Now that we're past catcher, it is time to have some fun. In this article I rank the Top Five Keeper Values among First Basemen. These rankings are derived from my 15 step formula. The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, current stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a TRUE Keeper Value for each player.

Consider the derived Values the same as a discount sales sticker at the supermarket. Essentially, my keeper values are the amount of discount a fantasy owner is gaining or NOT gaining by keeping a specific player at a specific draft round. The values range from 0-100. The values can also be negative for players who will not give fantasy owners the same value in 2016 that they paid for in 2015. For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used.

Translation of Keeper Formula Values

less than 0 - Slap Yourself for Considering
0-25 - Gross, only if hes your favorite player
26-50 - If your options are limited
51-75 - Good Solid Keeper
76-99 - No Brainer. Keep
100 or more - The Fantasy gods have smiled upon you.

If you play in a custom league with any non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @JBsFantasyHelp or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.

2016 Top Five First Basemen Keeper Values

1. Paul Goldschmidt ARI, 28 (First Round) Keeper Formula Value: 79.04

2015 Stats: 103 R, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 21 SB. .321 BA,

In 2015, the top fantasy first baseman had himself another spectacular year. Among 1B, Goldschmidt ranked second in R, fourth in RBI, first in SB, and second in BA. He set career highs in R, SB, BA, OPS (1.005), WAR (8.8), and wRC+ (164).

Pitchers are tired of getting beat by this guy, as shown by his career high 17 BB% and 29 IBB in 2015. This trend will continue however, considering how Goldy finds a way to get even better when it matters most. Last season with RISP, his BA rose to .340, with a 1.149 OPS and .299 ISO. The pop he generates with his bat (40.9 Hard%) is simply amazing for a career .299 hitter.

Goldschmidt is the definition of elite. Even though he is already at the top of his position, he is still evolving his game offensively. He progressed against offspeed pitches, setting career best against changeups and curve balls. He pulls the ball at an absurdly low 29.6%, as you can see on the graph below, hitting the ball to every (literally, every) part of the field. Oh yeah, was it mentioned he stole 21 bases?

Source: FanGraphs

Even though first round draft picks do not historically score well in this formula, Goldy will give fantasy owners value no matter what the price. The only scenario that keeping him is not recommended is if a fantasy owner finished dead last in 2015 and is sitting with the 2016 first overall pick. In that case, obviously use the keeper selection elsewhere and draft Goldschmidt again at number one. If your league does not allow first rounders to be kept, I am very sorry. But if they are allowed, keep Goldy despite the cost, and enjoy the ride as he and the rest of the Diamondbacks offense continues to improve.

2. Joey Votto CIN, 32 (Sixth Round) Value: 66.99

2015 Stats: 95 R, 29 HR, 80 RBI, 11 SB, .314 BA

Fantasy baseball returned back to normalcy in 2015 with the resurgence of Votto. Among first basemen, he ranked fifth in R, and third in SB and BA. Votto-matic has always been an elite OBP guy. But this season he drew a career high, league-leading 143 BBs which helped lead to a beautiful 1.000 OPS.

Like Goldschmidt, Votto set a career high in WAR (7.6) too, which is even more impressive considering he won the MVP award in 2010. At the age of 32, coming off an injury plagued 2014, one would have expected Votto's numbers to drift off in the second half of 2015. But he proved to us that he is fully healthy and back among fantasy's elite 1B as he hit .362 with a .535 OBP and a 1.152 OPS in the second half.

He has been in the league for nine years and pitchers still do not have an answer for him. Out of his 19 HR off starting pitchers in 2015, six were hit in each the first, second, and third time through the batting order. Knowing Votto will not chase anything out of the zone, pitchers threw him a career high 61.9 FB% and a career low number of off speed pitches. He graciously accepted the high number of fastballs, hitting an excellent 25 LD% and an absurdly low 9.5 Soft%. To take in perspective of what pitchers have to deal with when facing Votto, look at his Contact% graph.

Source: FanGraphs.com

Owners who took the chance on a Votto bounce back in 2015 will be heavily rewarded in keeper leagues with his sixth round ADP. He won't be a top RBI producer like he was back in his MVP days, due to him wanting to remain with the rebuilding Reds and his likely place at the top of the batting order. But the R, HR, and fantastic BA will be there again in 2016.

3. Eric Hosmer KC, 26 (15th Round) Value: 62.39

2015 Stats: 98 R, 18 HR, 93 RBI, 7 SB, .297 BA

Like Votto, Hosmer also had a bounce back year after a disappointing 2014. He ranked fourth in R, and fifth in BA among fantasy first basemen. The 98 R and 93 RBI were both career highs. Hosmer also reached career marks in OPS (.822), WAR (3.6), and wRC+ (125). His 2015 stat line was good, but he was even better when it mattered most. In high leverage situations, Hosmer owned a 1.024 OPS and a blistering .310 ISO. In the ninth inning his BA was .383. Bottom line: Hosmer is clutch.

Hosmer is still young and progressing at the plate. He increased his BB% and decreased his K% from 2014. He struggles with offspeed pitches. But Hosmer is trending upwards, and bats cleanup for the best team in baseball. Most significantly, in keeper leagues, he carries a 15th round price tag into 2016. He won't post elite fantasy numbers, but he's a steal at that price. Hang onto and focus on scarcer positions early in the draft.

4. Anthony Rizzo CHC, 26 (Second Round) Value: 56.81

2015 Stats: 94 R, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 17 SB, .278 BA

In 2015, Anthony Rizzo built upon his breakout All-Star season in 2014. He set career highs in R, RBI, OBP (.387), and WAR (6.2). The crazy steal totals came out of nowhere (previous career high of six), and ranked second among fantasy first basemen. I guess anything is possible with Joe Maddon. The leading factor in Rizzo's fantastic season was his increased vision at the plate. His 83.1 Contact% and 7.7 SwStr% were both career bests. He just seemed to be seeing pitches better than he had in previous seasons - both fastballs and offspeed.

Rizzo is like Hosmer in many ways. Both are 26, still progressing offensively, and excel under pressure. In high leverage situations in 2015, Rizzo owned a .397 BA and a 1.151 OPS. Both bat cleanup for extremely talented offenses. The difference is Rizzo will give you top tier fantasy numbers, hence the second round cost in Keeper Leagues. The 56.81 Keeper Formula Value despite an early round cost shows that Rizzo is elite.

5. Chris Davis BAL, 29 (Seventh Round) Value: 49.99

2015 Stats: 100 R, 47 HR, 117 RBI, 2 SB, .262 BA

The curious case of Davis: after hitting 53 HR and finishing third in American League MVP votes in 2013, Davis cut his HR total in half and dropped below the Mendoza line in 2014. Enjoying the same trend as others in this article, Crush regained his 2013 form this season. He led the MLB in HR, ranked first among fantasy first basemen in RBI, and third in R. What the heck happened in 2014?

Interestingly, the answer could very well be Adderall. In 2013, Davis was granted a therapeutic exemption for the stimulant. In 2014, he did not request an exemption and was banned for 25 games and subsequently was forced to stop taking the pill. But in 2015, he was again granted the exemption. Could it be a coincidence? Take a look at the comparison of AVG/P in 2014 and 2015, and decide for yourself.

Source: FanGraphs.com

There was a ton of risk tied to drafting Chris Davis is 2015, but the owners who assumed that risk were certainly glad they did. He is currently a free agent, so R and RBI potentials for 2016 are hard to see. But two things are certain. He will strikeout a ton (league leading 208 K in 2015), and he will "Crush" the ball when he connects (41.4 Hard%).

The hands down favorite for the HR leader at the position, Davis has plenty of value in Keeper Leagues with his seventh round ADP. If the medicinal situation was in fact the issue in 2014, and is squared away for 2016, Davis could easily end up being even more valuable than his 49.99 score.

*Neither Kendrys Morales nor David Ortiz were included in these rankings due to each only playing nine games at First Base in 2015.

Top Five Catcher Keeper Values

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