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Benjamin looks at top MLB prospects risers for fantasy baseball Week 4 (2023). These minor league hitters and pitchers off to hot starts and are fantasy risers.
Reviewing the publicly-available Statcast data for Triple-A and the Florida State League in Single-A, there are plenty of hitters and pitchers that stand out this week across minor league baseball. However, do those big numbers translate to a fantasy-viable player?
After the first full week of lower-level minor league play and the second full week of Triple-A baseball, plenty of players have shown enough to determine if they are truly an add for dynasty (or redraft) or if they should be left on the waiver wire for someone else. We'll take a look at some Statcast leaders over the past week in this edition along with the weekly six-pack of hitters and pitchers to consider for fantasy.
Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty leagues pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Exit velocity leaders for April 11-16 - Jo Adell 117.2, Peyton Burdick 116.2, Fernando Tatis Jr 115.4, Trevor Boone 115.3, Gary Sanchez 115.2
- Batted ball distance leaders for April 11-16 - Tyler Naquin 461, Jordyn Adams 460, Bligh Madris 458, Fernando Tatis Jr 451, Ryan Ward 448
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Peyton Burdick, OF, Miami Marlins
The Marlins selected Burdick in the third round in 2019 out of Wright State, and immediately his power made an impact, as he slugged 11 home runs in just 69 games in his pro debut that season. Burdick has struggled to have the same success with contact since, as he has powered out 38 minor league home runs in the upper levels over 2021-2022, but he has also hit .220 in that time before struggling in 32 MLB games to a .207/.284/.380 slash line.
Demoted to Triple-A to open 2023, Burdick has shown power and athleticism, covering all three outfield spots, hitting seven home runs, and stealing three bases in the first 14 games of the season. The issue is that he’s using a very pull-heavy approach (53% of batted balls to the pull side) and striking out at a 36% clip.
VERDICT: The strikeout rate and change in approach are worrisome, but Miami will be looking for any offense it can muster. No need to pick Burdick up right now, but he’s worth watching to see if he maintains as the season continues.
Jordyn Adams, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Adams has been one of the more impressive players to watch on the field since the Angels selected him 17th overall in the 2018 draft out of high school. The raw athleticism is absolutely tantalizing, but he’s yet to hit above .250 at a full-season stop or tap into his impressive raw power.
This season, the batting average is low to open the season, but it may be hiding improvements that Adams has made, as he’s walking at a 10% rate, has lowered his strikeout rate notably, and he’s finally tapping into his power, with eight extra-base hits over his first 14 games.
VERDICT: Adams has some of the most impressive speed in the game and is a remarkable athlete. If he can get some hits to fall (.219 BABIP thus far), he may force his way to either being traded or pushing his way into the crowded Angels outfield. Hold off for now, but the arrow is up to open the year.
Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Winn could have been a legit pitcher or hitter coming out of high school in 2020, but the Cardinals selected him in the second round and set out to develop his hitting. Winn’s arm is one of the strongest in the game, and his fielding has taken significant leaps forward.
Where fellow 2020 Cardinals’ draftee Jordan Walker’s bat pushed him quickly up the system, Winn’s glove has done the same for him. He’s certainly not a zero at the plate, though, as his 11 home runs and 28 steals in Double-A last season showed. He followed that up with an impressive showing at the Arizona Fall League last year.
Now, he’s among the minor league leaders in stolen bases with seven and is showing off the same impressive glove work, and the Cardinals are getting him time at second base to give him more ability to play at the big league level.
VERDICT: Despite the middling overall stat line, Winn is a guy to definitely get if he’s available in a dynasty format. The Cardinals seem to be getting him exposure at other infield positions to bring him up during 2023, and he won’t be up to sit!
Chase Meidroth, 2B, Boston Red Sox
A fourth-round pick last summer by the Red Sox out of the University of San Diego, Meidroth did nothing but hit in his pro debut, with a .316/.438/.540 slash line over 22 games. He’s continued that work to open 2023.
The 21-year-old opened the season with High-A Greenville, and he’s put up an impressive .364/.588/.545 line thus far. While Meidroth may not lead to a lot of home runs or stolen bases, he’s walked more than he struck out so far while continuing to show impressive contact ability. He’s not a great defender anywhere on the field, and his arm is below average, but if he keeps hitting, there will be a spot in the lineup somewhere for him!
VERDICT: Akin to Edouard Julien with the Twins, Meidroth could be a guy who simply hits and gets on base so much that he forces his way onto the MLB roster, despite defensive limitations. Deep dynasty stash right now.
Andy Pages, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
In a system as deep as the Dodgers’ is, the Cuban-born Pages can seem to fall off when he has a tough time adapting to the high minors, as Pages did in 2022 after crushing 31 home runs in High-A the previous year. The power was still present (26 home runs), but Pages struggled to control the strike zone.
After dedicating himself to conditioning over the offseason, Pages came into camp having trimmed off roughly 20-30 pounds of bad weight, and it’s allowed his natural jumps in the outfield to play up, as he’s handled center field most of the season with arguably below-average speed.
The most impressive part of Pages’ early-season stat line is that he’s walking more than he strikes out as he’s slashed .393/.561/.750 over the first nine games of the Double-A season. The raw power is still there, and he’s showing more athleticism with his leaned-down frame.
VERDICT: Many dropped Pages last season in dynasty leagues or haven’t exactly picked up on the change for him. He should draw plenty of trade interest this year, and he could push his way to the Dodgers by the end of the season if he isn’t moved. He should be owned in all dynasty formats.
Cole Young, SS, Seattle Mariners
A scout’s darling ahead of the 2022 draft, Young fell to the 21st overall selection despite many feeling he had some of the most impressive tools of any prep hitter available. He then slashed .367/.523/.517 over 17 games in his pro debut, setting the stage for this year.
Young has been a near-impossible out for pitchers in the California League to open 2023, as he’s slashed .382/.533/.618 with more walks than strikeouts and four stolen bases. While he may not be a shortstop long-term, his arm should allow him to handle third well, and the bat will make him extremely valuable.
VERDICT: While a few years away still, if Young somehow slipped through your FYPD this offseason, make him a priority add for long-range prospects.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Top velocity leaders April 11-16 - Mason Miller 101.8, Mason Miller 101.8, Mason Miller 101.5, Aneurys Zabala 101.3, Mason Miller 101.3
- Swing-and-miss leaders April 11-16 - Justin Lange 25, J.P. France 22, Jake Kalish 20, Mason Miller 20, Quinn Priester 19, Rafael Sanchez 19
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Mason Miller, SP, Oakland Athletics
If anyone had any doubts about Miller before this week’s start for Triple-A Las Vegas, they should be gone now. Miller absolutely dominated Salt Lake (and minor league home run leader Jo Adell), with five innings that saw the only baserunner reach base on a dropped third strike. Miller generated 20 swings and misses over the start and recorded six of the top seven velocity readings, reaching or topping 101 MPH an incredible 10 times in the start.
Miller was the darling of the Arizona Fall League last fall as injuries had held the promising righty to just 20 professional innings since he was drafted in the third round in 2021 out of Gardner-Webb. He struck out 20 over 16 2/3 innings in the AFL, and his pure stuff had scouts talking about four plus-grade pitches in his arsenal.
The biggest concern for fantasy owners is the lack of pro innings, as the A’s will likely want to keep Miller’s pitches in check this season. While the Oakland system is deep with backend starter types in the upper levels, none have Miller’s upside.
VERDICT: Even with the potential for an innings restriction, run, don’t walk, to add Miller as he’s going to have the opportunity and home ballpark to succeed once he reaches Oakland.
Justin Lange, SP, New York Yankees
Lange was a fireballing pitcher taken in the 2020 draft by the Padres before being traded to the Yankees last spring. Like most pitchers who hit peak velocity while in high school, his control was severely lacking, leading to many Yankees' top 30 lists excluding the 21-year-old.
The Yankees worked with the 6’4” righty, and he’s come out showing those improvements in droves. This past week, he generated 25 swings and misses in his second start of the season, leading all of minor league baseball for the week in the stat.
Lange featured his sinker and 4-seam fastball, throwing a fastball 62% of the time, but he’s pounding the zone with his entire arsenal of pitches, resulting in a 17/2 K/BB over 10 innings to open the season.
VERDICT: Lange will likely be widely-available in all dynasty formats, so if you have the roster room in a deep dynasty, grab him now. In a shallow dynasty, it’d be wise to see if the control holds for another start or two, but if it does, add him quickly.
Tobias Myers, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
A guy who has been around the block plenty, Myers is now with his sixth MLB organization since the Orioles originally drafted the righty in 2016 out of high school in the sixth round. Myers is just 24, but needing to remain on the 40-man roster led to him bouncing around quite a bit in 2022, and the results when he was on the mound were not pretty (7.82 ERA over 76 innings).
He signed as a minor league free agent with the Brewers over the offseason, and he’s adjusted his pitch mix slightly while working out things at the Double-A level. Thus far, the results are fruitful, with 16 strikeouts over his first 10 1/3 innings. The big notable jump is his groundball rate, which is now over 40% with more focus on generating weak contact.
VERDICT: Milwaukee has a habit of resurrecting and/or rebuilding young arms with raw talent. Myers still is a wait-and-see, but he’s in the right organization and has the talent to jump up in a hurry.
Ben Kudrna, SP, Kansas City Royals
A trendy pick for a breakout prospect this year, Kudrna was drafted in the second round of the 2021 draft by the Royals out of high school. After flashing impressive raw stuff in 2022 that didn’t quite show up in the results, many figured on him to take a big step forward this season.
That’s not exactly happened over his first two appearances on the season, but owners should be wary of jumping ship. Kudrna’s currently sporting an 11.57 ERA over seven innings, but in that time, he’s allowed a .476 BABIP and home runs are leaving the park at a pretty impressive rate.
He has improved his strikeout and walk rate both this season and currently owns one of the largest disparities in the minors between ERA and FIP (current FIP of 4.41).
VERDICT: No reason to drop if he’s owned in a deep dynasty, but also a good reason to hold off on a speculative add as well. Watch and see.
Emmet Sheehan, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
If Miller was the darling of the AFL, Sheehan was perhaps the biggest eye-opener outside of Miller’s performance. Originally drafted by the Dodgers in the sixth round of the 2021 draft out of Boston College, Sheehan never recorded eye-popping numbers in college, which made his emergence in 2021 (2.91 ERA across High-A and Double-A with 106 strikeouts in 68 innings) notable.
Sheehan works with a deceptive fastball that can touch 98 and mixes a host of other pitches with it, with his changeup emerging as a swing-and-miss pitch during fall action. He’s opened 2023 striking out nearly 50% of hitters over his first 11 2/3 innings, with a crazy 21/3 K/BB ratio.
VERDICT: The Dodgers may have found another one, but where to put all of these talented arms?! Sheehan is a deep dynasty add, but he could transition to the bullpen and watch his stuff really play up or be part of a trade to an organization where he doesn’t have the same competition to get to the majors. Hold off for now in shallow dynasty, but keep a watchful eye.
Justin Martinez, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
When looking at a pitcher that has a 21.60 ERA, dynasty league owners typically check right out. However, the 21-year-old Martinez has really flashed outstanding raw stuff – it’s just a matter of getting it in the zone consistently.
Originally signed in 2018 by the Diamondbacks out of the Dominican Republic, Martinez has been pumping triple-digit fastballs and using a hard slider and a split-finger fastball to offset the heater. The issue has always been control, as he has recorded a 10%+ walk rate at nearly every level.
This past week, Martinez made three appearances, totaling 1 2/3 innings. He walked nine and struck out four in that time, allowing six runs. However, he also generated 11 swings and misses on the week, which is a sign of just how hard it is for hitters to make contact on him when he can locate the ball.
VERDICT: No need to rush for Martinez in any format, but without a clear closer in Arizona, if he can even get his walk rate to his typical career norm, he could be fast-tracked for the role with the Diamondbacks by season end. Watch and pounce if he’s given a shot.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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