2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values - Hitters Who Had Career Years

November 24, 2024

Jamie's 2025 fantasy baseball draft sleepers for hitters who had their best seasons. He explains why they are good fantasy baseball draft targets and values.

There was no shortage of standout performers in 2024. A few rookies shone with the bat and on the mound, but that shouldn't have detracted from some of the more experienced players having career years.

Here, we pick out six hitters who had the best seasons of their careers in 2024. To qualify for the list, I have limited it to players who made their MLB debut before 2023 and had at least 150 games played in the Majors before this year.

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Anthony Santander - OF, Free Agent (formerly Baltimore Orioles)

2024 stats: 44 HR, 102 RBI, 99 R, 2 SB, .235 AVG

Anthony Santander entered 2024 as a cheap source of power. He had hit 111 homers in his previous 591 MLB games with 61 homers coming in the past two seasons (305 games). Santander topped 40 home runs for the first time at an ideal time as he enters free agency this offseason.

Only Aaron Judge (58) and Shohei Ohtani (54) hit more home runs than Santander in 2024. It's fair to say that Santander will be the number one target for suitors missing out on Juan Soto. The question is whether the team signing Santander gets the 2024 version or the pre-2024 version.

As much as I like Santander, it feels more likely that 2024 won't be repeated. It will depend on where he signs. But 40 home runs seems unlikely if we look at his expected stats. According to Statcast, Santander's expected home run total (xHR) was 36.6.

In 2022, Santander hit 33 homers and had 33.3 xHR. In 2023, Santander hit 29 homers and had 33.3 xHR. If we look at Santander's expected home runs by ballpark, where he calls home in 2025 will have a big impact on his fantasy value.

While they don't seem likely destinations for Santander, at Cincinnati's park, he had 48 xHR. At Kansas City's park, Santander had 29 xHR. He could of course stay in Baltimore and the news that they're changing the left field dimensions again would help Santander.

Orioles GM Mike Elias announced that they are changing the dimensions of the left field wall at Camden Yards.

Here is a rendering of the proposed changes ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/V30TN2e25m

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) November 15, 2024

Santander's landing spot will be a key factor in his projected RBI and run totals too. Even when the Orioles had an average team in 2022, Santander still had 89 RBI and 78 runs. So he should be able to put up solid numbers if he's not surrounded by the talent he was this year.

Santander outperformed his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) too. The .061 difference between Santander's .506 SLG and .445 xSLG was the 10th largest difference among 252 qualified hitters. All signs point towards Santander having a good 2025. But don't draft him expecting a full repeat of 2024.

Willy Adames - SS, Free Agent (formerly Milwaukee Brewers)

2024 stats: 32 HR, 112 RBI, 93 R, 21 SB, .251 AVG

Willy Adames is another free agent this offseason, coming off a career year. His 32 homers only topped his previous best by one (set in 2022). Adames comfortably beat his previous high in RBI (98) and runs (83), both set in 2022 also. It's no surprise his 161 games played in 2024 were also a career-high.

While Adames' .251 batting average was his best since 2021 (.262), the most eye-catching stat from this year was his 21 stolen bases. Having entered 2024 with 30 steals in 719 MLB games, no one expected Adames to steal 21. His 25 stolen base attempts easily topped his previous high of 11 in a year.

The most remarkable thing is that Adames achieved a career-high in stolen bases despite having his lowest sprint speed (27.4 ft/s) in a Major League season. It only ranked in the 50th percentile. It should act as a reminder that stealing bases is down to more than just speed.

While Adames' power is legitimate, how early he's drafted in 2025 will depend on where he signs this offseason. The Brewers' 259 stolen base attempts were the second most in the league. Only the Nationals (296) had more, so how often Adames gets a green light will be determined by his new team.

After never tallying double-digit steals before 2024, drafting Adames for 20+ stolen bases will leave you disappointed. It's safe to take Adames with an expectation of ~30 homers, ~85 RBI, and ~85 runs. But even in a 'run-friendly' environment, 10 steals from Adames in 2025 are more likely than 20.

Jarren Duran - OF, Boston Red Sox

2024 stats: 21 HR, 75 RBI, 111 R, 34 SB, .285 AVG

Jarren Duran was one of the few bright spots for Boston in 2024. He gave us a glimpse of his talent in 2023 when hitting .295/.346/.482 and stealing 24 bases in 102 games. But his power came to the fore in 2024 with 21 homers. Duran also had a league-leading 48 doubles and 14 triples.

Jarren Duran led MLB in doubles and tied for the lead in triples

It’s the 8th time a player led MLB in 2B & 3B for a season (incl ties for lead), joining:

1968 Lou Brock
1948 Stan Musial
1943 Stan Musial
1919 Bobby Veach
1917 Ty Cobb
1900 Honus Wagner
1876 Ross Barnes

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) September 29, 2024

As a prospect, Duran had demonstrated a power/speed combo. In 2021, he hit 16 homers and had 16 steals in 60 games (at Triple-A). That led to Duran getting his first taste of the Majors that year. As many debutants do, Duran struggled with a pair of home runs and steals in 33 games.

It was a similar story in 2022. Duran hit .283/.349/.491 with 10 homers and 18 steals in 68 Triple-A games. Once more, that didn't translate into Major League success right away. Duran had a .221/.283/.363 slash line, three homers, and seven stolen bases in 58 Major League games in 2022.

With a full-time role and more experience, Duran certainly appears to have blossomed into a quality Major League hitter. He did outperform his expected stats (.275 xBA and .453 xSLG) but Duran still ranked in the 87th percentile for expected batting average.

Duran's 96th-percentile sprint speed will lead to him hitting plenty of extra-base hits and tallying a lot of steals. Although Duran's 7.3% BB% isn't great (40th percentile), he did improve his plate discipline in 2024.

Duran lowered his Chase% to 28.1% and Swing% to 48.3%. He appeared to be more selective at the plate and it certainly worked. Only seven players scored more runs than Duran in 2024 and there's no reason to believe it won't be a similar story in 2025.

Duran will be drafted in the second or third round (depending on league size). He is set to be a contributor in all five of the main fantasy categories, justifying that draft pick. Now 28 years old and in his prime, there's nothing to suggest Duran can't have a similar or better season in 2025.

Brent Rooker - OF, Athletics

2024 stats: 39 HR, 112 RBI, 82 R, 11 SB, .293 AVG

There was little by way of positivity for the Athletics off the field this year. On the field, the fans had some reasons to cheer, but none more so than Brent Rooker. He ended the season tied for fifth in home runs and tied for fourth in RBI. That's despite the A's ranking 26th in runs scored (643).

Rooker hit 30 homers in 2023 so had flashed his power. But that came with a .246 batting average, only 69 RBI, and 61 runs. Given Rooker had 40 xHR, his 39 homers were no fluke. His quality of contact certainly backs that up as we can see from his Statcast Profile.

While Rooker's .266 xBA was in the 80th percentile, it was noticeably lower than his .293 average. Given Rooker had a .230 career batting average in the Majors (218 games), the increase in 2024 might not be sustainable. He did manage to lower his K% despite it still ranking in the 10th percentile.

Rooker seemed to change his approach in 2024 and be much more aggressive. He increased his Swing% to 50.2% with his first-pitch swing rate increasing from 35.2% to 44.8%. While Rooker's Chase% went up to 31.0%, his Contact% went up to 68.2% (from 64.9% in 2023).

It remains to be seen if Rooker can sustain his gains. A 28.8% K% and 34.1% Whiff% suggest we will see a drop in his batting average to nearer his xBA. His power is legitimate and Rooker will get to play away from Oakland next year. However, the move to Sacramento may not be of much benefit.

According to Statcast, the Oakland Coliseum was the second-worst ballpark for home runs. Sacramento's Sutter Health Park, where the A's will play for the next three years, has almost identical dimensions to the Oakland Coliseum. Don't go expecting 50 home runs from Rooker in 2025.

The double-digit steals might be repeatable, given Rooker's 27.6 ft/s sprint speed ranked in the 56th percentile. And Rooker's 9.6% BB% was similar to 2023 (9.3% BB%). Even with a more aggressive approach, Rooker walks enough to get chances to steal bases.

The only regression Rooker is almost certain to experience is in his batting average. More than 100 RBI will be difficult to achieve if the batting average does regress too. Even still, Rooker should be drafted as a top-power bat.

In some formats, Rooker will only be Designated Hitter (DH) or Utility (UT) eligible. That will hurt his fantasy value. But he can tally plenty of counting stats to make him a worthwhile pick. Especially as he is set to be available after the sixth round of most drafts.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 3B/OF, New York Yankees

2024 stats: 24 HR, 73 RBI, 74 R, 40 SB, .256 AVG

Jazz Chisholm was in the midst of a very good year before being traded to the Yankees. He then upped his hitting to another level in the Bronx and finished up having a huge year. For the first time in his career, Chisholm joined the 20/20 club. And then some!

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Chisholm did so while playing a career-high 147 games. Health has been an issue for Chisholm but outside of a minor elbow issue in August, he managed to stay injury-free.

If we compare Chisholm's numbers in Miami and New York last year, we can see how much his fantasy stock improved after the trade.

Chisholm was more patient in New York, despite the drop in his walk rate. His Swing% dropped by 1.2 percentage points even though he saw more strikes. Chisholm faced 47.9% of pitches in the strike zone as a Marlins. With the Yankees, 53.3% of pitches Chisholm faced were in the strike zone.

That can be attributed to his supporting cast. Chisholm was arguably the best hitter in the Marlins lineup. Despite a lot of reliance on Judge and Soto, the Yankees still had better hitters immediately before and after Chisholm regardless of where he hit in the lineup.

Chisholm is set to be an early third-round draft pick in 2024. He can definitely put up numbers to justify that. There's no reason to believe he can't have similar numbers in 2025. Chisholm's .256 batting average was only marginally better than his career .245 average coming into the season.

With an expected home run total of 28 at Yankee Stadium, Chisholm should benefit from the short left field wall. And he should be able to tally more RBI and runs over a full season in the Bronx. The Yankees only ranked 24th in steals (88) but that didn't impact Chisholm's 20 attempts in 46 games.

Last year was the first time since 2021 that Chisholm reached 100 games. Taking him as early as a top-30 pick might pay off. It is a big gamble on the health of someone who only managed to play 281 games across the previous three seasons. Chisholm would need to play 140+ games for the gamble to work out.

Jurickson Profar - OF, Free Agent (formerly San Diego Padres)

2024 stats: 24 HR, 85 RBI, 94 R, 10 SB, .280 AVG

Jurickson Profar positioned himself perfectly for free agency. He set career highs in homers, RBI, runs, and steals (tied), while also having the best slash line of his career. Like others on the list, his fantasy value will be determined partly by where he signs this offseason.

Profar has always shown elite plate discipline and this year was no exception. Profar's 11.4% BB% ranked in the 89th percentile while his 15.1% K% ranked in the 88th percentile. Profar's 0.752 BB/K was the seventh-best among 129 qualified hitters.

We saw back-to-back 20 home runs seasons from Profar in 2018 and 2019. He's also had 10 steals in a season twice (2018 and 2021). This was the first time he put everything together in a season. Especially with a .280 batting average which was way up from his .238 career average before 2024.

Everything Profar did was skills supported. His expected numbers were almost identical to his actual numbers. His 44.4% HardHit% ranked in the 71st percentile. Profar's 7.2% Barrel% only ranked in the 43rd percentile but was still a career-high.

The reality is that Profar's numbers were justified but still came out of nowhere. We've seen players have breakouts later in their careers. But banking on Profar to repeat his numbers in 2025 as a 32-year-old probably won't end well. That being said, he shouldn't be disregarded in drafts.

In leagues that value walks, OBP, or strikeouts, Profar has more value. Even in standard leagues, Profar's ability to get on base and hit for some power does make him a solid option in the later rounds. If he can carry forward his 2024 gains into next year, Profar could be a draft-day steal.

Profar played over 100 games hitting second or third in the Padres lineup. Whether he re-signs in San Diego and does that role again or hits in a prominent position for another team will determine his value. Much of Profar's value will be on his counting stats so where he ends up will be key.

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