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Rookie RB Derrius Guice is out for the 2018 NFL season after suffering an ACL injury in the preseason. Jason Katz explains how to handle the Washington Redskins backfield in his absence for fantasy football leagues yet to draft.
Injuries are literally the worst. On the very first full day of preseason action, we saw four fantasy-relevant injuries, the worst being Derrius Guice's sprained MCL turned torn ACL. Fantasy owners and football fans alike thought Guice had averted disaster after he was initially diagnosed with a sprained MCL, which would have cost him around 4-6 weeks. A few hours later, it was revealed that Guice actually tore his ACL, which will obviously cost him the entire season.
If any of you have already drafted Guice, I feel your pain. Last year, I spent a fifth-round pick on Spencer Ware in one of my leagues before he was lost for the year. As unfortunate as injuries are, the show must go on.
What will happen in Washington's convoluted backfield now? Let's take a look at the impacted parties.
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Same As It Ever Was
The loss of Guice returns us to where we were in 2017 with the Redskins backfield. Chris Thompson's role should remain unchanged. His ADP should see a small increase even though he will never be a three-down back. Thompson was a very good value before Guice's injury. Now, he is clearly the back to own in Washington, but the cost will be a bit inflated. He recently admitted he doesn't expect to be 100% back to full health until November. Depending on where his ADP ends up, Thompson may end up being a pass for me even in full PPR leagues. If he starts to creep into the sixth round, that's where I would start having pause before pulling the trigger.
The Redskins will need an early-down back and that man will likely not be one person. I truly believe that Rob Kelley is the single worst running back on an NFL roster right now. He is arguably the least athletic player in the entire NFL. If you add up the percentiles of all five of his main workout metrics found on playerprofiler.com, it totals the 76th percentile. For comparison purposes, that is 400 points lower than the total of Jerick McKinnon's workout metrics. Suffice to say, Kelley is not good at football.
With that being said, I still anticipate that Jay Gruden will use Kelley in a shared role with the vastly superior Samaje Perine. By no means am I suggesting that Perine is a special talent. He's not. But he's a lot better than Kelley and a lot better than people give him credit for after his poor showing last year, which had a lot to do with the Redskins actually having to sign offensive linemen off the street to start. When healthy, the Redskins have one of the better run blocking units. If Perine were to assume the role Guice was ticketed for, he would have legitimately RB2 value. In an early-down timeshare with Kelley and CT handling most passing downs, I have a hard time seeing how either Perine or Kelley have much value.
Third-year man Byron Marshall now seems likely to earn a roster spot, especially after showing well by catching two balls for 28 yards and a touchdown in the team's first exhibition game, but former Bronco Kapri Bibbs is also battling for a job. Neither is worth your attention at the moment but could be on watch lists in particularly deep leagues.
While I think the following is unlikely, there still exists the possibility that the Redskins seek outside help at the position in the form of DeMarco Murray or Adrian Peterson. If either of them end up in Washington, please ignore them. AP has been done since 2016 and Murray looked completely done late last season - he retired because no one wanted to sign him to a featured role. These two players can no longer help real teams or fake teams.
If I had to pick someone to fill the void left by Guice, it would be Perine. With Thompson locked into at least a 50% snap share though, Perine is nothing more than a double-digit round dart throw with the hopes that he can see about 40% of the snaps. There is no scenario outside of the deepest of deep leagues where I think it is worth it to roster Kelley unless Gruden outright says it will be Kelley and Thompson sharing the work. And even then, Kelley is also just a double-digit round dart throw as well.
As for Guice, he is now sadly an IR stash in dynasty leagues and an instant drop in those leagues that were unfortunate enough to draft before preseason games started. If your league allows transactions before Week 1, it's advisable to grab Perine if available. The effect on the passing game should be negligible from last season, since the Skins now find themselves in the exact same position sans a true feature back. Unfortunately for Washington fans and fantasy owners, the situation remains the same as it ever was.
