RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot on 10/11/25. Alen's MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
For the first time in 10 years, we have a UFC Fight Night in Rio, and I think it's safe to say that UFC has put out quite a solid card. The last time UFC had a Fight Night in Rio was in 2015 when Demian Maia and Ryan LaFlare headlined the UFC Fight Night 62 card. This event will mark the promotion's 13th visit to Rio de Janeiro and its first since UFC 301 in May 2024. Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira returns home to take on Mateusz Gamrot, who is replacing the injured Rafael Fiziev, in the main event of UFC Rio. The co-main event is set to feature former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo taking on the surging Montel Jackson.
On the main card of UFC Rio, UFC veteran Vicente Luque faces off against Joel Alvarez, who will be making his welterweight debut, followed by a heavyweight bout between Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto. Also on the main card, featherweights Ricardo Ramos and Kaan Ofli are set for a scrap after a featherweight fight between Lucas Almeida and Michael Aswell.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot on 10/11/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Charles Oliveira, $7.8K - vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot are scheduled to headline UFC Rio on Saturday. Oliveira will look to get back in the win column while Gamrot looks for his second consecutive win.
No one has more submissions that Charles Oliveira👏
@CharlesDoBronxs’ signature Rear Naked Choke is almost automatic!B2YB: @Wingstop🍗 pic.twitter.com/wPlESQVAwC
— UFC (@ufc) October 8, 2025
Former lightweight champion Oliveira returns this weekend, hoping to get one step closer to the title shot. Oliveira, an all-time leader in finishes, submissions, and bonuses, is 4-3 in his past seven fights. He became the lightweight champion back in 2021 by finishing Michael Chandler via second-round TKO.
"Do Bronxs" defended the title twice, against Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, before losing it to Islam Makhachev back in 2022 in the UFC 280 main event. Since then, he's fought four times, going 2-2. He finished Beneil Dariush via first-round TKO and defeated Chandler again, this time dominating him for five rounds.
He was last seen in action in June at UFC 317, where he fought Ilia Topuria for the lightweight title but was quickly dispatched and knocked out in the first round.
Gamrot has been extremely close to getting a title shot multiple times, but he hasn't been able to beat the top competition. He has lost only three times in his career, and that was to Guram Kutateladze in his UFC debut back in 2020, Dariush, and Dan Hooker. Looking at those three losses, Gamrot was only soundly defeated by Dariush, while his other two losses were split-decision losses that could have gone either way.
Gamrot and Hooker had a war, and as a result, it took Gamrot nine months to get back in the Octagon. The 34-year-old Gamrot was last seen in action in May at UFC Vegas 107, where he returned to the win column by defeating Ľudovít Klein via unanimous decision.
Oliveira enters this fight with an MMA record of 35-11 with one NC and 23-11 with one NC in the UFC. He averages 3.41 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Oliveira absorbs 3.26 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 48%. His grappling is elite, averaging 2.23 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.6 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 39% and his takedown defense is 56%.
Gamrot comes into this fight with an MMA record of 25-3 with one NC and 8-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Gamrot is absorbing 3.04 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 5.33 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 36%, and his takedown defense is 90%.
Oliveira was originally scheduled to face off against Rafael Fiziev, but Fiziev was forced out of the fight due to injury. At first glance, it seems that the odds are not in Oliveira's favor as he was preparing to face a fighter who has a completely different fighting style. Gamrot, who is known for his wrestling, accepted to step up as a replacement for Fiziev, who is one of the best strikers in the lightweight division.
Gamrot just might wrestle and hold down Oliveira for five rounds, but watching his fight with Hooker and seeing him turn into a "panic wrestler" when he wasn't able to hold Hooker down makes me think that Oliveira will find the way to get up, and that's going to frustrate Gamrot.
Even though Oliveira has been training to face a striker, I think that we'll see that tough and resilient Oliveira back in this fight. My prediction is that Oliveira will finish Gamrot via fourth- or fifth-round TKO.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Montel Jackson, $9.0K - vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Streaking Montel Jackson is set to take on former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in the co-main event of UFC Rio on Saturday. Jackson will look to extend his win streak while Figueiredo aims to bounce back in the win column.
The man's hand speed is a PROBLEM 😮💨
Montel Jackson looks to continue his climb up the ranks at #UFCRio! pic.twitter.com/d0J7jJs20p
— UFC (@ufc) October 8, 2025
Jackson has been on an absolute tear, winning nine of his last 10 UFC appearances. He signed with the UFC back in 2018 after finishing Rico DiSciullo via third-round TKO on "Dana White's Contender Series." He suffered his first loss in his UFC debut against Ricky Simon, but he bounced back by submitting Brian Kelleher in the first round.
Jackson went on a three-fight winning streak before suffering his second professional loss to Brett Johns. Since losing to Johns, Jackson has been unstoppable, winning six fights in a row. His recent wins include decision wins over Daniel Marcos and knockout wins over Da’Mon Blackshear and Rani Yahya.
Figueiredo had a legendary run at flyweight, but it was extremely hard for him to make weight. After losing for the second time to Brandon Moreno at UFC 283 in January 2023, Figueiredo made the strategic decision to move up in weight. In his bantamweight debut, Figueiredo soundly defeated Rob Font to claim a unanimous decision victory.
Figueiredo won three straight at bantamweight, beating Font, former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt, and former title challenger Marlon Vera before suffering his first loss at bantamweight to former champion Petr Yan. The former flyweight champion is now on a two-fight skid, having lost to Yan and, more recently, to Cory Sandhagen after suffering a knee injury.
Jackson enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-2 and 9-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.22 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Jackson is absorbing 1.39 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 62%. His grappling is solid, averaging 3.24 takedowns every 15 minutes. Jackson has a takedown accuracy of 62% and a takedown defense of 68%.
Figueiredo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 24-5-1 and 13-5-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.82 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Figueiredo absorbs 3.64 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 35%, and he has a takedown defense of 58%.
The size difference between the two fighters is substantial, as Jackson holds a five-inch height advantage and a seven-inch reach advantage over Figueiredo. Figueiredo has knockout power and elite grappling, but he hasn't been able to dominate his opponents the way he did at flyweight. Plus, his durability is not what it once was.
Jackson should be able to win this, as long as he doesn't brawl with Figueiredo. And although this is the toughest test of his career, at least on paper, Jackson's size and reach advantage may be too much for Figueiredo. My prediction is that Jackson is going to win by unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joel Alvarez, $9.5K - vs. Vicente Luque
On Saturday, Joel Alvarez and Vicente Luque are facing off in a welterweight bout on the main card of UFC Rio. Alvarez steps in as a replacement for Santiago Ponzinibbio, who withdrew from the bout due to injury.
El Fenómeno! 🚨
Joel Alvarez looks for an early stoppage in his welterweight debut at #UFCRio!
[ OCT 11 | 7pmET on the @ESPN app ] pic.twitter.com/XXd9JS4zyG
— UFC (@ufc) October 9, 2025
Alvarez is making his welterweight debut after competing at lightweight throughout his UFC career. "El Fenomeno" enters this fight as the heavy favorite, and it's easy to see why. After losing his UFC debut to Damir Ismagulov, Alvarez went on a tear, finishing his next four opponents, with three of those fights ending in the first round.
Alvarez had a setback against Arman Tsarukyan, losing via second-round TKO, but he returned to the win column by submitting Marc Diakiese with a second-round D’Arce choke before stopping Elves Brener via third-round TKO and Drakkar Klose via first-round knockout.
Luque aims to get back in the win column after suffering a second-round submission loss to Kevin Holland at UFC 316 earlier this year. Since 2022, Luque hasn't been able to stay consistent. He's gone 2-4 with three of those defeats coming by stoppage. Luque is one of the most experienced welterweights on the roster, having gone 16-7 in the UFC with nearly half of his wins coming by knockout.
A few years ago, Luque was considered one of the best welterweights on the planet, having defeated Tyron Woodley and Belal Muhammad, but he has slowed down significantly, showing signs of decline.
Alvarez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-3 and 7-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.51 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Alvarez absorbs 3.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. He has yet to show any grappling ability, but does average 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes. He also has a takedown defense of 40%.
Luque enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-11-1. He is averaging 5.02 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Luque absorbs 5.25 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. Regarding his grappling, Luque is averaging 0.97 takedowns every 15 minutes. Luque has a takedown accuracy of 51% and a takedown defense of 61%.
Even though Alvarez is moving up a weight class, the size difference between the two fighters is substantial. Alvarez has a height, reach, and momentum advantage, not to mention that he's fresher, younger, and faster than Luque. There was a time when Luque was able to absorb a shocking amount of damage and still keep coming back, but he's been through wars and is not as durable as before.
I don't think Luque will even attempt to take Alvarez down, and on the feet, Alvarez is a more technical fighter. My prediction is that Alvarez will knock Luque out either in the first or the second round.
