Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 12 Lineups

November 26, 2023

Brandon's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 12 season long lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

As we gather around the Thanksgiving table, indulging in the feast of both turkey and football, fantasy managers find themselves faced with tough decisions on who to start and sit in Week 12. Just like the carefully planned Thanksgiving menu, constructing the perfect fantasy football lineup requires strategic thinking and a dash of intuition. In this week's start-sit guide, we'll carve through the matchups to help you navigate the fantasy football landscape during this holiday week, ensuring that your lineup is as satisfying as the Thanksgiving spread.

Much like the diverse flavors of a Thanksgiving meal, NFL matchups in Week 12 offer a variety of opportunities and challenges for fantasy managers. The fantasy feast begins with Thursday's games, and as you watch the football action unfold, you'll want to make sure your fantasy roster is prepared to leave no fantasy points on the table. Whether you're banking on a breakout performance from a sleeper or debating whether to bench a star player, our analysis will serve as your playbook for assembling the ultimate fantasy team during this festive week.

In the spirit of gratitude, we extend our thanks to the fantasy football community for joining us on this exciting journey throughout the season. As we approach the final stretch of the regular season, the decisions made in Week 12 could have a lasting impact on playoff aspirations. So, as you savor the last bites of pumpkin pie, let our start-sit advice guide you toward fantasy success in a week where both the NFL and Thanksgiving traditions intertwine in a delightful and unpredictable dance.

Week 12 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Gardner Minshew - QB, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson, you could say that it has been somewhat of an underperforming year for Gardner Minshew. Outside of the surprising QB1 finish in Week 7 against the stout Browns defense, he has consistently finished as a low-end QB2 and not a player that fantasy managers even think to fit into their lineups. On the season, his 11.5 FPPG is good enough for only QB29, mainly due to his inability to find the end zone (10 total touchdowns in eight games).

Oddly enough, this Colts offense ranks third in the NFL in pace of play (2.24), but this has not led to any type of production from Minshew for fantasy managers to count on. He is also a turnover waiting to happen, ranking inside the top-five at the position in both danger plays (22) and interceptable passes (17). His consistently subpar play has also affected the perceived upside for players like Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.

If there ever was a week for fantasy managers to get their hopes up for positive production from the Colts' offense, it would be in Week 12. Minshew and the passing attack will be staring at perhaps their best matchup of the season in a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A secondary that has been torched over the last four weeks by allowing a league-high 25.89 FPPG. They have surrendered the most passing yards (1,326) over that span as well as being tied in touchdowns allowed (10).

Coming out of the bye, the hope is that Minshew and the offense will be prepared and come out firing on all cylinders. With all the injuries to the quarterback position, there is a chance that Minshew may be a player to stream for certain fantasy managers. But more than anything, he is a player that you can place into DFS lineups to help build the roster elsewhere.

Alexander Mattison - RB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

There were many detractors, me included, as to the potential for Alexander Mattison to take over as the lead running back for the Vikings in 2023. Through the season's first 11 weeks, you could say that he has been less than average in the value returned to fantasy managers who took the chance to draft him.

He is currently the RB33 with 10.0 FPPG and has been routinely pulled off the field for the likes of Cam Akers and Ty Chandler. It's clear that the team is frustrated with his inefficiencies and has looked for a spark to the running game elsewhere. Due to the lack of options, Mattison has held onto a sliver of hope in the backfield workload as he is the RB12 in snap share (63.9%).

But this has led to a player who is not even ranked inside the top 20 at the position in most analytical categories. Looking at just how inefficient he has been, Mattison ranks as an RB1 in both carries (148), targets (38), and red zone touches (28). This has translated to RB20 in rushing yards (542), RB23 in receiving yards (163), and RB25 in touchdowns (three). His abysmal fantasy points per opportunity (0.59 - RB61) are one of the many reasons that have left fantasy managers frustrated in 2023.

I say all of that to say this, Alexander Mattison has a great matchup ahead in Week 12. He will be facing a Bears defense that has been one of the worst in the league in points allowed to opposing running backs in 2023 (24.55 FPPG). Running backs have been able to find success both on the ground and through the air against this defense with nearly identical numbers allowed both rushing and receiving.

With Mattison's ability as a pass catcher, there is a good chance that he presents dual-threat capabilities in this game. In what could become a close divisional matchup, look for the Vikings to try and establish the run as this could be the final game that they are without Justin Jefferson. Look for Mattison to finally provide fantasy managers with the RB2 production that they have wanted all season long in Week 12.

Tutu Atwell - WR, Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

I am going to call this my dart throw of the week. While the Rams were without Cooper Kupp to begin the season, Atwell filled in rather nicely as a waiver wire find for fantasy managers. His three straight double-digit scoring weeks made him a viable WR2/WR3 for those lucky enough to roster him. But since Kupp's return, Atwell's relevancy has all but disappeared. Since Week 4, he has only one double-digit fantasy performance as his usage has nearly bottomed out.

On the season, his FPPG has dipped to 9.6 as his target share has been limited to 17.2%. He still holds a respectable snap share at 84.0% (WR29), but with only 22 targets over his last six games, he has been a hard player to roster, much less fit into a starting lineup.

Heading into Week 12, there is potentially a glimpse of hope for Atwell's fantasy potential. Cooper Kupp sustained an ankle injury in last week's game and there is a chance that he could be held out of the matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. A defense that has been slightly mediocre in points allowed to the position over the last four games (29.00 FPPG). On the year, the Cardinals' defense has surrendered an eye-popping 631.3 FP to opposing offenses, which bodes well for the Rams' ability to move the ball.

With Vegas currently viewing this matchup as nearly dead even, there is an inkling that this could become a sneaky shootout. With that being the case, look for the secondary to focus their attention on defending Puka Nacua and freeing up space for Atwell to operate in. If Kupp does indeed miss this game, fantasy managers should not hesitate to get Atwell into their starting lineups as a WR3.

Jonnu Smith - TE, Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Whether we like the antics of Arthur Smith or not, his offense has coincidentally provided fantasy managers with two potential options at the tight end position with Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith. On the season, Smith ranks as the TE15 with 8.7 FPPG. But if you dive deeper into the numbers, he has been a player that you can almost predict as he has largely performed well every other game.

Even though he is only the TE22 with 44 targets, he has been mostly efficient with his usage ranking inside the top-six in yards per route run (1.91), yards per target (9.6), and yards per reception (12.1). It's clear that the team will continue to utilize both tight ends in this offense and even though they limit each other's upside, both Smith and Pitts are viable plays at the position each week based on matchups.

Coming out of the bye week, the Falcons and Smith could not be facing a better matchup in a home game against the Saints. A defense that has been the worst in the league in points allowed to opposing tight ends over the last four weeks (24.27 FPPG). Looking at the pattern of Smith's hot-and-cold streaks of production, things are lining up perfectly for a TE1 finish in Week 12. I expect to see him find the end zone yet again and should be a player that fantasy managers consider starting if he is on the roster.

Week 12 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Russell Wilson - QB, Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns

In comparison to what he did in 2022, Russell Wilson has rebounded well in 2023 and has even been a player that fantasy managers could count on to some degree. Although he ranks as just the QB16 with 17 FPPG, there have been encouraging signs of good play that warrant starting consideration in positive matchups. The Broncos offense has mostly been ground-oriented (29th with 29.7 pass plays per game), but Wilson has been able to conjure up 19 passing touchdowns on the season (QB3) with the limited opportunities.

What has held him back is the lack of passing yardage to complement the scoring. His 2,065 yards rank as the QB21 and can largely be attributed to the amount of pressure he faces with 83 pressured throws on the season (QB4). Even though most fantasy managers still have a sour taste in their mouths from last season, it's clear that there has been improvement in the offense in the first year under Sean Payton.

Heading into Week 12, that improvement is facing a major roadblock as the Broncos will be matched up against arguably the best defense in the league, the Cleveland Browns. A defense that, on the season, has allowed just 11.24 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Also, a number that they have improved upon over the last four games (7.79 FPPG). Over that stretch, the Browns have given up just six passing touchdowns and limited opposing QBs to an average of 160 yards through the air.

In a game that currently has one of the lowest implied totals (36), the scoring opportunities will undoubtedly come at a premium. This fact alone should mark Wilson as a player to be firmly entrenched on fantasy benches in Week 12.

James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles

The much-hyped James Cook came out of the gates a little slow to begin the 2023 season. Much to the dismay of fantasy managers, after the Bills' first six games, Cook found the end zone just once as his opportunities inside the red zone were given to the likes of Latavius Murray and Damien Harris. Oddly enough, although he sits at RB22 in snap share (55.3%), he has translated that into 688 rushing yards (RB4).

Even with the rushing yards making him one of the leaders at the position, his lack of involvement in the passing game (32 targets - RB22) has capped his upside (12.4 FPPG - RB26). Many fantasy managers are hoping that Cook can keep up the positive momentum from Week 11 (after the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey) in which he totaled 102 yards and a score.

The positive momentum may be hard to keep going in Week 12 as Cook and the Bills will be on the road to face the Philadelphia Eagles. A defense that has been the toughest for opposing running backs to score against this year (14.32 FPPG). On the season, the Eagles are tied with the Buccaneers with the least amount of touchdowns allowed (two). With this contest being the highest implied total on the slate (48.5), the expectation is that there will be plenty of scoring opportunities to be had.

But with the Eagles' weakness being in the passing game, an area where Cook has not been very much involved, his potential could be limited in this game. Based on how this game could unfold, fantasy managers will have Cook in their starting lineups as an RB2, but don't be shocked to see him return the value of an RB3 level player in Week 12.

Amari Cooper - WR, Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

Much like the rest of the Cleveland Browns, Amari Cooper has had quite the tumultuous 2023 season. As he has had to deal with the subpar quarterback play, it has limited his upside and made him a gamble week in and week out for fantasy managers to deal with. Looking into his numbers, you see a somewhat productive player. He participates in 100% of the routes, is WR17 in targets (80), and WR5 in air yards (1,157).

But that has translated to just 13.2 FPPG and a ranking of WR27 as he is negatively producing against his expected FPPG (16.8). His QB rating per target (70.3) is one of the worst in the league, something that he has been able to overcome to a degree with his 0.37 fantasy points per route run (WR40). But with the Browns losing Deshaun Watson for the remainder of the year, Cooper's situation could become even more bleak.

The going will continue to be tough for Cooper and the Browns in Week 12 as they head to Denver to face the Broncos. A defense that has been one of the best in the league in points allowed to opposing wide receivers on the season (24.77 FPPG). With rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson making his third start of the season, there's not much hope for a quality performance from Cooper in this game.

Add in the fact that he will likely be shadowed by Patrick Surtain II and this has all the makings for a long afternoon for Cooper in Week 12. If there are better options on your bench, fantasy managers should lean towards benching Cooper in this game.

Cole Kmet - TE, Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Kmet has been the embodiment of a boom-or-bust player in fantasy football in 2023. In the weeks in which he finds the end zone (three games), he has found himself firmly inside the TE1 ranks for the week. But in other games without the score, he has largely been a player worth keeping on the bench. On the year, he ranks as the TE6 in both targets (61) and receptions (49), while his five touchdowns place him as the TE2.

All of this has helped contribute to his current ranking as the TE7 on the season (1.2 FPPG). At a position where it is typically a crapshoot to find a steady option for lineups outside of the elite players, Kmet should be viewed as one always worthy of starting potential most weeks.

Looking ahead to Week 12, Kmet could be in store for a disappointing performance as the Bears go on the road to face the Minnesota Vikings. A defense that has been very stingy against opposing tight ends over the last two games (5.40 FPPG). Even with Justin Fields back last week, it did not help Kmet's production as he finished the game with three catches for 20 yards.

I am expecting to see a similar performance for him in this game as he is yet again held out of the end zone. A player that is typically a fringe TE1 most weeks, Kmet should be viewed as a player to be left on the bench in Week 12 as there may be other options to pick up and stream for fantasy managers.

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