MLB DFS Picks Today: Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy and Tips For FanDuel, DraftKings (4/16/25)

Brandon Pfaadt - ARI vs. MIA ($8.7K DK; $8.6K FD)

Pfaadt has emerged as a reliable arm for the Diamondbacks, combining a high-strikeout arsenal with improved command. His four-pitch mix, featuring a mid-90s fastball, sweeper, curveball, and changeup, has been particularly effective against right-handed hitters, where he boasts a 28% strikeout rate and a .275 xwOBA allowed.

Facing the Marlins, Pfaadt gets a dream matchup. Miami’s lineup is one of the weakest in baseball against right-handed pitching, posting a 27.6 percent strikeout rate, a paltry .289 xwOBA, and a .143 ISO that ranks near the bottom of the league. This lack of power and contact ability makes it tough for them to string together rallies.

For cash games, Pfaadt’s floor is rock-solid, projecting for six to eight strikeouts and a quality start. In GPPs, his upside shines if he racks up eight or more Ks or shuts out the Marlins entirely, potentially pushing 25+ DK points. The price tag is reasonable for his ceiling, making him a priority across formats.

Aaron Nola - PHI vs. SF ($9K DK; $8.8K FD)

Nola remains a cornerstone of the Phillies’ rotation, delivering consistency and durability that make him a DFS darling. His 26.8% strikeout rate against right-handed batters, paired with an elite 4.8% walk rate that minimizes free baserunners. Nola’s pitch mix, fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup keep hitters off balance, and his ability to induce weak contact mitigates the hitter-friendly tendencies of Citizens Bank Park.

The Giants are a favorable matchup as they strike out 24.8 percent of the time against righties and have a middling .308 xwOBA, with only moderate power. Their lineup lacks the high-end thump to exploit Nola’s occasional mistake pitches.

His projected 16.62 DK points reflect a high floor, ideal for cash games where you need a pitcher who won’t sink your lineup. For GPPs, Nola’s upside comes from his ability to rack up seven to nine strikeouts or navigate a low-scoring game against a Giants team that struggles to barrel up quality pitching. He’s slightly pricier than Pfaadt but offers a safer profile for players prioritizing consistency over raw ceiling.

Kris Bubic - KC vs. NYY ($8.4K DK; $10.2K FD)

Bubic is a high-risk, high-reward GPP option who’s turning heads in 2025 with a breakout in strikeout production. His 32.3 percent strikeout rate against right-handed batters is among the slate’s best, driven by a filthy changeup and slider that generate whiffs at a 15.8 percent swinging-strike rate. Bubic’s also stingy with power, allowing just a .089 ISO to righties, which is critical against a Yankees lineup that can mash when they connect.

New York’s 22.8 percent strikeout rate against lefties is exploitable, and their .321 xwOBA vs. LHP is solid but not elite, especially if Aaron Judge is neutralized by Bubic’s off-speed stuff.

His 20.87 projected DK points on DraftKings make him a value at $8,400, but his $10,200 FanDuel price is steep, so prioritize him on DK for GPP builds. The key risk is the Yankees’ lineup, which can flip a game with one swing. If he maintains his swing-and-miss stuff, he could deliver six to eight Ks and 20-25 DK points, making him a great leverage play in tournaments.

Also Consider:

Osvaldo Bido - OAK - ($7.2K DK; $8K FD): A budget-friendly option against a White Sox lineup with a 25.4 percent K-rate and .287 xwOBA vs. righties. Guaranteed Rate Field is hitter-friendly, but Chicago’s lack of power keeps Bido’s floor intact for 15-18 DK points.

Pavin Smith - ARI - 1B/OF (FD Only) ($4.5K DK; $2.8K FD)

Pavin Smith is flying under the radar, but he’s one of the best leverage plays on the slate against Max Meyer. Smith’s 0.273 ISO and 0.402 xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching showcase his ability to mash, yet his ownership remains low due to his unflashy name and Arizona’s crowded lineup. Meyer, despite his prospect hype, has struggled with a 0.246 ISO allowed to LHB and a mediocre 19.9 K percentage in that split, which bodes well for Smith’s power profile.

What sets Smith apart is his patience at the plate; his 11.7 BB percentage ensures he’s getting on base even on quieter nights. Meyer’s inexperience and the Marlins’ shaky bullpen could lead to a few big innings for Arizona, and Smith’s spot in the top half of the order maximizes his chances to cash in. He’s a cornerstone for stacks or a sneaky one-off if you’re punting first base to spend up elsewhere.

Jose Ramirez - CLE - 3B ($5.7K DK; $3.9K FD)

J-Ram is the definition of a cash game anchor facing Dean Kremer. While his 0.227 ISO and 0.314 xwOBA vs. RHP aren’t the gaudiest, Ramirez’s elite plate discipline (12.8 K percentage, 8.4 BB percentage) and versatility make him a DFS stud.

Kremer’s struggles against left-handed bats are well-documented, with a 0.196 ISO allowed and 0.338 xwOBA, setting up Ramirez for success in the heart of Cleveland’s lineup. Ramirez's ability to contribute across the board gives him a high floor and ceiling on both platforms.

Brent Rooker - OAK - OF - ($5.4K DK; $3.4K FD)

Rooker’s a power-hitting machine, and he gets a favorable matchup against Jonathan Cannon at Guaranteed Rate Field. Cannon’s 17.1 K percentage and .340 xwOBA against lefties aren’t terrible, but Rooker’s .371 xwOBA and .245 ISO versus RHP make him a home run threat. The park’s hitter-friendly nature boosts his upside, and his price is reasonable for his ceiling. Use him in GPPs on DK and as a mid-tier cash game option on FD.

Corbin Carroll - ARI - OF - ($6.2K DK; $4K FD)

Carroll’s been a DFS darling this season, and he’s in a smash spot against Meyer. His .351 xwOBA and .241 ISO against righties pair beautifully with Meyer’s .326 xwOBA allowed to lefties. Carroll’s speed gives him a massive floor, and his .253 xHR projection adds GPP upside. LoanDepot Park isn’t ideal for power, but Carroll’s ability to spray doubles and triples keeps him in play. At $4,000 on FanDuel, he’s a cash-game lock and a great stack anchor with Naylor and Pavin Smith.

Teoscar Hernandez - LAD - OF - ($5.2K DK; $3.8K FD)

Hernandez’s .330 xwOBA and .205 ISO vs. righties make him a prime target against Marquez’s .329 xwOBA allowed to right-handed bats. His 0.395 xHR projection is massive, and Dodger Stadium’s neutral park factors don’t hurt his multi-hit upside. He’s a cash-game value on FD and a GPP stack anchor on DK.

Also Consider:

James Wood - WSH vs. PIT ($5.2K DK; $3.7K FD), Jarren Duran - BOS vs. TB ($5.2K DK; $3.6K FD), Brenton Doyle - COL vs. LAD ($4.1K DK; $3.5K FD): High-upside outfielders with speed and power against pitchers (Falter, Littell, Miller) who can be exploited.