RADIO
RotoBaller fantasy football writer Jason Katz makes his bold predictions for the 2018 NFL season.
In my group of friends, I am known for making outlandish claims that, most of the time, even I don't believe. It antagonizes the hell out of them because they know I'm just complaining about how LeSean McCoy is going to finish with zero touchdowns because I'm annoyed it's Week 3 and he hasn't scored one yet, even though I know my claim is absurd. It's kind of my gimmick.
It is only fitting that I convert my ridiculous claims into actual bold takes posted on the internet for the world to see. You will surely scoff at many of these now and start preparing for how you plan to lambaste me in December when none of them pan out. Except, I am planning the exact same thing for all of you when I bat 1.000.
If nothing else, bold predictions are fun. There's little downside because they're not supposed to be likely outcomes, but when you get one correct, the feeling is euphoric. I will preface my claims with this: I truly believe everything I say here. I will put my money where my mouth is, and, if you ask, I will gladly show you the proof in my drafts that I follow through on what I think.
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Jason Katz's Bold Predictions for 2018
Tyreek Hill will finish as a top eight wide receiver...again
Come on. You knew I had to open with a Tyreek Hill prediction. This may be the least bold of my takes given that he was the PPR WR6 by average points per game last season, but as your resident Tyreek Hill enthusiast, I must remind everyone doubting Hill that YOU ARE WRONG! I've heard it all. The unsustainable efficiency. The seven touchdowns from 30+ yards out. The fact that Alex Smith was the most efficient deep-ball passer in 2017. The addition of Sammy Watkins. The switch at QB. The switch at offensive coordinator. I don't care. We have never seen a player like Tyreek Hill before. Ever. All of these historical trends do not apply to him. I am normally not one to chase outliers, but I also do not deny reality when I see it. I believe in my evaluation. After 2018, no one will doubt Hill anymore.
Jay Ajayi finishes as an RB4
After telling you all how great a player is, I have no choice but to bring the morale down by telling you about a player who stinks. Jay Ajayi stinks. He's a replacement level back that did not perform any better on the Eagles than he did on the Dolphins. He is 100% dependent upon his offensive line. He'll get what is blocked...just like any other RB in the NFL not named Rob Kelley. Ajayi's success rate over average in Philly was nearly identical to what it was in Miami. The Eagles just have a better offensive line. And yes, he gets to run behind the line...some of the time. Ajayi will be in a three-way split with Darren Sproles and Corey Clement. Sproles and Clement will dominate passing down work while Clement will be the primary goal-line back. There's also the added caveat that an injury to any one of these players could open the door for Josh Adams to get on the field and he is the most talented RB on the team. If he gets a real chance, it could be game over for someone. I say someone, not everyone, because we know Doug Pederson likes to rotate his RBs. He's been immensely successful employing a committee and there just aren't any compelling reasons to suggest he will change that. Anyone expecting Ajayi to see workhorse volume is fooling himself. Ajayi is a laughably bad pick in the fourth round.
Alex Collins is not the Ravens starting running back by the end of the season
Alex Collins posted excellent efficiency numbers in 2017. He also is one of the least athletic players at the running back position. These two things should conflict with each other. The fact that they didn't in 2017 strikes me as an anomaly. Collins' ADP is creeping into the third round. He may start out hot, but eventually, his lack of acceleration and straight line speed will catch up to him. He's not fast. He's not agile. He has no burst. He's not strong. I have no idea who is taking his job, but I know I won't be owning Collins anywhere this season.
James White will lead all Patriots RBs in fantasy points
Brandin Cooks is gone. Jordan Matthews never got started. Julian Edelman is suspended for the first four games. Phillip Dorsett is bad at football. Cordarrelle Patterson is actually really good at football, but no one wants to give him the ball. Sony Michel is going to begin the season inactive due to a knee injury. Rex Burkhead has a "slight tear" in his knee, which is "minor," except I don't believe you Bill! Jeremy Hill and Mike Gillislee are terrible at football. All of that leads to James White having a far greater role than anyone expects. Last year, the best Patriots RB was the cheapest one: Dion Lewis. This year, the cheapest one is White (again, Gillislee and Hill don't count). White my legitimately act as a pseudo slot receiver while Edelman is out and has already proven to be an excellent pass catcher. If and when White excels, his role will remain constant throughout the season. Add in the fact that Michel is a walking injury and fumble risk (and also a rookie) and Burkhead can never stay on the field and there's a very realistic scenario where White is the most valuable RB on the team.
Jordy Nelson scores more fantasy points than Amari Cooper
Everyone loves Amari Cooper. I do believe the talent is there. I also know that in three seasons, Cooper has never finished higher than his ADP. I also know he is currently being drafted at what has been his career ceiling thus far. All we've heard from Jon Gruden is praise for Jordy Nelson and how he looks 28 and not 33. What have we heard about Cooper? Crickets. For all three years of his career, Cooper has had an older veteran alongside him. For all three years of his career, Cooper's ADP has been higher than said veteran. For all three years of his career, said veteran has scored more fantasy points than Cooper. Exit Michael Crabtree. Enter Jordy Nelson. Replace. Repeat.
Marquise Goodwin finishes as a top-15 wide receiver
In an admittedly very small sample size with Jimmy Garoppolo from Weeks 13-16, Marquise Goodwin was the WR9. All of the reports out of training camp and every indicator in the preseason suggests that Goodwin is Garoppolo's favorite target and clear WR1. Kyle Shanahan historically feeds his WR1. Goodwin is not Julio Jones, but he is the best receiver on the 49ers. Goodwin is better than people think at route running and catching short and intermediate balls; he's not just a burner. Goodwin's ADP was once outside the top 40, which was a joke. Things like that are why I sometimes wish my leagues drafted at the beginning of August (then about 15 players get hurt in Week 1 of the preseason and I remember why no one drafts at the beginning of August). Goodwin is going to lead the team in targets on an offense that should attempt about 600 passes. As Goodwin's ADP pushes towards the fifth round, he is still worth it.
