MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/12/2026)

April 12, 2026

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/12/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Matt Wallner, Carter Jensen, and more!

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! It has been a solid week for home runs, so I think we cap it off with an all-day slate of Sunday Baseball. There are some great matchups involving the weather and some questionable pitching. Hope everyone has a great Sunday, and let's cash some dingers!

We have four home runs on deck for you all today. We'll list the best odds available at the time of publishing, but always make sure to shop around, as odds change throughout the day. With us still in the early days of the season, also remember to keep that bet size smaller as we let more trends develop. Now let's get to it.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Make sure to check the RotoBallers Discord, as a lot of the writers will post their bets daily, which could make for some extra dough. Make sure not to miss it!

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/12/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, April 12.

Matt Wallner OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+375, Fanatics)

For my first stop, we are gonna go to Toronto, where Max Scherzer is pitching for the Blue Jays. Last season, Scherzer was a great spot for targeting lefties for home runs. He gave up a 2.45 HR/9 last season. This year, it has been a bit of a different story as the righties have been mashing him, but I think it's only a matter of time before the lefties start getting to him.

Who better from the Twins than the righty masher in Matt Wallner? Wallner is already off to a hot start with two home runs against righties and is hitting a .481 SLG, .259 ISO, with an 18.2 Barrel% and 63.6% HardHit%! Both he and Josh Bell have done well against righties this season, but I'm going with Wallner due to his recent success against them.

The last two ABs against Scherzer have resulted in home runs, both with exit velos of over 105 mph! His last 12 ABs, he is averaging over a 94 mph exit velo against righties. Wallner thrives off hitting the four-seamers. Seven of his 13 home runs came off the four-seamer, and he has hit Scherzer's other pitches pretty well outside the curveball.

💥 THIS WAS CRUSHED TO OUTER SPACE! 💥

Matt Wallner demolishes the ball 409 feet!

This is light-tower power and then some!#MNTwins | #MLB pic.twitter.com/WBdzt1g2mP

— Talkin' Twins (@TalkinTwins) April 5, 2026

I'm not usually someone who looks a lot into BvP, but I think all of that combined with how Scherzer and Wallner have done this season. It just adds to the fact that this is a great spot for Wallner to get his fourth home run of the season.

Carter Jensen OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500, Bet365)

Carter Jensen is quietly breaking out this season. He has shown himself to be a great success behind the plate. It doesn't get much better than learning from one of the great catchers in Salvador Perez. Jensen is off to a hot start with four home runs already off right-handed pitchers. Jensen finds himself in a good spot against Jonathan Cannon, who had a bit of an issue giving up the long ball.

Cannon doesn't have any crazy one-sided splits, but he did give up 19 home runs last season with an overall ISO of .216, a 14.3% Barrel%, and a 44.2% HardHit%. Lefties hit him slightly harder with a .533 SLG, but as I mentioned, both sides of the plate have hit him well.

The big thing was finding who is hitting righties the best right now, and it has been clearly Jensen. In 29 ABs, Jensen has put up team-leading stats in SLG at .655, .448 ISO, a 23.5% Barrel%, and a 58.8% HardHit%. With four homers already on the year, I wouldn't be surprised if he were hitting his fifth homer already. Jensen even looked good in limited time last year against righties.

Tha Carter IV

Carter Jensen connects for his 4th homer of the season! pic.twitter.com/4uHXcP7nX2

— MLB (@MLB) April 11, 2026

We are seeing winds of 15+ mph blowing out to center field, which gives us even more of a boost here. Across the last 10 games, he is second on the team in average exit velo against righties, but he is also sporting a 33% FB% as well. Jensen is locked into a great spot here against Cannon.

Garrett Mitchell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+490, DraftKings)

It didn't work out well for me last week when I attacked Zack Littell. I have a good feeling about this one, though. Littell was a guy we would all target last season. The dude gave up 36 home runs last year! He allowed 20 to righties and the other 16 to lefties. In his season debut, he gave up a home run to both sides of the plate. So far, he has kept his Barrel% low, but I'm expecting some regression to happen here.

Garrett Mitchell has been firing on all cylinders recently. He has been hitting the ball extremely hard with an average exit velocity of 99 mph across the last 13 ABs against RHP. Six of those had an exit velo of 106 mph or better. So far this season, he has an absurd HardHit% of 69.2% and a Barrel% of 30.8%. He only has one home run on the season, but it is just a matter of time before he gets more of them out of the park.

It's going to be warm in Milwaukee, which should allow the balls to fly a bit better. If we get the Littell of old, this is going to make for a killer spot for hitting home runs.

Wilyer Abreu OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+580, Fanatics)

The wind is blowing hard in St. Louis, and it's going to be a balmy 80 degrees. We are getting some prime home run hitting conditions, and on top of it, we get Andre Pallante on deck! Pallante has been respectable this season, not giving up a home run so far, but the lefties have been hitting the ball decently well against him. So far this season, they have a 10% Barrel% and 55% HardHit%.

It's early on in the season, but that hasn't stopped Wilyer Abreu from having a fantastic start. He is already pushing 20 hits on the season, 15 of which have come against righties, and three of those for home runs. He has an absurd .700 SLG, .325 ISO, 22.6% Barrel%, and a 58.1% HardHit%. All of which leads the team. This Red Sox team has been a bit lackluster to start the season, but Abreu has been a massive bright spot.

Abreu has 10 hits over 100 mph on the season already, and a near 95 mph average on the season so far. The hard hits are there, and it has resulted in three homers. If the launch angle can just increase a little bit, Abreu could be on a nice pace for homers this season.

Pallante is primarily a four-seam pitcher, and last season, seven of his ten home runs came off the four-seamer. Lucky for us, Abreu hit eight of his 10 home runs last season off the four-seamer. The pitch mix is great for Abreu, as he has been seeing all of Pallante's pitches extremely well. All it's going to take is Abreu getting a four-seamer over the plate, and this one could be gone.

As I said with Littell earlier, I'm expecting Pallante to regress, as he has been solid to start the season. I think this is going to be a massive spot for home runs; the weather is in prime conditions for it.

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