MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/24/2025)

July 24, 2025

Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/24/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jose Ramirez, Zach Neto, Randy Arozarena and Christian Walker.

It’s a small slate on Thursday, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some value on some home run props. I’m seeing some value in the early game before we focus on the AL West in the late slate. Note that all bets are dependent on the starting pitcher matchups listed. If teams happen to change these before first pitch, then be sure to put extra thought into it before placing your bets.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on a risky market like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, July 24, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/24/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, July 24:

• Jose Ramirez
• Zach Neto
• Randy Arozarena
• Christian Walker

Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting pitcher matchup: Charlie Morton

Ramirez is on a bit of a run right now and is showcasing his power. He gets a matchup on Thursday against Charlie Morton, who’s starting to regress a little bit after having a really strong couple of months in May and June.

José Ramírez clubs his 8th homer of July! pic.twitter.com/5LeYx1VFzh

— MLB (@MLB) July 22, 2025

Let’s start with the splits for Morton. He’s typically in his worst situation when facing lefties on the road, as they’re hitting him for a .403 wOBA on the year in this scenario. Morton also tends to give up more homers on the road, posting a 1.46 HR/9 compared to his 1.22 HR/9 at home.

More importantly, his HR/FB rate on the road jumps to 17.6%, a nice number to target for homers. That sits at 15.0% when facing lefties on the road. While righties might have more success in this scenario, none of the righties in the Guardians' lineup provides the type of power that Ramirez does.

As for Ramirez, his best homer-hitting scenario is at home against right-handed pitchers. He posts a 44.9% fly-ball rate in this scenario with a 20.8% HR/FB rate. That’s a fantastic number to target, especially with him being on the roll he’s currently on.

Morton is likely to stick to his Uncle Charlie nickname and attack Ramirez with mostly curveballs. He’s posting a .291 wOBA on the pitch, and lefties have only hit one homer off of it, making it a clear strength. Ramirez has hit curveballs pretty well this season, posting a .343 wOBA against curves. Most of the Guardians’ lefties don’t have great numbers against curveballs, so if someone’s going to hit a home run off it, then it’s going to be Ramirez.

But Morton can’t throw just curves to the 32-year-old. He’ll have to switch it up. The next most likely pitch Ramirez will see from Morton is a four-seamer, and this is what we’re banking on. Morton’s gotten crushed on this pitch, giving up five homers to lefties with a launch angle of 28 degrees. They’re getting it in the air, and it’s traveling.

Match that up with Ramirez, who’s got a .397 wOBA against four-seamers, clearly seeing it well and mashing it when he does. Coming into Wednesday’s action, Ramirez has put six four-seam fastballs in play since Saturday, and three of them have left the park.

Regarding the batter vs. pitcher data, Ramirez has faced Morton 18 times in his career. He’s 4-16 with two walks. He hasn’t hit a bomb off the 41-year-old, but the expected stats say his numbers should read a little better. The familiarity should help tie in a bit with Ramirez’s recent hot streak and make that curve a little less intimidating.

The game plan for Ramirez here is simple: Get enough under a curveball to drive it out or foul off enough curves to get a four-seamer over the plate. If that happens, then we’ll have a good shot at cashing this.

Zach Neto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting pitcher matchup: Logan Evans

Now for our AL West features, of which we’ve got a few. We’re going to support Zach Neto here in a matchup against the Mariners’ Logan Evans. I wouldn’t hate a bet on Jo Adell or Mike Trout, but I think there’s more value with Neto, so let’s break this down.

Zach Neto really is obsessed with leadoff homers pic.twitter.com/Mv2ZEPUsth

— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) July 12, 2025

It may be a bit counterintuitive to fade Evans in a home start given how dominant he’s been at home, but the stats say there’s a lot of luck associated with that. He’s posted a 2.60 ERA to go along with a 4.50 FIP and a 5.03 xFIP at T-Mobile Park. That screams negative regression loud and clear.

So let’s focus on why I like Neto in this spot. He’s hitting for a 132 wRC+ against righties on the road with a HR/FB rate of 16.2%. That nearly matches his 16.7% mark he posts at home, so a home/road split worry isn’t quite there for me.

Neto is also hitting righties much better this year overall. He only hits lefties for an 83 wRC+ while righties are at 132, as we mentioned above. We don’t have to worry about reverse splits here, and if the bullpen is called in early, traditional thoughts would say he’s going to face another right-hander anyways. So we’re in a decent spot.

Now for the pitch mix. When facing righties, Evans mostly features a cutter, sweeper, and sinker. Each pitch is expected to show negative regression, with the biggest being the sweeper. Neto has hit sweepers for a .383 wOBA this season, a very strong mark even though he’s expecting negative regression.

But he’s been strong against the other two main pitches, hitting for a .384 wOBA against cutters and a .400 wOBA against sinkers. He’s not expecting negative regression on either pitch, so he should get strong results against them if he puts them in play.

The important pitches for us to focus on here as potential home run pitches are the cutter and sweeper. Evans’ cutter has a 15-degree launch angle, and the sweeper has a 17-degree launch angle. I would assume that Evans tries to attack Neto more with the sweeper, but if Neto’s frustrating enough against that pitch, then Evans will pivot to either the cutter or sinker. If it’s the cutter, then there’s a real good chance Neto puts it in the seats.

Evans hasn’t faced the Angels yet in his rookie campaign, so we’ve got a bit of volatility here. Regardless of that, I’ll take my chances backing Neto as we bank on negative regression for Evans with a pitch mix that’s favorable to Neto.

Randy Arozarena OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting pitcher matchup: Yusei Kikuchi

We’re staying away from the chalk here (sorry, Cal Raleigh fans) and going with a pick that’s got some more value. Staying in Seattle, let’s back Randy Arozarena in a matchup against the Angels’ Yusei Kikuchi.

1. Randy Arozarena

Randy already has 18 HR, 16 SB, and 3.0 fWAR over 96 games this year. His best year was in 2021, when he had 3.9 fWAR in 141 games; he should shatter that.

His 141 wRC+, 52.0% hard-hit% (91st percentile), and 91.8 MPH AVG EV are all career highs. pic.twitter.com/VrdSnEh7lj

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) July 20, 2025

We’ll start with the familiarity angle. Arozarena and Kikuchi have faced off plenty in the past. Arozarena is 5-22 with two bombs against the southpaw. His average exit velocity is 94.5 MPH with a 22.2 launch angle. That gives us confidence that he’s hit the ball hard and in the air, even if the overall results haven’t been overwhelming against Kikuchi.

Arozarena has been very good in July, hitting eight of his 18 homers in the month. He’s been a better hitter at home and posts a 21.8% HR/FB rate at T-Mobile Park. That jumps to 23.5% when facing lefties at home. When tying that together with a 48.6% fly-ball rate in this scenario, it’s a great spot to have Arozarena in.

For Kikuchi, we’re getting him in his worst situation. He’s generally been worse against righties on the road, allowing a .351 wOBA. Of the 14 HR he’s given up on the season, 13 of them have been against righties, and none have been against lefties on the road. His HR/FB rate in this scenario is 14.6%, which is a little lower than we’d like, but it’s decent enough to target.

Kikuchi features four main pitches against righties: Four-seamer, slider, changeup, and curve. Hitters have done well against the top two pitches this season. He’s thrown four-seamers to them 35.1% of the time to go with a .353 wOBA and a .343 xwOBA. His slider has gotten hit even harder with a .386 wOBA and a .458 xwOBA.

The slider is going to be the key pitch in the matchup against Arozarena. The Mariners' slugger has only hit them for a .274 wOBA to go with a .276 xwOBA. It’s not great, but we’re also putting that up against a pitch with a .458 xwOBA. If we’re expecting the 30-year-old to have success against any slider, it may as well be this one.

If he can battle off enough of them, then he’s likely to face a four-seamer, which we want to see. He’s hitting them for a .358 wOBA to go with a .412 xwOBA. He’s posting a 67.6% hard hit rate against four-seamers as well, so if he gets one of Kikuchi’s in the zone, then we’ve got good chances.

Against righties, Kikuchi has given up five homers on four-seamers and six on sliders. These are the two pitches that Arozarena will have to capitalize on. With Kikuchi’s slider grading below average by Stuff+ (91), I’ll take my chances on Arozarena smashing out one of these two pitches on Thursday.

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Christian Walker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting pitcher matchup: Luis Severino

I’m bucking quite a few trends here for two main reasons.

The first: Though his season hasn't been the prettiest, Christian Walker is finally getting hot. Coming into Wednesday’s action, he was hitting for a 149 wRC+ in July. Finally, the version of Walker that the Astros envisioned when they signed him this offseason.

Christian Walker is back, he was signed for moments like these.

pic.twitter.com/F1qDNUmkC0

— Jeremy Branham (@JeremyBranham) July 20, 2025

The second: I straight up do not trust Luis Severino with anything this season. Yes, he’s been a better pitcher on the road. But, just like we mentioned with Evans before, a lot of that may simply be luck-related.

Severino has posted a 3.10 ERA on the road this season. But that comes with a 4.43 FIP and a 5.09 xFIP. That signals that he’s been very lucky, especially since xFIP factors in a league-average HR/FB rate. That tells us he should be allowing more homers than he has.

So let’s look at why Walker makes sense to target then. He’s had a bad season, but July has been the best version of him. He’s posting an 18.8% HR/FB rate, easily the highest of any month. Part of that is because he’s hitting fewer flyballs than normal, but this is something I can live with for now.

The pitch mix is the key here. Severino features three main pitches when he faces righties: sinkers, sweepers, and four-seamers. The four-seamer in particular is facing a ridiculous amount of negative regression. He’s gotten a .164 wOBA against it to go with a .305 xwOBA. Not a high number, but he’s been very lucky with the pitch.

For Walker, as bad as he’s been this season, he’s succeeded against all three. With him posting strong numbers against sinkers, I would believe that Severino chooses to focus more on sweepers and four-seamers.

This is important because sweepers (23 degrees) and four-seamers (18 degrees) have higher average launch angles against Severino than his sinker (11 degrees). There’s more of a likelihood that Walker can get under these pitches, even though he’s done very well against sinkers (.382 wOBA).

So if he’s able to make good contact against one of these three, then I like our chances of cashing this. The rest of Severino’s pitch mix may prove dangerous against Walker, as he hasn’t had good results against these three pitches (cutter, slider, changeup), but the mix on these is low enough that I don’t believe they’ll be as much of a focus as the other three.

For batter vs pitcher trends, I already said I’m buying more into the recent streaks rather than history for this. Walker is 0-7 in his career against Severino, but that was a much different version of Severino in years past.

Buy into the recent hot streak of Walker and buy into the negative regression coming for Severino.

Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market.

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