RADIO
It was nice to see Drew Pomeranz toss a quality start (finally) and prove that he's not a carcass of a former Rockies pitcher like Jhoulys Chacin. This, however, is a disclaimer that some of these buy-low/sell-high candidates may not pan out right away. Or ever. I'm still hoping that as soon as Domingo Santana hits his first homer, there will be 11 more to follow in the next five days. As always, exercise caution when making trades in your money leagues and only pull the trigger if the price is right.
Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should constantly pursue as a dedicated fantasy baseball manager. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.
I will typically include at least one player at each key position group (infield, outfield, pitcher) and will never advocate that you buy or sell a player if I wouldn't follow the same advice myself. Now, on to the bargaining table...
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Underrated Players - Week 6
Lourdes Gurriel (2B/OF, TOR) 4% owned
With the way I've been jumping all over Gurriel in multiple leagues, I'm surprised his ownership isn't higher just from all the teams I manage! The younger version of Yuli may appear to be a free swinger like his brother because he rarely walks, but that doesn't mean he lacks plate discipline. Gurriel was brought up after hitting .347 to start the season in Double-A, but he also cut his strikeout rate to 10.9% after posting a 16.2% figure last season. Every sample size we have for him is small thus far, but his below-average 9.7% SwStr% and above-average 88.5% Z-Contact% show that has a high likelihood of continuing to knock out base hits. He doesn't much speed to the table, having never stolen double-digit bags even in the Cuban league, but he could have 15-HR upside and hit near .300. In other words, he has a good chance to give you the type of production Devon Travis could have provided if he were ever healthy. If you're still waiting on Jonathan Schoop, DJ LeMahieu, or Rougned Odor to return, Gurriel could be a nice, cheap replacement.
Kevin Pillar (OF, TOR) 70% owned
Anyone else notice that Pillar is quietly one of the top fantasy producers at the outfield position after one month of the 2018 season? It's hard to imagine he'll sustain that, but it's not a stretch to call him a five-category producer either. There aren't any significant change in his plate discipline, although he is taking a few more walks, but the same can't be said for his batted ball profile. He's elevated his line drive rate to an eye-popping 31% and his hard hit rate to 37%. In short, he's scorching the ball in all the right places. We already know he has 25-steal potential, since he did it in 2015. If this is the year he gets his average about the .280 range and pops 20 homers while scoring 100 runs on a suddenly prolific Blue Jays offense, why wouldn't you want to own him?
Alex Verdugo (OF, LAD) 5% owned
It seems too soon for this Dodger prospect to be considered a "post-hype sleeper" but that seems to be the case. With Yasiel Puig and Corey Seager joining Justin Turner on the disabled list, the Blue Crew are going to rely more on their farm system than they ever imagined. Verdugo is unlikely to make a Bellinger-like splash this season, but he's got a plus hit tool and some undeveloped power that could manifest itself with enough regular playing time. That's no longer an issue, as manager Dave Roberts has already said that Verdugo will see plenty of action in place of Puig. While Joc Pederson has more name recognition, Verdugo could provide some pop without the expense of sinking your batting average. He's worth stashing now in deep leagues, especially where keepers are in play.
Michael Fulmer (SP, DET) 76% owned
He may never replicate the numbers from his exceptional rookie season, but it seems that Fulmer has been undervalued ever since he took that ROY award home. A pedestrian strikeout rate has kept him out of the SP1 conversation and will likely always hold him back from being a fantasy ace. That said, there are plenty of high strikeout pitchers who are currently wrecking your ERA (hello, Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, and Robbie Ray). Fulmer doesn't stand out in any way, but that's what makes him undervalued. He won't put free runners on base (2.29 BB/9) and tosses quality starts more often than not. In this era of boom-bust starting pitchers, you may consider solidifying your ratios by acquiring Fulmer from a rival owner looking for more upside.
Overrated Players - Week 6
Francisco Cervelli (C, PIT) 63% owned
Cervelli had a hell of a good week to finish April and lead into May. End of story. If you're in a two-catcher or NL-only league, by all means keep him in your lineup, but otherwise you need to be prepared to move on before reality sinks in. Here's where I break the news that he has already matched last year's entire home run total. For further emphasis, he's never hit more than seven HR over an entire season, even in the minors.
He's made adjustments for sure, leaping into the top 25 for average launch angle (19.2 degrees) among all batters with at least 50 results. Last year he was just a bit lower, ranking 399th in the league (6.2 degrees). His fly ball rate has doubled from the previous two seasons, coming in 20 points higher than his career mark of 30.2%. It's helped him get off to a fast start in the power department, but it certainly doesn't seem sustainable because that's just not his game. Enjoy the homer surge while it lasts, but don't count on him to be your primary backstop throughout the season.
Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) 44% owned
It may be a week too late for this, as Swanson's ownership has already taken a dive due to a sore left wrist that finally landed him on the DL. Still, it should be worth mentioning that he's safe to drop rather than stash. One torrid week reminded us that he was the #1 overall pick in the draft and is part of an exciting young club in Atlanta. One mini-slump later and he's back to being waiver wire fodder. Some have still held on, but despite the improved on-base skills, he's got two dingers and two steals to his name. Swanson just doesn't have the ceiling in those all-important categories to be worth a roster spot just yet. At this point, I'm even buying into former Braves prospect Jose Peraza over him.
Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT) 83% owned
Polanco kept me intrigued for the first couple weeks of the season as he blasted five home runs and looked like he could sustain OF2 value. Hasn't happened. Polanco is finally healthy at least, but his nice start has been wiped out by a .234/1/2 line the last two weeks. He's been anemic against lefties, hitting .158 this year. That's not unusual, as he owns a .207 career average vs LHP. Polanco has never hit higher than .258 in the majors and has stopped stealing bases, so the best you can hope for is a career-high mark in homers. That alone doesn't justify his draft position or the promise once attached to his name.
Jeff Samardzija (SP, SF) 61% owned
To be honest, I believe Samardzija has been overrated ever since he was drafted. A big guy with a big arm that comes out of Notre Dame with a multi-sport resume sure sounds like a winner, but he's never quite lived up to the billing. The Shark can be excused for his slow start because he began the year on the DL, but he's been anything but sharp since returning with 10 walks and 15 hits allowed in his first 13 2/3 innings pitched. Walks have never been a problem for him, so we can expect those to disappear once he shakes the rust off. That doesn't alleviate the concern over his declining velocity, however. Samardzija's fastball is clocking in at 93.3 MPH, the lowest in his career. His splitter and curveball have both lost about three MPH just since last season. Again, this could be ignored if it weren't part of a larger trend over the last couple of years. It feels like there's far more risk than reward here, so I'm staying away altogether.
