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Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Rocket Mortgage. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Rocket Mortgage on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Rocket Mortgage
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Detroit Golf Club
7,370 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass (With Poa Annua Mix)
Detroit Golf Club will host the Rocket Mortgage Classic for the fourth consecutive year, but it is hard to say that the first few iterations went according to plan. Winning scores of 25-under and 23-under took home the title in 2019 and 2020, and while the total did shrink to 18-under last season, 134 golfers have managed to reach double-digit totals during the first three years of the event.
From a structural perspective, Donald Ross designed the venue in 1914, and the tree-lined nature of the facility hasn't seen much change from the day it was built. In theory, that potential for blockage mixed with the four-inch thick rough and methodically placed bunkers should create a more difficult path to finding success, but a lot of the danger can still be taken out of play because of the wide-open nature of the land.
Golfers hit four percent more fairways here than a standard stop, and the 11-yard increase in distance from 282 yards to 293 yards emphasizes how length can create an advantage, even if it is not the only path to finding success. The greens feature a combination of Bentgrass and Poa, which roll on the slower side of the equation, and all four par-fives are scorable and will allow eagles chances for those willing to take a few risks.
Unfortunately, the handicapping metrics become a bit of a problem past the rudimentary information that I just laid out. Strokes gained off the tee, around the green and approach are each a few percentage points below tour average when we look at the dispersion in scores, meaning putting sees a six percent increase in importance over a standard track.
As someone that doesn't incorporate a ton of putting into my model on a good week, it creates an uncomfortable position for my research, but I believe there are ways to get unique in the breakdown by trying to project the data out in a fashion that looks at both iron proximity and morphs it into a category to see who not only can create the most chances but also make them.
I can talk about that more this week on my Bettor Golf Podcast, but think of a venue that is going to produce fireworks, and let's try to find the most likely producers of that shootout nature by combining some numbers into one new metric.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Detroit Golf Club | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 293 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 66% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 72% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 62% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.52 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted Par-Four (15%)
- Weighted Par-Five (20%)
- Overall Birdie or Better (10%)
- Sand Save (10%)
- Weighted Prox + Weighted Putt (35%)
- OTT + APP (10%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Safest Play: Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) - The form is starting to trend again for Patrick Cantlay, as we have seen him post five straight top-14 finishes since the Memorial in June. Cantlay's expected proximity for Detroit Golf Club is 58 spots better than at a standard track, and he also ranks fourth in weighted putting, first in overall birdie or better percentage and second in par-five scoring.
Most Upside: Will Zalatoris ($10,400) -A birdie fest where you have to make putts doesn't exactly sound like the kind of stop where Will Zalatoris will pick up his first win, but I think it is essential to realize the plethora of makeable looks he will provide himself for the week, not to mention the tap-in birdies that should come frequently. Zalatoris ranks first in this field when combining off the tee + approach metrics and also ranks as the top player in the event when looking at each individually. That is a deadly combination if the putter can be average.
Favorite GPP Will Zalatoris ($10,400)
Fade: Cameron Young ($10,100) - There are a handful of similarities between Cameron Young and Will Zalatoris, but the difference comes into play when looking at weighted proximity - a category where Young decreases his performance when mimicking the data to fit Detroit Golf Club by 25 spots. Yes, the off-the-tee data might help him to find success, but I'd prefer a safer target all around, something we get from the other three golfers in this range.
Most Likely Winner: Patrick Cantlay ($10,700)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Safest Play: Cameron Davis ($9,700) - "Cameron Davis" and "safe" usually don't go together, but the Aussie enters the week as not only the defending champion but also has provided three top-16 finishes in a row. Let's see where the ownership trends over the next few days, but we should have enough parity in popularity that playing who your model likes will be easy enough.
Most Upside: Max Homa ($9,900) - Max Homa will be making his third trip to Detroit Golf Club, and while course history is relatively meaningless regarding what to expect this week, I don't think the extra reps will hurt. Homa's weighted proximity + weighted putting numbers place him third in my model, and it feels like the perfect venue for him to use his ball-striking acumen as a significant advantage.
Favorite Contrarian GPP: Adam Scott ($9,300) - I prefer Max Homa or Cameron Davis when starting a lineup, but I'll change the terminology of this question to "Favorite Contrarian GPP Target." Scott currently ranks outside the top-25 in projected popularity on DraftKings, but his top-five rank in upside makes him well worth a look as a golfer that can give you a high-end result at marginal ownership.
Fade: Kevin Kisner ($9,100) - Detroit Golf Club has some of the least predictive rollover course history totals of any venue on tour. Yes, Kisner has been brilliant with back-to-back top-eight finishes, but we are paying for that narrative in spades at $9,100. I'd much prefer to target a golfer like Adam Scott at ($9,300) - someone who is going just as under-the-radar but seems better suited for success right now.
Most Likely Winner: Max Homa ($9,900)
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
I will likely be fading this range for the most part. Let's see where the ownership goes on Adam Hadwin ($8,400), Webb Simpson ($8,300) and Russell Henley ($8,200), but all are volatile choices and might come in at too much popularity. I like a more boom-or-bust build this week of multiple choices $9,000 and above + multiple $7,900 and below.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-50 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against both their DraftKings price and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field, but this condensed things down nicely as a first run.
Seung Yul Noh, Justin Lower and Satoshi Kodaira are my three favorite 6k plays right now.
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