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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev on 8/16/25. Alen's MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The card of the year and possibly the most anticipated fight of the year is finally among us as UFC returns to Chicago this weekend. The event will mark the promotion's eighth visit to Chicago and first since UFC 238 in June 2019. In the main event of UFC 319, Dricus Du Plessis puts his middleweight crown on the line against undefeated Khamzat Chimaev after prospect Aaron Pico makes his UFC debut against undefeated Lerone Murphy in the co-main event.
Tim Elliott and former Rizin bantamweight champion Kai Asakura are scheduled for a three-round bantamweight bout on the UFC 319 main card opener. Following that, former middleweight title challenger Jared Cannonier is scheduled to face off against Michael "Venom" Page, who will be having his second middleweight fight since signing with the promotion. Also on the card, we have a banger of a fight between two strikers who possess incredible knockout power, and if you ask me, this fight will not go the distance, and someone will get knocked out.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev on 8/16/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dricus Du Plessis, $7.3K - vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis and undefeated phenom Khamzat Chimaev are scheduled for the UFC 319 main event on Saturday. Du Plessis will look to defend the middleweight title for the third time, and Chimaev aims to become the new middleweight champion.
The man is a PROBLEM 😮💨@DricusDuPlessis looks to grab his 3rd title defense Saturday at #UFC319! pic.twitter.com/mQCCGFdcGb
— UFC (@ufc) August 13, 2025
Du Plessis is making his third title defense since becoming the middleweight champion by defeating Sean Strickland via split decision in January 2024 at UFC 297. After beating Strickland, Du Plessis made his first title defense in August 2024 at UFC 305 by submitting former two-time middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. His last fight was in February at UFC 312, where he had a rematch with former middleweight champion Sean Strickland. Their first fight was extremely close, but Du Plessis dominated Strickland in their second encounter to win a unanimous decision. The last time Du Plessis lost a fight was back in 2018 to Roberto Soldic, and since then, he has won 11 fights.
When he joined the promotion, Chimaev was accepting fights right and left, fighting both at welterweight and middleweight, and had three fights in two months. But during COVID, Chimaev was as active as before, as he was dealing with constant injuries and illnesses. The next fight he had was against Li Jingliang, and Chimaev quickly submitted Jingliang in the first round. His next fight was against former title challenger Gilbert Burns, and it was Chimaev's first true test, as the fight was extremely close, but in the end, Chimaev managed to win via unanimous decision. He was last seen in action back in October 2024 at UFC 308, where he submitted former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker in the first round.
Du Plessis enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-2 and 9-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.12 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Du Plessis is absorbing 4.90 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 2.55 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 50%.
Chimaev enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-0 and 8-0 in the UFC. He averages 5.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. Chimaev absorbs 3.25 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 41%. Chimaev also has elite grappling, averaging 4.31 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.8 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 100%.
Most will side with Chimaev, and most think that Chimaev will submit Du Plessis in the first or second round. I'm not so sure. A few times that I picked Du Plessis' opponent over him, he pulled the win out of nowhere and surprised me each time. So this time, I'm picking Du Plessis to win this fight. In my opinion, Chimaev has a round or maybe two to finish Du Plessis, and if he doesn't do it, Du Plessis will tire him out and either knock him out or win via decision.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Aaron Pico, $8.2K - vs. Lerone Murphy
On Saturday's UFC 319 co-main event, undefeated Lerone Murphy is scheduled to welcome Aaron Pico to the UFC. Murphy aims to keep his undefeated record while Pico looks for his first UFC win.
Get ready to see the power from Aaron Pico 👊
He makes his UFC debut this weekend at #UFC319 👀
[ LIVE SAT 10pmET on @ESPNPlus PPV | 📺 : https://t.co/LesqDZC0KP ] pic.twitter.com/7gcXgd5Q0B
— UFC (@ufc) August 13, 2025
Murphy made his UFC debut back in 2019 against Zubaira Tukhugov, where he fought to a draw. Since then, Murphu has been nothing short of perfect. His resume includes impressive unanimous decision wins over top names like Dan Ige and Edson Barboza. Murphy was last seen in action in April at UFC Vegas 105, where he defeated extremely durable Josh Emmet via unanimous decision. "The Miracle" is known as a well-rounded fighter who has great takedown defense and who likes to combine his crisp striking with underrated wrestling. Although he boasts an undefeated UFC record of 8-0-1, Murphy has been criticised in the past because of his lack of "killer instinct" and his habit of winning his fights via unanimous or split decision.
His opponent, Aaron Pico, is scheduled to make his UFC debut against a tricky fighter in Murray. Pico is a highly-touted prospect who is known for his devastating knockout power and his well-rounded game, as he has a solid background in wrestling and boxing, having competed in Olympic trials for the USA team and been a former national Golden Glove winner. However, his early career in Bellator was marred by defensive lapses, leading to multiple knockout losses. Since his knockout loss to Adam Borics back in 2019, Pico has gotten back on track, winning nine of his last 10 fights. Pico was last seen in action in February 2024 at PFL vs. Bellator: Champs, where he finished Henry Corrales via first-round TKO.
Murphy enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-0-1. He is averaging 4.53 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Murphy absorbs 2.48 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling is solid as well, averaging 1.45 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 54% and a takedown defense of 52%.
Pico enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-4, and he will be making his UFC debut here. He has a total of 11 finishes in his career so far, nine via knockout/TKO and two by submission, while three of his four losses have also been by finish.
Although Murray is a fantastic, well-rounded fighter, I have seen him a few times having tough and close fights with fighters who are not on the level of Aaron Pico. He usually goes the distance, and I don't think he'll be able to outpoint Pico. He looked good in his fight with Emmet, no doubt about it, but he didn't have a spectacular performance, or even a performance where people could see him as a potential champion one day. Not only that, but Murphy accepted this fight on short notice and hasn’t had a full camp specifically for Pico. Pico has matured from the time he fought Boric, and he's not going to engage in a brawl with Murphy. I'm not sure Pico will be able to finish Murphy, but I see Pico mixing his takedowns and his striking, and winning by a unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Carlos Prates, $9.1K - vs. Geoff Neal
Welterweights Carlos Prates and Geoff Neal are scheduled for a three-round bout on the main card of UFC 319 on Saturday. Prates will look to get back in the win column while Neal aims to win back-to-back fights. Prates and Neal were originally scheduled to fight in April, but Neal was forced off the UFC 314 lineup.
He's a 𝖓𝖎𝖌𝖍𝖙𝖒𝖆𝖗𝖊 to deal with in the standup 😮💨
Carlos Prates brings action to the Octagon every time he steps in it! #UFC319 pic.twitter.com/gHxS9jBgkw
— UFC (@ufc) August 14, 2025
Instead of facing Neal in his last bout, Prates faced off against Ian Machado Garry in April at UFC Kansas City, and it didn't go Prates' way as he lost via unanimous decision. The loss snapped Prates’ six-year, 11-fight unbeaten streak, which included four knockouts in a row over the likes of Jingliang Li and Neil Magny since joining the UFC a year before. It was Prates' first time going beyond the third round in his 28-fight career. Known for his devastating knockout power, Prates is hopeful that a win over Neal can put him in the title contention.
Just like his opponent, Neal is known for his devastating knockout power and his finishing instinct. Neal was last seen in action last year in October at UFC 308, where he got back in the win column by defeating former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos via first-round TKO after dos Anjos suffered a knee injury. Prior to his bout with dos Anjos, Neal lost back-to-back fights. He first lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov via third-round submission after a close back-and-forth fight, and then he dropped a split decision to Ian Machado Garry. In recent years, even though Neal hasn't been able to win three in a row, Neal has only lost to the elite welterweights.
Prates enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-7 and 4-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.60 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Prates is absorbing 4.79 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 48%. He has shown little grappling ability, averaging just 0.25 takedowns every 15 minutes. That said, he has a takedown accuracy of 100% and a takedown defense of 83%.
Neal enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-6 and 8-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.05 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Neal absorbs 5.44 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. Regarding his grappling ability, Neal is averaging just 0.56 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 87%.
I'm almost certain this fight won't go the distance. Both Prates and Neal have incredible knockout power. However, in his UFC career thus far, Prates hasn't been dominated or outclassed like Neal was in the past. In his last fight with Machado Garry, Prates was too hesitant, and he didn't pull the trigger in time. I think his approach is going to be different this time. He's likely going to put the pressure on Neal and search for the knockout. My prediction is that Prates will knock Neal out in the second or third round.
