RADIO
Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 15 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
With the All-Star break less than a week away, we're hitting an important part of the schedule. MLB teams will be tinkering with their rosters at the deadline, and fantasy managers will be tinkering with their rosters in anticipation of the playoffs. You'll want to be ahead of the curve by finding as many diamonds in the rough as possible to help you out come August and September.
So let's bring you another edition of our Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs for Week 15 of the fantasy baseball season. We'll come in and help you identify who's a breakout that's going to help you in your hunt for the playoffs. The advanced stats tell all, and we'll use them to the best of our abilities. Shoutout to Thunder Dan for covering for me and doing a great job in last week's edition. Now let's get to this week's hitters.
This week, we'll evaluate a quartet of hitters - Cole Carrigg, Garrett Mitchell, Trevor Larnach and Jake Mangum. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Monday, July 6th.
Featured Promo: Save 50% the regular price with discount code SUMMER, for a limited time. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, DFS cheat sheets, Lineup Optimizers, betting/prop picks, and exclusive content from Nick Mariano and Eric Cross! GAIN ACCESS NOW
Cole Carrigg, OF, Colorado Rockies
2026 Stats: .939 OPS, 143 OPS+, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 18 R, 2 SB, 18% Rostered (Yahoo!)
Sometimes it can be tough to accurately evaluate Rockies players when they're hitting well because Coors Field can be such a boon for production. That may matter to some, but for fantasy managers it doesn't matter where the production's happening.
Enter Cole Carrigg: A Rockies rookie that's been absolutely lighting it up since being called up in June. He's hitting the ball well while maintaining a solid walk rate and strikeout rate, helping the Rockies hit surprisingly well over the past month. He's looking like a fun breakout, but we've got to make sure this isn't a fake out. So let's dive in.
Cole Carrigg has HIT THE MITT!@uchealth is donating $5,000 to @AthleticBeyond! pic.twitter.com/3j2UoowKB3
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) July 5, 2026
Carrigg's plate approach has been very solid at the Major League level. He's posting a 12.0% walk rate and a 20.7% strikeout rate. That walk rate is the highest he's posted at any level throughout the Rockies' system and 1.5% higher than what he posted in Triple-A Albuquerque this year. That lends credence to the idea of a solid eye for the zone.
His batted ball profile looks pretty decent as well. He's coming in with a 37.9% ground-ball rate, 41.4% fly-ball rate, and a 20.7% line drive rate. Keeping the ball off the ground is always a great thing, and that 37.9% rate is a great number to post. He was around 41% and 42% in his last two seasons in the minors, so seeing an improvement in the majors is just an extra boost.
He's also posting a 16.7% HR/FB rate. That's the highest rate he's posted at any level. There are probably some concerns here given that it's benefiting from a small sample size, as well as most teams not having a book on him quite yet, but it's impressive to see still. I'd expect it to drop back closer to the 13% rate he generally sits at once all is said and done.
In his 92 PAs, he's posted a .321 BABIP, which generally is close to what he's produced throughout the minor leagues. At some levels he was able to generate a .380 BABIP or higher, but that's simply way too high for me to feel comfortable with projecting. Given his .308 BABIP at Double-A Hartford last year, and his .323 BABIP at multiple levels in 2024, I think sticking with a number closer to .320 is accurate for him.
So we're not seeing much that's indicating him being the beneficiary of luck. But let's check in on his Baseball Savant page. His .394 wOBA is paired with a .341 xwOBA. So it's obviously projecting some negative regression here, but that's not always surprising to see for Rockies players.
Seven players on Colorado's roster, who have put at least 50 balls in play, have a 20-point gap or higher between their wOBA and xwOBA. Carrigg's 53-point gap is the third highest on the team, sandwiching him between TJ Rumfield and Jake McCarthy. But at the same time, his .341 xwOBA ranks third on the Rockies.
Something has to be driving that gap, though, and given the fact we're not seeing many concerns through either his batted ball profile or BABIP, it's probably a result of quality of contact.
He's clocking in with a 31.3% hard-hit rate and an 8.2% barrel rate. The hard-hit rate would put him in the 14th percentile, similar to former Rockie Nolan Arenado. The barrel rate would be in the 50th percentile, similar to the Padres' Gavin Sheets.
So when he gets it in the air, there's a decent chance he's going to barrel it, but the hard-hit rate is clearly holding him back. That got up to 38.8% in Triple-A Albuquerque prior to his call-up, so maybe there's a bit more in the tank here.
This is fun.
Cole Carrigg rips his second triple of the night to drive in two more. #Rockies up to 14 runs and 17 hits with one out in the fifth.
Colorado leads the MLB in OPS since June 1st. @blakestbanter pic.twitter.com/ajsTwPDizu
— Eli Whitney (@eliwhtney17) July 4, 2026
With xwOBA predicting negative regression, it's not a surprise to see that many of the pitches he faces are also expected to show negative regression. But he still has his strengths.
One of those strengths is changeups. He's hit them for a .523 wOBA to go along with a .470 xwOBA. That's over the course of 14 PAs, so small sample size beware here, but it looks like an obvious strength of his.
The pitch he looks like he's getting the luckiest on is curveballs. He's hit them for a .320 wOBA to go along with a .194 xwOBA. He sees them 13.5% of the time, so it's not the most common pitch he sees, but he's going to see some numbers drop from their current levels.
Most of the other pitches he sees have floors above .300 except for four-seam fastballs. He has a .291 xwOBA against that pitch. If he can raise that floor, it may do wonders for his chances of staving off negative regression.
Verdict: As a Rockies fan, I have to do my best to stay neutral and follow the numbers here. We're clearly seeing a gap based on the idea that he's not hitting the ball hard enough. What happens next will determine who he is as a major league hitter: He'll either start hitting the ball harder or the league is going to adjust to him.
But in the Rockies' system, he is going to continue to get opportunities. That is, of course, as long as Colorado's new front office acts like a normal MLB team's front office and sells at the deadline. We're crossing our fingers here in Denver that it actually happens. But the signs are there, and that should mean more opportunities for Carrigg.
Consider the rookie a cautious buy. Even if you don't buy into the raw stats, his park-adjusted stats look very impressive. Carrigg's a solid option to capitalize on in the near future. If he started hitting the ball harder in the latter months, then he's going to be a great find for fantasy managers.
Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2026 Stats: .817 OPS, 123 OPS+, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 37 R, 6 SB, 15% Rostered (Yahoo!)
Part of the reason that the Brewers have been so successful is that they are able to find diamonds in the rough. That sounds a lot like what we're doing here, doesn't it? Mitchell certainly falls under that category as a hitter not many know about, but one that's been very productive.
In June, he hit for an already impressive .852 OPS, but over the last two weeks that's jumped up to a 1.189 OPS. He's available in a ton of Yahoo! leagues and looks like the perfect candidate to ride the hot streak with. But from a full-season perspective, the question remains: Is he a breakout or a fake out? Let's dive in.
This guy is on a TEAR https://t.co/iMW1uOE8Eo pic.twitter.com/eExbipfT8Z
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) July 4, 2026
By looking at his plate approach, you can tell that Mitchell works the count and isn't afraid to take risks. That's evidenced by a 12.1% walk rate to go along with a 33.6% strikeout rate. Generally with a strikeout rate that high, I'd love to see a few more homers than the eight he's posted up so far. But the walk rate is more important here, and that ranks in the 81st percentile.
His batted ball profile does start to raise some questions, though. That's because his 53.7% ground-ball rate is the second highest of his career. That's bundled with a 28.9% fly-ball rate and a 17.4% line drive rate. At the same time, he posted a career-high 55.8% ground-ball rate in 2024 that equated to a 124 OPS+. This could just be the formula for Mitchell, but count me as someone who's a bit worried still.
As we look at his BABIP, I start to have more worries. That's because he's clocking in with a .397 BABIP. He's been above .350 twice in his career, so a higher BABIP would make sense, but it does give me pause to see it so high as an indicator of negative regression.
But onto Baseball Savant to get a fuller picture. That shows his results may actually be pretty true, posting a .357 wOBA to go with a .358 xwOBA that ranks in the 83rd percentile.
That's driven by a 52.0% hard-hit rate and a 16.0% barrel rate. Those rank in the 94th and 95th percentiles, respectively, and clearly are driving up that xwOBA. When he gets it in the air, he does some real damage; he just hits it into the ground way too often.
Garrett goes allllll the way oppo https://t.co/BhocsiIyI5 pic.twitter.com/z6Y9BwGInx
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) July 2, 2026
As we look at the pitch mix that pitchers attack him with, we can see he's got quite a few strengths with some solid floors. Four-seamers, sinkers, and sliders are all pitches that he has a .338 xwOBA of or higher. That's pretty solid for the top three pitches he faces that make up 59.9% of what he sees.
Pitchers may start pivoting to changeups and sweepers against him. Both are expecting negative regression, and both have attractive floors for pitchers (.291 xwOBA for changeups, .242 xwOBA for sweepers).
Mitchell should stay extremely productive against cutters, though. He's hitting them for a .569 wOBA to go along with a .482 xwOBA. The expected negative regression is irrelevant here. That's a great floor to have for the lefty.
Verdict: I want to be so worried about the ground-ball rate being as high as it is. That generally doesn't translate into success. But somehow Mitchell is finding his way around it. The hard-hit rate is driving his success and it's hard to ignore that.
Mitchell is a buy, especially at just 15% rostered. If he figures out a way to get that ball in the air more then he can really take advantage of his 95th barrel rate. But even if he doesn't, you still have an above-average hitter that's a productive member of a productive lineup. Snag him up while you can and ride the hot streak.
Trevor Larnach, OF, Minnesota Twins
2026 Stats: .833 OPS, 133 OPS+, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 41 R, 2 SB, 9% Rostered (Yahoo!)
As the Twins continue their rise into the AL Wild Card race, they've been powered by more than just Byron Buxton. A couple of weeks ago we highlighted Brooks Lee, and now we have our sights set on Larnach. The 29-year-old has never been a big power hitter, but he's found ways to be incredibly productive over the past month.
He's hit for a 1.008 OPS over the last 28 days. A big jump in batting average is to thank for that, as the Twins' left fielder is having his best season ever. But we still have to ask: Is this a breakout or a fake out?
Trevor Larnach slugs a leadoff homer 💥 pic.twitter.com/LFl0Wn5GZN
— MLB (@MLB) June 17, 2026
In looking at his plate approach, there are two things I'm loving right off the bat. He's posting a 12.2% walk rate, up from last season's 9.3% number. His strikeout rate is also down, coming in at 17.4% after last season's 21.5%.
I'm certainly most impressed with the strikeout rate here. At the beginning of his career, he was a high strikeout guy, posting a 34% rate in 2024. To see that cut in half now shows a ton of progression in his game.
His batted ball profile is showing positive progression from last year as well. He's got a 37.1% ground-ball rate to go along with a 43.0% fly-ball rate. These are essentially flip-flopped from last year's results. Any time you're hitting more balls in the air is usually a good thing (unless you're Garrett Mitchell, apparently).
With his line drive rate coming in at 19.9%, nearly identical to last year's 19.6% number, we can say there's a definite improvement in the batted ball profile here. The only knock is his 7.5% HR/FB rate, which is down from last year's 12.0% mark. I'd love to see that increase to his norms, but for now it seems he's prioritized contact more this season.
As we look at his BABIP, he's coming in with a .344 mark. After three straight seasons posting a number that's right around the .300 mark we generally look for, this is the first sign of potential negative regression. He did post numbers well above .300 in his first two seasons, but he does feel like the type of batter that should be closer to the .300 mark we aim for.
Heading over to his Baseball Savant page, we can see that they're indeed predicting negative regression. His .368 wOBA is paired with a .341 xwOBA. That xwOBA still ranks in the 66th percentile. So it's not bad, it just feels like he's overachieving a little bit.
Part of what's influencing that negative regression is his 34.2% hard-hit rate (20th percentile) and his 7.5% barrel rate (44th percentile). His hard-hit rate is down quite a bit from last year's 45.7% rate, and he's generally been right around that 45% number.
The good news is that during Larnach's hot streak, we've seen that hard-hit rate rise. Over the last 30 days, it's been at a 42.6% rate. If he keeps that up, then he will help stave off some of that negative regression that xwOBA is predicting. Since 45% has been his norm, I have a bit more faith that he'll be able to stay above 40% going forward.
Ok Trev ‼️ pic.twitter.com/pK1ynP0CQP
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) July 4, 2026
In looking at the pitch mix that pitchers attack him with, it's clear that he loves four-seamers. He's hitting them for a .410 wOBA to go along with a .390 xwOBA. This is very clearly a strength for him, and pitchers may be smart to stay away from throwing them to him as often as they do.
But part of that equation is that Larnach has some major struggles against changeups. He hits them for a .195 wOBA to go along with a .212 xwOBA. Since four-seamers and changeups play off of each other, we can expect the pitch mix there to stay about the same.
Outside of that, Larnach has some pretty solid floors against most pitches but does have some negative regression coming on two pitches. That would be curves (.402 wOBA, .294 xwOBA) and sweepers (.333 wOBA, .275 xwOBA). The good news is these two pitches only amount to about 17% of the pitch mix he sees, but it's clear that pitchers with decent breaking balls should focus on them more against the 29-year-old.
Verdict: In looking at how Larnach's season has progressed, I think that there are a lot of positives that I gravitate to. The increased walk rate, combined with the decreased strikeout rate, stick out a ton to me. And while the hard-hit rate is a bit concerning from a full-season perspective, the numbers we're seeing over his hot streak are much more in line with what we're used to.
Larnach is a buy. Sure, the BABIP is a bit high for my liking, but as that levels out we should see the hard-hit rate increase. With both of those fighting against each other, production should likely stay close to where it's at now. And with him on just 9% of rosters, he's a very low-risk add. Get him now and reap the benefits of his hot streak.
Jake Mangum, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
2026 Stats: .720 OPS, 99 OPS+, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 29 R, 17 SB, 6% Rostered (Yahoo!)
Similar to the Twins having some unsung heroes in their lineup, the Pirates fit that bill as well. Players like Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds will steal the headlines, but guys like Mangum can fly under the radar. From a speed standpoint, he's one of Pittsburgh's best threats.
Over the last week, he's started to hit more effectively as well, posting a .923 OPS over the last seven days. So is there something here with Mangum? Let's find out if he's a breakout or a fake out.
Jake Mangum hits his first home run as a member of the @Pirates! pic.twitter.com/gwy6AsdtOw
— MLB (@MLB) May 30, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, Mangum prioritizes balls in play. He's rolling with a 5.7% walk rate to go along with a 17.8% strikeout rate. That's great from a strikeout perspective, but I'd love to see that walk rate increase. He is looking better than last year's 4.4% rate he had with the Rays, but right around 5% is where he's generally been in the minor leagues.
As we move onto his batted ball profile, we can start to see that Mitchell's 53.7% ground-ball rate may not be all that bad. That's because Mangum's clocking in with a 61.6% ground-ball rate this season. That's actually strikingly close to his 61.2% rate he posted with Tampa Bay last year. It's simply way too high for me to feel comfortable with when thinking about future production.
The line drive rate clocks in at 16.5% and the fly-ball rate is at 22.0%. Mangum very simply needs to find a way to keep the ball off the ground. But even throughout the minors, he has generally been close to 50% with his ground-ball rate. While 60% is a very high number, this is simply who he is.
Looking at his BABIP, he's posting a .375 rate so far this season. After last year's .345 BABIP we should expect a number above .300 as the standard, but .375 feels pretty high. Maybe we're looking at his speed being a huge factor here, but I'm not feeling comfortable about what we've seen so far.
As we head over to Baseball Savant we can see a whole lot of blue. Well, maybe not much of it since the bars aren't exactly extended, but it's not a pretty picture. His .322 wOBA is paired with a .281 xwOBA. That xwOBA ranks in the 10th percentile.
While the ground-ball rate is a major factor in the xwOBA ranking low, the hard-hit rate and barrel rate aren't helping either. His 26.2% hard-hit rate ranks in the 4th percentile while his 1.2% barrel rate ranks in the 3rd percentile. His hot streak over the past week shows a 30% hard-hit rate with a similar batted ball profile, so maybe it's a bit of luck here.
As we look at the pitch mix he faces, we can see quite a bit of negative regression coming for him on most pitches. So far he's been very successful against four-seamers, hitting them for a .438 wOBA. That's paired with a .338 xwOBA, though. The good news is that's still a pretty decent floor to have, so it could be worse.
The next five pitches he sees, though, all have an xwOBA that's .288 or worse. Those are almost all paired with a wOBA that's .300 or worse, making for a pretty unfavorable combo.
Verdict: Given all of the data out there, it's really hard to buy into Mangum having much success in the future. His best ability is his speed, and that's really useful, but it's only useful if you can continually get on base. With his ground-ball rate as high as it is, I just can't get behind him having much success in the future.
At 6% rostered in Yahoo! leagues it's hard to consider Mangum a true sell, rather I think he's better under the "avoid" category. His value is very specifically related to his ability to steal bases. But if the stats say he's not going to be getting on base as often then his value should reflect that. You're going to find better options on the waiver wire if you're in need of an under-the-radar outfielder and some other solid options are already in this article.
More Fantasy Baseball Advice
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
