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Frank Ammirante's players to avoid in the first five rounds of 2026 fantasy football leagues. His early round fantasy draft avoids and busts, including Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane, and more.
The 2026 NFL season is fast approaching. Fantasy football draft prep is heating up, meaning it's time to dive into my league-losing picks for the upcoming year. Last season, I listed Nico Collins, Brock Bowers, Breece Hall, Jameson Williams, and Courtland Sutton as landmines to avoid. While not all of those players were "league-losing picks," a couple of them, like Bowers, were correct calls.
Let's try to build on last season's result with five more league-losing picks to avoid for the 2026 NFL season. Each of these players is being taken in the first five rounds in fantasy football drafts right now. I wanted to focus on expensive picks because they're more detrimental to your team if they end up being busts.
So, without further ado, find out why Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane, Rashee Rice, Malik Nabers, and DJ Moore are players to avoid.
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Christian McCaffrey - RB, San Francisco 49ers
Underdog ADP: 6.5 (RB3)
CMC turned in a phenomenal season last year, rushing for 1,202 yards and 10 touchdowns while hauling in 102 receptions for 924 yards and seven touchdowns. He ended up finishing as the overall RB1 in full-PPR formats, ahead of Bijan Robinson by 2.7 fantasy points per game.
It was yet another special season for one of the best running backs and most productive players we've ever seen in fantasy football. I know several fantasy football managers like to lean into uncertainty, stating that "they don't predict injuries," but this doesn't feel like the year where you should invest in McCaffrey.
Here's why: We're talking about a 30-year-old running back with a lengthy injury history, fresh off a season where he had 311 carries and 102 receptions. That's over 400 touches. Using a first-round pick on a player like that has a ton of upside, but there's a lot of downside that has to be acknowledged as well.
Can we really trust CMC to play 17 games in 2026? Here's the other thing: When McCaffrey misses time, it's usually an extended absence. He played four games in 2024, seven in 2021, and three in 2020. There's a legit chance that he can totally crush your season this year.
FIVE PLAYERS who are OFF my draft board:
This means that I won't take them at all.
Christian McCaffrey
De'Von Achane
Rashee Rice
Malik Nabers
DJ Moore— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 14, 2026
Additionally, one overlooked aspect of a CMC fade is that he's actually shown some serious decline as a runner. This is masked by his insane workload as a receiver out of the backfield, but it's there.
Last season, CMC averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, which was his lowest since 2020. Watching him play, you could see that he had a lack of burst compared to previous seasons. This makes sense, as he has a ton of mileage on him.
Going back to the "I don't predict injuries" adage. I disagree. This is one of the highest risks you can take in fantasy football this year. Let someone else get enticed by McCaffrey's upside. There's simply too much risk in this profile.
De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins
Underdog ADP: 17.5 (RB11)
Achane is an explosive back who can make a major impact in the passing game. But there have been so many changes in his team context, making him a clear fade in 2026.
For one, former head coach Mike McDaniel is now the Chargers' offensive coordinator. When Achane came into the league, people didn't think he'd have a massive workload, but McDaniel gave it to him. Can we trust the new coaching staff led by Jeff Hafley to do the same?
I want RB1 overall in the range of outcomes if I'm taking a running back in the first two rounds.
I don't see that for De'Von Achane.
Not with this dumpster fire of an offense.
For that reason:
Zero shares.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 9, 2026
You could say yes because Achane is that good. I wouldn't push back too much on that one, as I know he's an absolute stud. Which leads me to my next question: Do you want your second-round pick to be from one of the worst teams in the NFL?
Not only did the Dolphins lose McDaniel, but they also traded Jaylen Waddle. New quarterback Malik Willis has a bottom-tier receiving corps, with Jalen Tolbert and Malik Washington leading the way. Additionally, having a scrambling quarterback like Willis instead of a statuesque pocket passer like Tua Tagovailoa means that we're likely to see a downgrade in receiving volume.
To sum all that up: Achane is in a new scheme with an inferior supporting cast headed for less receiving volume. The Dolphins are likely to win no more than three or four games. They're going to be blown out at times, where Achane is scripted out of the game, as the team has no reason to risk injury. The opportunity cost of taking Achane in the second round is simply way too high, so I'm out on him.
Rashee Rice - WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Underdog ADP: 25.5 (WR11)
Rice caught 53 of 78 targets for 571 yards and five touchdowns in eight games last season. After an offseason where he had knee surgery (albeit no structural damage) and more off-field issues, I have no interest in taking Rice this year.
He served a 30-day jail sentence from May 19 to June 16 during the offseason. There are just too many distractions here. It wouldn't surprise me if Rice was falling out of favor with the Chiefs.
Then, you have to consider that Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL. It's likely that the Chiefs are going to be a bit more run-heavy this year. They signaled these intentions when they signed Kenneth Walker III. Now, they can use Walker to take some pressure off Mahomes as he gets more comfortable in his recovery. Less passing volume means fewer opportunities for Rice.
Andy Reid on if Rashee Rice will be ready for the start of training camp: "I think he will be. He gets out [of jail] next week. We'll see where it goes. He'll be back up here and working."
— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) June 11, 2026
On top of that, we have to acknowledge that Xavier Worthy played through a torn labrum last year. He had surgery on January 14 once the season was done to fix it. There's a good chance that this injury helps explain why Worthy was so ineffective last season. Now fully healthy, Worthy can make more of an impact in this offense compared to 2025. That could take away targets from Rice as well.
The bottom line is that Rice still comes at an expensive cost. I'd rather take someone like Chris Olave or DeVonta Smith at his ADP.
Malik Nabers - WR, New York Giants
Underdog ADP: 37.6 (WR18)
Nabers is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, but he's coming off a torn ACL and meniscus. He then underwent a procedure to clean up scar tissue that had been restricting his knee extension. There's a reasonable chance that Nabers will be ready for Week 1, but there's also a risk that he'll be placed on the PUP list to start the season. That would cause him to miss the first four games.
Given that the Giants are still a rebuilding team, it would make sense for them to take a cautious approach with their most talented player. Do you really want to take a player who will miss the first four games in the early fourth round of your fantasy football draft?
I get it, the upside is high. But even when Nabers returns, it's going to likely take a couple of games before he gets rolling. That means you could be missing six games of regular Nabers production instead of four.
On top of that, the Giants are going to be a run-heavy offense with HC John Harbaugh. They telegraphed these intentions when they brought in Greg Roman as "senior offensive assistant" to go along with Matt Nagy, who is the offensive coordinator. I'm not too excited about this staff. They don't scream "creative play-callers" if you ask me.
So, here we have a player coming off a serious injury, likely to miss some time, playing for a run-heavy offense. I can take Colston Loveland at this ADP. I'm out on Nabers.
DJ Moore - WR, Buffalo Bills
Underdog ADP: 56.3 (WR27)
I get it, you're excited about Moore with the Bills because he gets to play with Josh Allen. But here's the thing: This is a wideout entering his age-29 season, playing in a run-heavy offense that likes to spread the ball around. Remember when the Bills traded for Amari Cooper a couple of years ago? This feels like the same situation.
There is still Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid in this offense. Not to mention the fact that Moore has been more underwhelming than you think.
DJ Moore has finished as WR27 or worse in PPR PPG in 5 of the last 6 seasons.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 8, 2026
So, here we have a wideout with WR27 ADP, which is his best finish in five of his last six seasons. Do we really expect a resurgence at this late stage of his career? Moore clearly has declined. He was reduced to more of a gadget player in his final year with the Bears. Ben Johnson preferred to feature Rome Odunze.
If you faded potential bounce-back veteran wide receivers, your hit rate would be quite high. Just think back to when Allen Robinson II joined the Rams. This is what this Moore to Buffalo move feels like.
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