler. A breakaway run is any rush of 15 yards or longer, so Tyjae was consistently breaking long ones despite a below-average offensive line. The consensus has Tennessee taking an offensive lineman with their first-round pick, which should make it even easier for Spears to operate in 2024.
“But Adam, what about Tony Pollard who the Titans signed to a three-year, $21.75M contract, isn’t he the guy you want?” Did you see Pollard try to operate as the bell-cow in Dallas last season without Ezekiel Elliott? His efficiency took a nosedive with the heavier workload. The Titans are most definitely going to scale that back. But how will the roles be defined between Pollard and Spears? Here’s head coach Brian Callahan referring to his backs as “interchangeable” on multiple occasions:
.@Titans HC Brian Callahan on the pairing of RBs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, and how the team plans to use them. pic.twitter.com/bn8Iq3V1ay
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) March 25, 2024
If they’re truly interchangeable, give me the younger guy who looked electric last season vs. the guy coming off a season with 300+ touches who couldn’t handle a heavy workload. Pollard was so much better in 2022 when he played between 40% and 55% of the snaps. Spears also had 70 targets as a rookie, a sign the team trusts him in high-value situations.
Spears has a current ADP of 103.5 (RB31), while Pollard has an ADP of 80.9 (RB21). Give me that sweet discount every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Opportunity knocks for Mr. Moss in 2024. His first couple of years in the NFL were a bit rough. Despite what many people saw as an opportune landing spot in Buffalo, he never really took off.
But then he landed in Indianapolis and got those opportunities in 2022 and 2023 with injuries to Jonathan Taylor. He more than made the most of those opportunities, even showcasing his abilities as a three-down back. It clearly caught Zac Taylor’s attention as he called Moss “a great fit for what we’re doing on offense” and mentioned his ability to play on all three downs at the NFL’s Annual League Meeting in Orlando, FL.
It’s possible Chase Brown eats into the pie a little more than he did last season with Joe Mixon operating as the primary back. But, it’s also possible this Bengals coaching staff likes a veteran as the primary back, like with Mixon last season. The 27-year-old was 3rd among all running backs in opportunity share (78.9%) and 7th in weighted opportunities per game (15).
Moss is entering his 5th year in the league and is a high-IQ player. He’ll likely get the first crack at the “starting” job and could legitimately run with it and never look back. You’ll recall Mixon had over 1,400 total yards and 12 total touchdowns a season ago en route to a back-end RB1 finish. Moss is currently being drafted as RB34 with an ADP of 108.4. Maybe the Bengals draft somebody and crush this dream, but why? Moss is more than capable of shouldering the load (with some Brown sprinkled in).
Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos
Draft good running backs! Often, teams will eventually have no choice but to play them more because they’re good, if not better than, the team’s “starter.” That sentiment rings extremely true for Broncos 2nd-year back Jaleel McLaughlin. Just check out this chart for a minute.
Which RBs were the most elusive in 2023?
Missed Tackles Forced and Yards After Contact per Touch via @FantasyPtsData
- Hard not to be impressed with James Conner at his age
- Khalil Herbert breaks tackles but doesn't separate after
- Jaleel McLaughlin is going to hurt me pic.twitter.com/cQUNZnKC0d
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 26, 2024
McLaughlin was one of the most elusive backs last season, while “starter” Javonte Williams was actually one of the least elusive backs last season. Many will point to Williams coming off a significant knee injury, and while that’s true, it’s no guarantee he ever gets back to what he once was either.
Yes, it’s true that McLaughlin only had 107 touches as a rookie to Javonte’s 264, so in all likelihood, that elusiveness is a little skewed. However, it says something that the gap is as large as it is between him and Williams.
And with his ability as a pass-catcher, it’s quite possible McLaughlin can become what Sean Payton had in New Orleans with Alvin Kamara or Darren Sproles. At the end of last season, Payton mentioned that “periodically, he’ll come up and he wants to expand his role as a receiver in that, if you will, ‘Joker’ category.” Let’s see if his elusiveness can get him those extra touches this season. With an ADP of 151.2 (RB45), I’m willing to take that gamble. This kid is electric.
Jaleel McLaughlin has the JUICE!pic.twitter.com/OZyHqnK0To
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 8, 2023
Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
You’ll notice somewhat of a theme here with these sleeper running backs. They are guys who haven’t shouldered a big workload before and have declining incumbents in front of them. Kendre Miller fits a similar bill heading into the 2024 season.
Miller was highly productive at TCU and was the 4th running back off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft as the 71st pick overall. But it was an injury-riddled rookie season for Kendre, and he never really found his footing. That could all change this season, especially as Alvin Kamara continues to decline as a productive rusher. Check this out:
Alvin Kamara’s Missed Tackles Forced per Touch Rank @FantasyPtsData:
2021: 14th
2022: 25th
2023: 47thExpected Fantasy Points per Game Rank:
2023 Weeks 1-9: 1st
Weeks 10-18: 13thIf I’m worried about any RB falling off a production cliff in Year 8, it’s Kamara. pic.twitter.com/ZPHuvyNvSU
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 31, 2024
Kamara regressed in a big way last season. With Jamaal Williams’ struggles (career-low 2.89 yards per carry) and Miller being injured on and off throughout the season, the Saints had no choice but to feed Kamara. But that could all change in 2024 with a fully healthy Miller heading into training camp.
Both Kamara and Williams are 28 years old and showed signs of regression in 2023. Miller is just 21 years old and is just two years removed from an extremely productive 2022 season at TCU. With an Underdog ADP of 153.4 (RB46), there’s not much risk with a very high reward should he take on a bigger piece of the pie in the Saints’ backfield in 2024.
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