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JB debuts his fantasy baseball Keeper Value Formula, His catcher dynasty / keeper rankings for 2016 fantasy baseball keeper and dynasty leagues.
What Have We Here?
It's good to have a methodology. Today, we'll discuss the top five catcher keepers using a keeper value tool I developed. Many keeper leagues have a cost to keeping players. I wanted to incorporate that opportunity cost into my formula.
These rankings are derived from my 15 step formula. The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, current stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a TRUE Keeper Value for each player.
Consider the derived Values the same as a discount sales sticker at the supermarket. Essentially, my keeper values are the amount of discount a fantasy owner is gaining or NOT gaining by keeping a specific player at a specific draft round. The values range from 0-100. The values can also be negative for players who will not give fantasy owners the same value in 2016 that they paid for in 2015. For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used.
Translation of Keeper Formula Values
less than 0 - Slap Yourself for Considering
0-25 - Gross, only if hes your favorite player
26-50 - If your options are limited
51-75 - Good Solid Keeper
76-99 - No Brainer. Keep
100 or more - The Fantasy gods have smiled upon you.
If you play in a custom league with any non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @JBsFantasyHelp or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.
*Neither Evan Gattis nor Carlos Santana were included in these rankings due to their combined ZERO games played at catcher in 2015.
Top Five Catcher Keeper Values for 2016
1. Kyle Schwarber CHC, 22 - Undrafted (Last Round) Keeper Formula Value: 97.85
After being called up in mid-June, Schwarber tore the cover off the ball. Playing in only 69 games, he finished with an impressive 52 R, 16 HR, 43 RBI, .246 BA, and even 3 SB to ice the cake. The 16 bombs ranked him seventh among 2016 eligible catchers. Prorated from a 162 game season, those 16 HR are equivalent to a jaw dropping 40 which hasn't been done by a catcher since Javy Lopez did it in 2003.
Schwarber isn't just all power. His 52 R also ranked seventh among eligible catchers. Runs can be fluky, but three stats show that it might not be for this youngster. With a .355 OBP, 13.2 BB%, and 4.24 Pit/PA, Schwarber showcased a veteran's plate discipline. The walk rate was nearly double the league average. Joe Maddon clearly saw the on base potential, and it led to Schwarber batting second in the lineup for 52 out of the 69 games.
With NL Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo batting behind you, you are going to score runs. The favorable batting position also led to good pitches to hit, as a quarter of his HR came on the first pitch of the at bat. Lastly, Schwarber also demonstrated the ability to hit the ball to all parts of the field, as less than one-third of his HR were pulled to RF. Check out the long ball spread courtesy of FanGraphs.com.
Schwarber will be one of the top Keeper Values for 2016, and plays at an offensively-weak position. Regardless of how your Keeper league handles undrafted players, if you own Kyle Schwarber...KEEP HIM.
2. Stephen Vogt OAK, 31 - Undrafted (Last Round) Value: 47.13
With the departure of Derek Norris last offseason, Vogt got the opportunity to be the main man behind the plate for the Athletics in 2015. He did not disappoint. His 18 HR ranked him sixth among 2016 eligible catchers, and his 71 RBI put him at fourth. Vogt has good patience at the plate, sporting a .341 OBP/ 11.0 BB%, and his .261 BA definitely didn't hurt you.
The power numbers will remain in 2016, as his 12.5 HR/FB% is quite sustainable. He spent the majority of the season hitting fifth in the batting order, which should continue this year. This means Vogt will be another good source of RBI, a rarity at the position.
The drastic value drop off from #1 to #2 shows how valuable Schwarber is, and how shady the catcher position is in keeper leagues. Vogt is a player whose keeper selection will depend greatly on the rules set in your league. If the league rewards fantasy owners for successful waiver wire acquisitions and counts undrafted players as a last round pick or even a late (17+) round pick, keep Vogt. (Just be aware, 17th round ADP would drop his value to 24.)
3. Russell Martin TOR, 32 - (16th Round) Value: 38.96
In his first season with the Blue Jays, Martin seemed to enjoy the new scenery. He boasted a line of 76 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 4 SB, and a .240 BA. He ranked first among 2016 position eligible catchers in runs scored. The career high HR mark ranked second, and the 77 RBI ranked third.
What fantasy owners have come to respect most about Martin though, is his durability. He has caught over 100 games for five years in a row. Since 2006, the only season he did not reach the century mark was in 2010, when he caught 93. Playing for the most potent offense in baseball, Martin will repeat his high output of runs and RBI again in 2016, no matter where he is batting in the lineup.
A 16th round pick is definitely worth the R, HR, and RBI Martin will provide batting in the Blue Jays lineup. He is not getting any better, but he is still plenty good enough to provide value over others at the catcher position and draft position.
4. Brian McCann NYY, 31 - (12th Round) Value: 29.27
In a continued resurgence, Brian McCann had an excellent 2015 campaign for the Yankees. He tied his career highs in R and RBI with 68 and 94, respectively. He set a new career high with 26 HR, which ranked first among 2016 position eligible catchers. The 68 R ranked third, while the 94 RBI ranked second. McCann hits LHP well, and it really is an underrated facet of his game. He gets to play the majority of his games at Yankee Stadium, which is always great news for the lefties, and he bats in the middle of what turned out to be a great lineup. The power is legit, the 14.9 HR/FB% is easily sustainable for McCann. His line in 2016 will look very similar to this seasons, which is great news for his fantasy owners.
A 12th round draft pick is a decent deal for the position's number one power threat. He will be a top two HR leader for catchers in 2016, and will beat out Buster Posey for the lead in RBI. Unless you are allowed a very limited number of keepers, Brian McCann is worth keeping around for another season at this price.
5. Travis d'Arnaud NYM, 26 - (17th Round) Value: 8.60
Travis d'Arnaud started the 2015 season right where he left off in 2014. He looked to be on his way to earning the breakout candidate title that had been placed on him by so many experts during preseason.
Before April could end, the injury bug bit. He suffered a fractured pinkie on a HBP. It was a long two month recovery, but he finally returned. Then that daggum bug bit again. This time a sprained elbow sustained on a home plate collision kept him out one more month.
For the season, d'Arnaud was limited to 67 games. But in those 67 games, he was impressive. He hit 31 R, 12 HR, 45 RBI, and sported a cool .268 BA. He has great patience, which translated to a .340 OBP. He has hit over 20 HR only once in his career, at Double-A. But if he remains healthy, 2016 will be his second. He will be a decent source of RBI batting in the middle of the Mets lineup, and he will own a top five BA at the catcher position.
The injuries in 2015 caused a bit of a deflation in d'Arnaud's value in the formula. But despite the 8.60 valuation, he will be a hot commodity at the catcher position in 2016. Drafted in the 17th round last season, he makes for a solid choice in Keeper leagues.
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