Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational outright betting card.

The four names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 22 outright winners (a 21.3% hit rate) for a profit of over $15,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 41.7%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational!

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card

Xander Schauffele (20-1)

To this point, 2024 has been a year characterized by "what-ifs" for Xander Schauffele. Over the course of five starts, he's found himself with legitimate chances to win on four occasions -- recording finishes of 3rd, 4th, 9th, and 10th on America's Western Coast. In that time, only Scottie Scheffler and Matthieu Pavon have gained more strokes to the field, yet the overall sentiment on Schauffele in the betting community has turned overwhelmingly negative.

This disinterest in betting Xander outright has caused prices to drift into the 20-1 range, a number I will not be able to resist on a player who is not only playing some of the best golf of his entire career, but also perfectly suits the grueling test Bay Hill will offer this week.

When filtering for comparable courses with driver-heavy layouts, thick rough, and difficult scoring conditions (specifically Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields, Oak Hill, Brookline, and Southern Hills over the last two seasons), Xander rates out as the seventh-best total driver of the ball in this field. He's recently gained 3.7 strokes off of the tee in three rounds around Torrey Pines South -- the golf course to this point in 2024 with the greatest deal of correlation with Bay Hill's thick rough and difficult-to-hit fairways, and actually ranked fifth that week in driving accuracy.

This off-the-tee proficiency around difficult driving venues will pair perfectly this week with Xander's most lethal attribute: his long-iron play. Over the last two seasons, Schauffele ranks in the 99th percentile on the PGA Tour from 200+ yards in Strokes Gained per Shot, Green in Regulation Percentage, Proximity to the Hole, and Good Shot Percentage. Not even Scottie Scheffler has been able to match the recent figures Xander has recorded with a long iron in his hand, and at a golf course that features one of highest distributions of Approach Shots from over 200 yards (31.7%), Schauffele will have ample opportunities to flex his most elite trait.

Xander has also putted extraordinarily well around Bay Hill in two trips, gaining a combined 9.4 strokes on the greens over 8 competitive rounds, and rates out inside the top 25 in each of my key short game metrics (SG: ARG, Sand Saves, Bogey Avoidance). There isn't a metric in my modeling that doesn't paint Xander Schauffele as an elite option this week, yet we're getting the best price we've gotten all season on the San Diego kid. I understand the reservations out there regarding Schauffele's inability to close the deal, but the betting board isn't exactly teaming with guys with spotless Sunday track records. Curiously, Xander also rates as the 3rd best player in this field in Round 4 tee-to-green play thus far in 2024, whilst his normally reliable putter has lost him over two shots per round in R4. That's a regression spot if I've ever seen it, and I remain bullish on a guy who, with a win, would catapult himself into the conversation as the best player on the planet.

Ludvig Åberg (22-1)

Ludvig Aberg with a beauty from 188 yards out to set up birdie and retake the lead. 🤌 #BMWPGA

📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @ROLEX | #ROLEXSeries pic.twitter.com/3bJ8X2peiO

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) September 16, 2023

With a win last fall at the RSM Classic and a runner-up finish last month at Pebble Beach, the long-hitting Ludvig Åberg has proven more than capable around some of the PGA Tour's shorter venues. This week at Bay Hill, however, golf fans will get to watch one of the game's premier drivers in full flight around a 7,500-yard, Major Championship-esque setup. Since he officially came on Tour last summer at the RBC Canadian Open, Åberg has turned heads with his combination of distance and accuracy off of the tee -- gapping the rest of the PGA Tour in Total Driving in the process.

For the first time in his professional Ludvig will also get a chance to see a PGA Tour course for the second time. His "Hello World" moment to much of the golfing public came right here at Bay Hill last year, as the then-senior at Texas Tech University entered Round 3 in a tie for ninth, before settling in at a respectable T24 at weeks end. The most intriguing thing about that week from a handicapping angle was Ludvig's proficiency on these lightning-quick greens: as Åberg gained 4.8 strokes putting in four rounds here last season, and has found similar success on other bermudagrass complexes over the last 12 months (Sea Island, Sedgefield, Wai'alae, etc.).

If that initial comfort on these greens carries over to his professional debut, Åberg's ball striking has proven to be much more well-adapted to the PGA Tour than it was last spring. In addition to his aforementioned driving prowess, Ludvig also comes into this week on the back of 11 consecutive starts with a positive SG: Approach rating, and given his immense length, it's no coincidence that three of the best iron weeks he's had in that stretch have come on some of the Tour's most long-iron intensive venues: Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Wentworth.

Although he's still a few months away from his first birthday in professional golf, Åberg has proven himself to not only possess some of the most elite tools we've seen out of a prospect in some time, but also the mental acuity to handle some of the sports brightest lights. He's recorded finishes of second, ninth, and 19th at three premier venues over the last five weeks, and with its combination of length and hazardous rough, Bay Hill might well be the best pure-course fit he'll see all year.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Cameron Young (30-1)

Second favorite pre-tournament Cameron Young starting to show why...

Birdie on 2, heading to par-5 at -3 (thru 11).

Now +1800 live betting via @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/D7TfrqVej8

— Golfbet (@Golfbet) February 29, 2024

The first of two Demon Deacons I've got at the home of Arnold Palmer, Cameron Young has clearly found a similar affinity for Central Florida as his school's most famous alma mater did 45 years ago. In two starts at the home of the King, Young has recorded finishes of 10th and 13th; ranking second in Total Driving in the process.

Young's combination of length and accuracy off of the tee will give him an edge around Bay Hill that few could even imagine. He comes into this week on a string of 11 straight events with a positive SG: OTT rating, and has racked up finishes of third, fourth, eighth and 16th over the last six weeks. We've seen Cam ride prolonged stretches of hot and cold throughout his professional career, and with this string of recent results and a proven affinity for Bay Hill itself, this week will present another golden opportunity to get the winning monkey off of his back.

Young also rates inside the top five in Proximity from >200 yards, and has made a name for himself on the back of top results around the Tour's most difficult venues (Southern Hills, Riviera, Royal Liverpool, etc.). Notably, Cam has also drastically raised his short game baselines at comparable tracks with thick rough and quick greens: gaining an average of 1.4 strokes per start Around the Greens over the last two seasons at Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Torrey Pines, and Southern Hills. If he can pair these short game splits with a ball-striking profile that's tailor-made for Bay Hill's demanding setup, Young stands to be one of the field's most dangerous names in Orlando this weekend.

Will Zalatoris (35-1)

Will Zalatoris’ coach had tears in his eyes watching this birdie putt go in at the 1st, per @SmylieKaufman10.

We did too... pic.twitter.com/gatHR8OyVg

— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) November 30, 2023

I was worried that his runner-up performance around Riviera would cause the market to overvalue his winning prospects, but at prices bordering on 40-1, it seems as though books haven't yet caught up to the potential upside I'm seeing out of the 27-year-old Californian. Zalatoris has never gained less than 5.5 strokes ball-striking in three starts around Bay Hill, and the stripe show he put on with his irons in Pacific Palisades proved that Will is once again in the mix as one of the Tour's preeminent long-iron players.

Zalatoris strung together finishes of second and 13th on the West Coast's two most demanding setups (Riviera and Torrey Pines), and will get to face a similarly difficult test around Bay Hill this week. He's spoken time and time again about his affinity for difficult golf courses, and with the track record he's put down in Major Championships over the last three years, it's hard to find anyone in this field more well-suited to the physical and mental test ahead of the players this week.

As good as the ball-striking looked in Southern California, it's been the improvements in Will's much-maligned short game that gives me the greatest degree of confidence in his future prospects. For the first time in his professional career, Zalatoris gained strokes both on and around the greens in three consecutive starts, and the broomstick putter he's implemented in 2024 has drastically improved Will's notoriously shaky stroke from short range.

In fact, over the first two months of the PGA Tour season, Zalatoris ranks 19th in this elite field in make percentage from 5-10 feet (88.75%), and anecdotally, Zalatoris no longer looks like a player fighting the demons he once did over short putts. If these new short-game gains are truly here to stay, Zalatoris suddenly becomes one of the most bankable players in the sport -- especially at venues such as Bay Hill, where his elite combination of driving distance and long-iron play already provides him with a huge advantage.

It's been a long road back for Will Zalatoris since hurting his back at the 2022 BMW Championship, but all signs I see point to a player ready to return to the top of the game. As a Wake Forest alum, a recipient of the Arnold Palmer Scholarship, and the winner of the Arnold Palmer Rookie of the Year Award, how fitting would it be to see the comeback complete at the home of his alma mater's most famous son?

Best of luck guys, and happy hunting!

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