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Rob's tight end fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 14 of the 2025 season. Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 14 lineups?
Week 14 is the final week of the fantasy football regular season. For many teams, the outcome of this week will determine if they make the playoffs or potentially receive a first-round bye. The results of this week are significant. The margin for error is minimal. In some cases, after this week, records will be tied, and playoff seeding will be determined based on total points scored.
In light of how much is riding on this week, we'll be hyper-focused on identifying the best matchups and streamers to determine the winner. We'll also point out which tight ends have the most challenging matchups and may need to be avoided.
This article will also be posted to Reddit. If you have a question about a particular tight end or would like me to review one, please feel free to stop by and let me know. Please be sure to use the promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount on any of our premium subscriptions.
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Trending Up
Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins
Waller is trending up by virtue of being healthy. Waller played in just three games from Weeks 4-6 and had a route share of 61.2%. He was still working his way back from a long absence. His route share was just 53.7% in Weeks 4-5 before increasing to 75% in Week 6, his final appearance before landing on IR. He averaged 4.5 targets per game and had a 14.8% target share. During this three-game stretch, he averaged 16.3 half-PPR PPG.
This significantly exceeded his expected half-PPR PPG of 9.0. However, it's important to remember that his route share was still increasing. Waller greatly overperformed his opportunity, but given his little volume during that time, fantasy managers could easily expect the volume and opportunity increase to outweigh the guaranteed decrease in efficiency.
Darren Waller Holds Streamer Appeal Heading into Week 14 https://t.co/zc624Qivfb
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 2, 2025
In Week 6, Waller's route share was 65.5%, a promising sign for his future fantasy value. This was closer to his 75.0% route share in Week 6 than the 53.7% route share he had in Weeks 4-5. With Tyreek Hill on IR and only Jaylen Waddle being a dependable option in the passing game, Waller could pay immediate dividends. His fantasy football playoff schedule is also arguably the most favorable.
Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
From Weeks 1-4, Strange had a 66.4% route share before he was injured in Week 5, subsequently landing him on IR. During the first four weeks of the season, he had a 16.0% target share and averaged 5.8 targets per game. During this span, Strange only averaged 6.9 half-PPR PPG.
Since returning in Week 12, Strange has a 70.1% route share, slightly up from where it had been the first four weeks of the season. While his target per game average is somewhat lower (4.5), his target share remains unchanged, sitting at 15.8%. Over the past two weeks, since being activated off IR, Strange has averaged 11.9 half-PPR PPG. In Week 12, he set a season-high with 93 yards, and in Week 13, he found the end zone for the first time all year.
Brenton Strange Re-Establishing Himself as a Reliable Target-Earner in Jacksonville https://t.co/2cGrANAA1X
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 2, 2025
With Travis Hunter on IR and Brian Thomas Jr. largely uninvolved in the offense, Strange has taken on a bigger role in the offense. While the team did trade for Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington is dealing with a hip injury, which could result in an even larger role.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Schultz has been a different player ever since the team's Week 5 bye, and fantasy managers have benefited from it. In Weeks 1-5, he averaged just 5.2 targets per game, and his target share was 17.6%. His route share stood at 66.1%. While these numbers aren't bad, they're also nothing to get excited about regarding fantasy football.
Not surprisingly, then, Schultz averaged just 5.8 half-PPR PPG during this span. Then, the Texans had their bye in Week 6, and much changed.
His route share increased to 74.9%, solidly above the 66.1% it was before. His target per game average benefited from this uptick in opportunity, rising to 7.4 targets per game.
His target share has been at 18.6% since the bye, and Schultz has performed as a top-12 tight end during this time. His half-PPR PPG is at 8.8, but his expected half-PPR PPG is even higher, sitting at 11.8. His 8.8 half-PPR PPG average since Week 7 would rank as the TE12 for the season.
Even more impressive, his expected half-PPR PPG of 11.8 would rank fourth among tight ends for the whole season, slotting in ahead of Tyler Warren and Travis Kelce. Since the bye, Schultz has five games with eight or more targets out of seven contests.
Trending Down
Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers
Gadsden first broke out in Week 6, when he went on a tear, scoring 8.3, 25.9, 16.2, and 9.3 in four consecutive weeks. During this four-game stretch, Gadsden had a 7.9% route share, resulting in a 17.7% target share and 6.5 targets per game. He averaged 15.2 half-PPR PPG with a 12.3 expected half-PPR PPG average. Gadsden's role, volume, and production resembled those of a top-5 tight end and a potential league-winner.
Unfortunately, it wasn't meant to be. He suffered an injury in Week 10, and while that didn't cause him to miss any games, Gadsden hasn't been the same since.
From Weeks 10-13, Gadsden's route share has fallen significantly, down to 61.0%. He has only averaged 4.3 targets per game. Given these significant decreases, it's no surprise that his fantasy football production has been negatively affected.
Oronde Gadsden Cooling Off Fast, and Philly Could Make It Worse https://t.co/klyPuIcTRC
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 2, 2025
While his expected half-PPR PPG average of 8.6 isn't terrible, it's a far cry from his earlier numbers. However, Gadsden has been even more ineffective, averaging just 3.7 half-PPR PPG. While the injury could very well explain this, the reality is that Gadsden has not been the same.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
In the first seven weeks of the season, Warren had a 79.5% route share, a 20.3% target share, and a 6.3 target per game average. He was incredibly effective as well. He averaged 2.36 yards per route run and was performing as a top-5 tight end in the NFL. However, since Week 8, Warren has hit a rookie wall.
While his route share has remained steady at 79.1% since Week 8, Warren's efficiency has plummeted. He's still averaging 6.0 targets per game. Both of these numbers are incredibly similar to what he posted early in the season. However, his yards per route run have plummeted to 1.62, significantly below the 2.36 he averaged before.
He averaged 8.6 half-PPR PPG in Weeks 8-13, which keeps him as a solid weekly starter. However, his half-PPR PPG was 12.1 in the first seven weeks of the season. Warren has gone from a set-it-and-forget-it top-5 tight end to someone who is barely performing as a top-12 TE over the last six weeks. His talent profile requires him to stay in starting lineups, but his upside appears to be limited as of late.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
In Weeks 1-8, Goedert had a 79.3% route share, compared to the 83.2% he had since the team's Week 9 bye. His targets per game have decreased over the team's last four games, from 5.4 to 4.3. However, the fantasy production for Goedert during these two periods couldn't be much more different.
In Weeks 1-8, Goedert averaged 12.3 half-PPR PPG. This was primarily due to the number of touchdowns he scored. He played in seven games, but scored seven times. Since the Week 9 bye, Goedert's target per game average has decreased, and he has failed to find the end zone.
His target per game average has dipped, and his half-PPR PPG has drastically fallen from 12.3 in Weeks 1-8 all the way down to 4.1 half-PPR PPG from Weeks 10-13. Goedert cannot be seen as anything more than a touchdown-dependent, high-end TE2.
Worst Matchups and Tight Ends to Avoid this Week
- Harold Fannin Jr. vs. Tennessee Titans
- Oronde Gadsden II vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Dallas Goedert at Los Angeles Chargers
Best Matchups and Tight Ends to Target this Week
- Brenton Strange vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Mark Andrews vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Dalton Kincaid vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 14 Rankings
1. Trey McBride vs. Rams
2. Brock Bowers vs. Broncos
3. Travis Kelce vs. Texans
4. Tyler Warren at Jaguars
5. Dalton Kincaid vs. Bengals
6. Jake Ferguson at Lions
7. Brenton Strange vs. Colts
8. Kyle Pitts Sr. vs. Seahawks
9. Mark Andrews vs. Steelers
10. Dalton Schultz at Chiefs
11. Darren Waller at Jets
12. Juwan Johnson at Buccaneers
13. Zach Ertz at Vikings
14. Harold Fannin Jr. vs. Titans
15. Dallas Goedert at Chargers
16. Colston Loveland at Packers
17. Oronde Gadsden II vs. Eagles
18. T.J. Hockenson vs. Commanders
19. AJ Barner at Falcons
20. Isaiah Likely vs. Steelers
21. Evan Engram at Raiders
22. Cade Otton vs. Saints
23. Colby Parkinson at Cardinals
24. Mason Taylor vs. Dolphins
25. Gunnar Helm at Browns
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