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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 2 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Texas.
Week 2 College Football Playoff Projections
The marquee matchup of Week 1 between Ohio State and Texas might not have lived up to expectations after a sloppy game that featured just 21 total points, but the result of that one had a major impact on the playoff projections, as Texas now looks to have dropped out of one of the top four seeds.
Elsewhere, Boise State’s loss to South Florida has made the battle for the Group of Five spot wide open. Who will take advantage of that? Let’s take a look at the projected playoff field heading into Week 2.
12. Tulane
Last Week: Not Ranked
Goodbye, Boise State. I spent all offseason being fairly certain that the Broncos could withstand losing Ashton Jeanty because of how good quarterback Maddux Madsen is, but instead, the team was dominated by South Florida, losing 34-7.
You could put the Bulls in this No. 12 seed spot and you’d be completely in the right, but I simply think Tulane is the better team after picking off Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone four times in a 23-3 win last week.
11. Notre Dame
Last Week: Seventh
Notre Dame opened its season with a surprising loss to Miami, but I pretty firmly believe that game said more about Miami than it said about the Irish.
We won’t find out for another week if that’s a fair conclusion to draw or not, as Notre Dame is off this week. The Irish host No. 19 Texas A&M in Week 3 in what’s likely a must-win game for this team if it wants to remain a playoff contender. Lose that one, and getting back into the playoff picture becomes a very uphill battle.
10. Iowa State
Last Week: Ninth
While Arizona State is the highest-ranked team from the Big 12 in the AP poll, I still think Iowa State is better positioned right now for a playoff spot.
The Sun Devils just didn’t look as dominant as you’d like to see against FCS program Northern Arizona, winning 38-19 on Saturday. Iowa State, meanwhile, has a huge win over Kansas State on its resume and just dominated one of the best FCS teams, defeating South Dakota in Week 1 by 55-7 score.
9. South Carolina
Last Week: 11th
The Gamecocks avoid a letdown in Week 1 by defeating Virginia Tech 24-11. Could it have been a more impressive season debut for South Carolina? Sure!
But the important thing was that quarterback LaNorris Sellers took care of business for the Gamecocks, throwing and running for touchdowns in the victory and boosting his Heisman case. This team likely floats around this seeding range for the next month, as it doesn’t play a ranked team until LSU on Oct. 11.
8. Clemson
Last Week: Fifth
Clemson only lost to LSU by one score, but quarterback Cade Klubnik just didn’t look nearly as good as he was expected to look, and the Tigers (LSU version) just completely stopped the Tigers (Clemson version) rushing attack, with Clemson’s leading rusher going for 16 yards.
The run game has to pick up some of the slack for Klubnik if this team has any chance to make real noise in 2025. Clemson is on the ropes right now, but there’s still plenty of time left to turn it around.
7. Miami
Last Week: Not Ranked
The biggest riser this week is Miami, which jumps from outside of my original projections all the way up to No. 7 after defeating Notre Dame to open the season.
Maybe that feels reactionary, but the only major question I had about Miami was if Carson Beck could replace Cameron Ward. One week in, and it looks like he mostly can, as he threw for 205 yards and two scores in an upset win over the Fighting Irish.
6. Oregon
Last Week: 10th
Oregon moves up this much because Clemson, Notre Dame, and Alabama all lost, and the Ducks jumped Iowa State because, well…I just can’t see the committee seeding the Cyclones this high.
The biggest question for Oregon has been about the change at quarterback, with Dante Moore taking over. Facing one of the best FCS programs, Montana State, Moore was 18-for-23 for 213 yards and three touchdowns. Maybe he’s not Bo Nix or Dillon Gabriel, but this quarterback-friendly offensive system looks to be doing wonders for him so far. Can he maintain that this week against Oklahoma State?
5. Texas
Last Week: Second
Texas lost to the best team in the country, so I didn’t want to punish them too much. However, the Longhorns are on major fraud watch right now.
Arch Manning struggled against the Buckeyes, going 17-for-30 for 170 yards with a touchdown and an interception as Texas lost 14-7 to Ohio State. It was a very disappointing effort from the Horns, but Manning will have three straight games against Group of Five teams now to help get Manning back on track before an Oct. 4 meeting with Florida.
4. Georgia
Last Week: Sixth
Georgia did what it had to do in Week 1, which was dominate Marshall. Gunner Stockton led the team in rushing yards and accounted for four total touchdowns in the win, showcasing that he’s probably ready to be the full-time quarterback for the Bulldogs.
Georgia will be a top-four seed again next week after it dominates Austin Peay, but then we’ll get two real tests in a row as the team is on the road against Tennessee on Sept. 13 before then playing Alabama at home in its next game.
3. Penn State
Last Week: Fourth
This is another one that’s kind of boring to write about — just like Georgia — because Penn State did exactly what it was expected to do in Week 1, which was dominate against inferior competition.
The Nittany Lions beat Nevada 46-11. Up next are games against FIU and Villanova before the team finally plays a big-time opponent on Sept. 27 as it hosts Oregon.
2. LSU
Last Week: Third
Garrett Nussmeier wasn’t quite as good as expected in Week 1, but he still led LSU to a big win over Clemson. This defense is for real as it held the Clemson run game in check, with Adam Randall’s 16 rushing yards leading the team.
LSU looks like the class of the SEC right now and doesn’t play Texas or Georgia in the regular season, so the chance that the Tigers end the year as a top-four seed is pretty high.
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
The defending national champions held Texas to seven points in Week 1, but it wasn’t all great.
The Buckeyes only scored 14 points of their own in the win, and Julian Sayin was relatively quiet in his first start, while Jeremiah Smith didn’t look like the guy who took the nation by storm a year ago. The good news? Only three more ranked teams are left on the team’s schedule, and none of those are until Oct. 11. Assuming Sayin and Smith figure out their connection by then, Ohio State should be fine until November, when they host Penn State in Columbus. That game could decide the No. 1 seed.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas
- No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Oregon
- No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Miami
- No. 9 South Carolina at No. 8 Clemson
