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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 5 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I knew I had a bad feeling about last week. It was warranted. I only got three picks right. Two of them were the 10-point and the one-point. My 19 points were my worst ever in a Pick' Em week. This week HAS to be better! All of the ground I gained last week was given back. We had one entry (gunreich) that hit 50 points this week. That was the highest total in the group so far this season. The Fuzzy Dog had 49 points, and chrismiller19 had 48. Three more entries hit 45 points, and we had seven more hit 40. That shook up the standings a little bit!
Pick-and-Morty extended the lead in the pool to seven points. This entry leads the way with 158 points. chrismiller19 checks into second place with 151 points. JBTiger83 is in third place with 148 points. Riley is one point behind. BamaBoy rounds out the top 5 with 146 points. The gap between fifth and 10th place is only five points, and we have 14 more entries within 10 points. We've got a close group this year!
One big week can still move up the list quickly. At first glance, I like this week a lot better than last week. We're still in search of our first perfect week in the RotoBaller Reader's Group. Will it happen this week?
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. This week is for redemption!
(1) Alabama over Georgia
Alabama is 9-1 vs Georgia over their last 10 matchups. pic.twitter.com/IEdFWw0flB
— Cover Crimson (@CoverCrimson) September 22, 2025
The only time that Georgia has beaten Alabama since 2008 was in the 2021 National Championship Game. That includes four SEC Championship wins for Alabama in that time frame. It also includes two wins in Athens.
I do think that Georgia looks like the better team, but the Bulldogs aren't going to be able to score on Alabama's defense as well as they did against Tennessee. The public is very heavy (84%) on the Bulldogs. FPI tells a different story. Alabama has a 45.2% chance of an upset. That's enough for me to try and steal a point with this one.
(2) Notre Dame over Arkansas
Arkansas always has one or two home games per year where it wins a game it shouldn't. Notre Dame's defense gave up 30 points to Purdue last week. Arkansas will not have a problem scoring here, but neither will the Irish. The Notre Dame run game is going to be a problem for the Hogs, but this game could turn out to be a close one.
If Arkansas turns in a game like it is capable of playing, this is a winnable game. I'll keep the point value lower on this one because I don't fully trust the Notre Dame defense.
(3) Rutgers over Minnesota
Losing to Iowa is one thing. Losing to a Cal team that got shut out by San Diego State the next week is another. I'll take the team (Rutgers) that beat Ohio. That same Ohio team beat West Virginia, and that West Virginia team beat Pitt.
(4) Oregon over Penn State
Who’s ready for Saturday night? ⚪️ pic.twitter.com/kWDUUCJp5t
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) September 22, 2025
The Whiteout at night hits different. So does James Franklin's record against top 10 teams.
1. Penn State is 4-20 against top 10 opponents under Franklin.
2. Penn State hasn't beaten a Power 4 top 10 opponent in 995 days.
3. Penn State hasn't beaten a Big Ten team ranked in the top 10 in 2,131 days.
4. Penn State plays No. 6 Oregon on Saturday.
— RJ Young (@RJ_Young) September 22, 2025
Until this trend changes, I'm going to keep riding Penn State opponents. Drew Allar hasn't done much this year, but he hasn't been asked to, either. Penn State isn't just going to be able to run Oregon into the ground. I still expect a very close game.
(5) Louisville over Pittsburgh
I can't really trust Pitt. Tye Edwards carved them up in the Backyard Brawl. Isaac Brown is a better back and will do the same. Miller Moss hasn't had to carry the team, but it doesn't look like the Pitt defense can make him do it either. Louisville has had better line play on both sides of the ball and has more accomplished skill players on offense this year. It's a tough road game, but Louisville should pull it out.
(6) USC over Illinois
USC DE Anthony Lucas is having a breakout season with 16 QB pressures (3rd in B1G) and a 19.2% Win Rate (9th in B1G) 🔥
Next test is an Illinois team that gave up 15 QB pressures last week vs Indiana, including 9 by the C, RG & RT 👀✌🏻#FightOn✌🏻 pic.twitter.com/RSY3KBQDGM
— Arrogant Nation✌🏻 (@FightOnRusty) September 22, 2025
That highlights the issue with Illinois. That line got abused by Indiana last week. USC will try to do the same. I do have a few reservations about the physical Illinois defense against the Trojans, but not enough to sway me to the Illinois side. The Trojans survived the Spartans, who are in the same vein on defense.
These two teams haven't met since the 2008 Rose Bowl. The Trojans piled up 633 yards of offense in that game. This offense is explosive enough to duplicate that feat.
(7) Mississippi over LSU
The public is heavy enough on the LSU brand (59%) for me to try to steal some major points here. FPI has this heavily slanted to Ole Miss (73.3%) at home. Trinidad Chambliss changed this team. The line opened a couple of weeks ago with LSU favored. It opened this week with Ole Miss favored and keeps trending that way.
Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin's daughter just posted a picture of her sitting on the lap of LSU star Whit Weeks.
Guess who plays this week? 🤯#GoTigahs pic.twitter.com/dkKrINrWQz
— Cfbnewstoday (@cfbnewstoday) September 22, 2025
Then, we get this little tidbit. This is either expert-level trolling by Whit Weeks or Lane Kiffin's daughter, but it just might work. Ole Miss leads the country in explosive plays of more than 20 yards. They're going to log a few more on this defense, especially after this news.
(8) Kansas State over Central Florida
UCF being a massive fan favorite (80%) feels like an overreaction. Kansas State has had a week to prepare for this, and Dylan Edwards is expected to be at full strength for the first time since the beginning of the season.
FPI gives the advantage to K-State at 56.7%. Vegas takes it a bit farther with K-State -225 on the moneyline and a 6.5-point favorite. Everyone says Kansas State except for the people playing Pick'em. I'm siding with Vegas and the metrics.
(9) BYU over Colorado
BYU QB Bear Bachmeier through 3 games:
• 42/63 (66.7%)
• 518 passing yards
• 4 passing touchdowns
• 65 rushing yards
• 4 rushing touchdowns
• 0 turnoversNot bad for a true freshman 👀 pic.twitter.com/Q5ynnPBQAX
— Ensign Gridiron (@EnsignGridiron) September 21, 2025
The consensus in Provo is that Bear Bachmeier is an upgrade over Jake Retzlaff. It's hard not to agree. If BYU needs to score in a hurry or go deep downfield, it could be an adventure. If the Cougars can continue to dominate the short and mid-range passing game, along with having a QB that could run through a brick wall without breaking stride, they are a Big 12 sleeper.
(10) Kansas over Cincinnati
The Jayhawks get a gift to open conference play, first with West Virginia, then Cincinnati. The Jayhawks answered the bell last week on whether they had moved on after blowing the Border War. This offense still looks polished, and Cincinnati's offense isn't strong enough to get me worried about the Kansas defense.
