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Hayden Epinette evaluates the fantasy football value of Rams running back Kyren Williams in dynasty leagues heading into 2024. He ranks him among dynasty RBs in the NFL.
Coming off of a disastrous 5-12 season, the Los Angeles Rams were expected to struggle in 2023. With quarterback Matthew Stafford back in the starting lineup, it was expected that the defense would be the side of the ball holding the team back. However, the defense was better than anticipated, and the offense was excellent; this led to a 10-7 record for the Rams and a playoff appearance.
A pair of surprising offensive stars propelled the team to their success. The first was rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua. Although star wideout Cooper Kupp missed time with injuries, Nacua stepped up to be the reliable target Stafford needed. The former BYU Cougar dominated, catching 105 passes for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns. Both his reception and yardage totals set new NFL records among rookies.
The other breakout player was running back Kyren Williams, who was in his second year in the league. Williams quickly established himself as a valuable fantasy asset for both redraft and dynasty managers. A lot has changed for the young tailback in the past few months, though, necessitating a review of his dynasty value. Should you be buying, holding, or selling Williams? This article will help determine the correct approach.
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Kyren Williams 2023 Season Review
Cam Akers was the starting RB for the Rams in Week 1, but he put forth an awful performance in the opener, tallying just 29 yards on 22 carries. Williams was better, totaling 52 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 15 attempts. The team had already seen enough; Akers was made inactive for Week 2 and dealt to the Minnesota Vikings shortly thereafter. This meant Williams was handed control of the backfield.
The 2022 fifth-round pick made use of this opportunity. Week 2 marked his first career start, and Williams totaled 100 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage. Williams started the next four games as well. In his first five starts of the season, he averaged 101.4 scrimmage yards per game and scored five total touchdowns. Williams was particularly effective in Week 4 when he ran for 103 yards and two scores and in Week 6 when he picked up 158 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Unfortunately, in that Week 6 game Williams suffered a high ankle sprain. The young running back was placed on IR ahead of Week 7 and did not return to play until Week 12. However, when he did return, he did so with a vengeance. That week, Williams rushed for 143 yards on 16 carries, and he added six catches for 61 yards and two touchdowns through the air. He was the league's RB1 for the week in PPR formats.
The deluge of fantasy points continued from there. From Week 12 through Week 17, Williams was the PPR RB2 behind just Christian McCaffrey. With 101 total yards and three total TDs in Week 17, Williams posted his second RB1 finish of the season. The game also marked his eighth week inside the top-10 RBs in PPR out of just 12 appearances. With the Rams already having locked up a playoff berth, Williams was rested in Week 18.
The injury bug reared its ugly head again for Williams in the team's Wild Card matchup versus Detroit. He fractured his hand, which required surgery after the Lions bounced the Rams from the postseason. Williams put together a string of elite performances to conclude the regular season, but his injuries throughout the year left fantasy managers wondering if his 5-foot-9, 194-pound frame would be able to withstand a sizeable workload in the future.
What is Kyren Williams' Fantasy Football Worth in Dynasty Leagues?
Williams' stock in dynasty leagues has taken a hit over the past month. The first crucial development was when the Rams selected running back Blake Corum in the third round of the NFL Draft. Corum was a star as a Michigan Wolverine; he rushed for 3,737 yards and 58 touchdowns during his time in Ann Arbor, and he was a consensus All-American in 2022. His addition to the Rams' backfield could lead to a reduction in Williams' workload.
Reports that Williams is dealing with a foot injury have also lowered his value. Last week, head coach Sean McVay announced that Williams would not be participating in OTAs due to a foot issue. However, McVay also downplayed the ailment and claimed he would be fine for training camp. While this may be true, fantasy managers have taken note of Williams' ever-expanding injury history and have become concerned with his durability.
The notion that Corum will greatly damage Williams' outlook should be met with skepticism. Even if Corum's presence does lead to fewer opportunities for Williams, the latter can spare a portion of what he got last year and still be elite. Indeed, Williams led all RBs with an 83.9% snap share last year, and he was fourth in opportunity share. His efficiency will keep him producing well anyway; Williams was eighth among RBs in true yards per carry last year, as well as 10th in both fantasy points per opportunity and juke rate.
The injuries are admittedly off-putting and should be priced in. However, passing up on a 23-year-old running back who just averaged 21.3 PPR points per game last season would be foolish. Williams is firmly among the top 10 dynasty RBs, and the recent pessimism surrounding him makes him an excellent target in trades. Buying Williams during this current dip in value could prove to be incredibly fruitful.
Kyren Williams 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
As many have pointed out, Williams is McVay's best running back since Todd Gurley. Gurley was used as the team's workhorse until he was no longer able to fill that role; expect Williams to be featured the same way despite Corum's addition to the roster. This workload will not only lead to lots of yards but also lots of touchdowns. Williams was fourth among RBs with 60 red zone touches last year, 11 of which were on the goal line. There is little reason to believe scoring opportunities will be less abundant in 2024.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the main obstacle between Williams and fantasy success this year will be injuries. Williams' ankle sprain last year was not his first; he also sustained one previously in Week 1 of 2022. Moreover, he suffered a broken foot in practice ahead of the 2022 season. This list of foot and ankle injuries, along with his absence from OTAs, is troubling.
Still, Williams should be viewed as a top-10, arguably top-five, running back in fantasy football this year across formats. While his excellent efficiency from last year should be expected to regress to the mean slightly, barring major injury his stat line from last year (1,350 total yards and 15 total touchdowns) will be achievable once again. Rather than looking at his 2023 campaign as a fluke, view it as a sign of what is to come.
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