RADIO
In a world where player projections are crucial to our success in fantasy baseball, we must understand how to value these projections. Factoring in ADP based on our projections is the easiest way to put yourself in positions to have successful drafts.
Over the years, ADP in drafts has become one of the most important aspects of having successful drafts. I view ADP similar to ownership % in DFS. You can differentiate yourself if you know when to eat the chalk or play contrarian. With ADP, if you know what players are overvalued and undervalued by the public, we can exploit that.
Today, we will look at four catchers to either draft or avoid in fantasy drafts based on their current market value, also known as ADP.
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Catchers to Target
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 67.0
RotoBaller Ranking: 97.0 (-30.0)
I first want to start by saying I usually do not love drafting catchers at the top of the board. Our projections here at RotoBaller would agree, as we have nine of the top 10 catchers on the board as negatively leveraged based on ADP. I will include our top two leveraged catchers below, but if you want to take a shot at someone earlier in the draft, Smith is your guy.
Smith had a great season last year, slashing .261/.359/.438 with 19 HRs, 76 RBI, and 80 Rs. His 16.1% K% is elite, but one of the most essential traits Smith possesses is his ability to be on the field. Smith has played 130, 137, and 126 games in his last three seasons. During that span, his 393 games were third behind Salvador Perez and J.T. Realmuto.
Smith will now have the vital role of batting cleanup in the best lineup in the big leagues. He will now hit behind Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman. Eric Cross said it best, as it is not out of the question to see Smith post 100 RBI in 2024.
ATC projects Smith to slash .262/.355/.471 with 22 HRs, 76 RBI, and 71 Rs. Although I won't reach for Smith in drafts if he falls to his current ADP, I think he has immense upside, and I believe he will finish at the top of the ranks this season at the catcher position.
Logan O'Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels
ADP: 235.0
RotoBaller Ranking: 195.0 (+40.0)
For those of you who trust the projections (as you should), Logan O'Hoppe is our best value on the board at the catcher position based on the current ADP.
O'Hoppe had an incredible rookie year for the Angels and could have been better if he stayed healthy. O'Hoppe finished 2023 slashing .236/.296/.500 with 14 HRs and 29 RBI. His 15.6% Barrel% ranked the 23rd best in baseball and second at the catcher position to only Sean Murphy.
After his return from injury in the middle of August, O'Hoppe was one of baseball's best offensive catchers. His .500 SLG ranked fourth, .337 wOBA ranked 13th, 113 wRC+ ranked 14th, and his 14 HRs ranked 21st, although having much fewer at-bats over the span.
ATC has O'Hoppe projected to slash .253/.329/.463 with 22 HRs and 62 RBI. He is being drafted as the 22nd catcher off the board, and O'Hoppe has top-five upside at the position. Get your shares while you can.
Bo Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 225.3
RotoBaller Ranking: 206 (+19.3)
Oh, how excited I am to write about Bo Naylor, who will have a massive season for my Cleveland Guardians. We have been waiting for this kid to show some signs, and at the end of last year, you could feel Naylor was on the verge of becoming one of the game's best.
Naylor is currently being drafted at pick 225, and our rankings have him as the 206-ranked player, with a 19.3 pick value. A phenomenal catch-and-throw guy, Naylor finally got the bat going at the major league level to end 2023.
Naylor finished his season slashing .327/.471/.654 in September. He added four HRs and 13 RBI in the month. His .654 SLG, .471 OBP, and 205 wRC+ were first in the MLB among catchers during the span. He did all this while posting a minuscule 11.8% K%. These numbers are elite from the catcher position.
ATC projects Naylor to slash .229/.327/.413 with 15 HRs and 53 RBI. One of my favorite strategies going into the draft is to draft both O'Hoppe and Naylor in Rounds 18-21 and secure my catcher position with two young prospects with upside.
Others to target: Gabriel Moreno (+13.7), Jonah Heim (+7.0)
Catchers to Avoid
William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 66.0
RotoBaller Ranking: 131 (-65.0)
I want to first start by saying this is a perfect example of market value on a player. William Contreras is a tremendous player and one of the game's better catchers, but his ADP ranks him as the second catcher coming off the board. We have him ranked 65 slots behind his ADP, making him an easy fade.
When we compare players getting drafted around Contreras, it's easy to see why. First, starting at the catcher position, Contreras is being selected before Will Smith and J.T. Realmuto. Smith and Realmuto are safe clicks at the position because of their availability to be on the diamond. Add in pieces surrounding Realmuto and Smith compared to Contreras; it's easy to see why he's the odd man out.
When looking at other players around Contreras' ADP, we are passing on guys like Luis Robert Jr., Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Framber Valdez, Freddy Peralta, Cody Bellinger, Adolis Garcia, Alex Bregman, and more. It is easy to see the value of drafting catching late in drafts when laid out like this.
Contreras is a heck of a player and will finish in the top 10 in the position in 2023 without a question, but at the current ADP, give me any of the players listed above, and I will take O'Hoppe and Naylor later in drafts.
Others to avoid: Mitch Garver (-122.7), MJ Melendez (-94.0), Sean Murphy (-53.0)
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