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Brandon's fantasy football ADP duel and pick recommendations for wide receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Nico Collins. His analysis to determine who to draft in 2025.
Every year, during fantasy football drafts, many managers find themselves at a point where they believe that every pick can define their season. Mastering Average Draft Position (ADP) is a skill that separates the contenders from the also-rans. When it comes to wide receivers, the challenge intensifies, as two similarly ranked players are often clustered together on the draft board, their close ADPs reflecting a razor-thin edge in value. This article, ADP Duel, delves into the strategic art of navigating these tight matchups, providing a roadmap to evaluate the subtle differences between receivers vying for the same slot. By honing your ability to interpret ADP trends, you can outsmart the crowd and craft a roster poised for success from the first round onward.
Wide receivers are the lifeblood of modern fantasy lineups, and deciding between two nearly identical options is a pivotal moment in any draft. Factors such as target share, quarterback play, injury risk, and matchup history can sway the choice when comparing receivers with comparable ADPs. In this piece, I’ll break down these elements with real-world examples, like pitting Brian Thomas Jr. against Nico Collins, to illustrate how nuanced differences can lead to significant fantasy outcomes. Whether it’s a duel between a volume monster and a touchdown-dependent star or two breakout candidates, understanding the context behind their ADP positions you to make informed, confident picks that pay off over a 17-game season.
My ADP Duel will equip you with the tools to conquer these wide receiver conundrums, turning indecision into decisive action. We’ll analyze specific player comparisons, leveraging ADP data, expert projections, and statistical insights to guide your strategy. By the end of this article, you’ll have a clear approach for tackling those tense moments when two receivers are on the clock, ensuring you draft with precision rather than panic. Get ready to sharpen your skills and transform ADP duels into draft-day victories for your fantasy campaign in 2025.
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Brian Thomas Jr. - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: WR7, 11th Overall
Thomas of the Jacksonville Jaguars is a fantasy football rocket ship at his current ADP, landing around the end of the first round (WR7-WR8 range) in 2025 drafts, and he’s ready to blast off like a caffeinated cheetah with a grudge. After a rookie season in 2024 that saw him haul in 87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns—outpacing every other rookie wideout—he proved he’s not just a pretty face with a 4.33 40-yard dash time.
His late-season surge with Mac Jones under center, averaging 21.5 PPR points over his final seven games (third among WRs), included a jaw-dropping 10.6 targets per game, turning him into a target vacuum that left defenders eating dust.
With new head coach Liam Coen’s slot-friendly scheme—where Cooper Kupp once averaged 22.4 PPR points per game—Thomas, who dominated from the slot with a 2.6 yards per route run against zone coverage, is poised to feast.
At 22, he’s younger than a fine wine and already facing a target funnel with Travis Hunter as a decoy, making his ADP feel like snagging a gourmet steak at a drive-thru price.
Sure, some might clutch their pearls over Trevor Lawrence’s mid-tier play or the possibility of touchdown regression after his 10-TD rookie haul, but dismissing Thomas is like skipping dessert because you’re “full”—ridiculous!
His 23.6% target share in 2024 ranked top-20 among wideouts, and with Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis out of the picture, he’s the undisputed alpha, likely seeing 23-26% of the targets in a revamped Jaguars offense.
Compare him to Collins, who’s battling Jayden Higgins for targets, or A.J. Brown, who’s nursing an injury history—Thomas’s youth and role stability give him an edge, especially with juicy matchups against the Texans and Titans, where he’s already torched secondaries for 86-yard days.
His 2024 playoff run (84.6 PPR points over Weeks 15-17) shows he can carry your squad like a superhero cape, and at this ADP, drafting him is like betting on a rookie who’s already bench-pressing the league—laugh all the way to the championship with this speedy stud!
Nico Collins - WR, Houston Texans
ADP: WR8, 14th Overall
Collins of the Houston Texans is a fantasy football gem at his current ADP, currently being selected around the first and second round turn (WR7-WR8 range) in 2025 drafts, offering a blend of elite production and untapped upside that’s like finding a gold nugget in a pile of stale nachos.
In 2024, despite missing five games due to a hamstring injury, he still racked up 1,006 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 68 catches across 12 games, translating to a juicy 17.6 fantasy points per game when healthy—putting him close to top-5 WR territory. His early-season dominance (122 yards per game through Week 4) and playoff heroics (203 yards over two games) showcased his chemistry with C.J. Stroud, while his 2.87 yards per route run ranked second among wideouts, proving he’s a mismatch machine.
With Stefon Diggs lost to free agency (Patriots) and Tank Dell likely sidelined, Collins could potentially step into a target share that could hit 30%+, supported by new additions like Kirk and rookie Higgins, making his ADP feel like purchasing a brand new vehicle at a used car price.
Sure, his injury history—17 games missed over four years—might make some managers sweat more than a rookie QB in a Super Bowl, but Collins’ per-game dominance (WR8 in points per game in 2024) suggests he’s worth the risk over peers like Thomas or Drake London.
His 2023 breakout (1,297 yards, eight TDs) and 2024 red-zone prowess (27.3% target share, five TDs) show he’s Stroud’s go-to guy, especially with a Texans offense projected to lean pass-heavy against softer defenses like the Colts.
Compared to Brown, who battles injury concerns at 28, or Thomas, who’s tied to Lawrence’s inconsistency, Collins’ 25-year-old frame and proven 17.4 PPG average (2023) give him a higher floor—think his consistent dismantling of AFC South competition.
Drafting him at this slot is like betting on a racehorse that’s already won the warm-up lap—laugh off the naysayers and watch him gallop to your fantasy trophy case!
Fantasy Football Verdict - Collins vs. Thomas
In a decision that is laying the foundation of your fantasy football roster, a selection of this magnitude is setting the stage for who will be your WR1 during the 2025 fantasy football season.
There are certainly numerous positive aspects to consider when examining these two individuals. But during the early stages of the drafts, many fantasy managers are looking for the more sure-fire player and avoiding any potential negatives. Both players feel like you're holding onto a winning lottery ticket, but the caveat comes down to which one returns more profit?
As I have dissected the analytics between both of these wide receivers, the decision ultimately comes down to upside. The player who is currently shining brighter, given all the variables at play, in my opinion, is Thomas.
Even with the question marks surrounding Lawrence, the addition of Liam Coen and his system, along with a bona fide threat on the other side of the field in Travis Hunter, Thomas is poised to be the focal point of a passing attack that should see plenty of negative game scripts.
Deciding between these two receivers is the epitome of splitting hairs, but Collins' injury history is also enough to sway me in the direction of the younger Thomas.
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