Week 10 Preview: Betting picks for USC, Alabama and more …

November 2, 2023

Week 9 NCAA college football betting picks and matchups previews. Dominick's top CFB games to watch in Week 9, including betting lines and recommendations.

While there are some good games this week, there are none of what you would expect at this time of the season.

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State will be a catfight. Especially if head coach Mike Gundy has anything to say about it. LSU vs. Alabama will be a good game. But are really contenders for the national title?

Although these games will be fun, there is one game that will be fun to watch. If you are a sicko. But you will need to wait until the end to find out which game that is. Let us look at some of the Best games of Week 10 and what some of the betting lines look like.

Biggest Week 10 Games:

(5)Washington vs. (22)USC: Betting Lines: Washington -3.5(-108) O/U 75.5 O(-118)U(-104)|

After defeating Oregon in Week 7, Washington has looked rough in the past two weeks.

Starting with a two-interception performance by Michael Penix Jr. against Arizona State and culminating with the Huskies 42-33 win over Stanford. But what ails the Huskies can be fixed by the terrible defense of USC. A USC team that allows everyone to score. No matter how much they are struggling.

Trojan quarterback Caleb Williams cannot do everything himself. The defense does him nor Lincoln Riley any favors and Washington will not do them any either.

With three top-end wide receivers in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk leading the way, the Huskies offense has been able to put up a nation-leading 399.0 yards/game passing. This is in stark contrast to a USC defense which ranks 106 in pass defense at 248.8 yards.

There is a good chance USC will lose its third of four games against a superior Washington team. And when was the last time you could say that about Washington?

Betting: Washington -3.5 OVER 75.5

(13)LSU vs. (8)Alabama: Betting Lines: Alabama -3 (-115) O/U 60.5 O(-114) U (-106)|

After writing about the USC secondary and pass defense, it seems difficult to imagine another unit being so bad. But this is exactly what we have in the LSU Tigers.

The Tigers, who were struggling to fill out their secondary this off-season, turned to the transfer portal for help. Bringing in former five-star cornerback Denver Harris and others was the right move. But the issues Harris faced at Texas A&M with maturity have followed him to Baton Rouge and he has barely seen the field. With two other cornerbacks out for the season with injury and Greg Brooks out after his cancer diagnosis, the LSU secondary ranks No. 91 nationally against the pass at 238.5 yards/game. This has come despite playing in an SEC with few elite quarterbacks. In the two games LSU has played against good passing teams, the Missouri Tigers put up 411 pass yards and the Ole Miss Rebels put up 389.

Although Jalen Milroe is not a prolific passer, he is a good deep-ball thrower. This will work to the advantage of the Crimson Tide against LSU. Especially with the Alabama offensive line being a surprisingly bad spot on the team. This has caused the Alabama run game to falter to the tune of 147.1 yards/game, which is good for just No. 79 in the country. With Milroe being able to throw downfield and the willingness of LSU to give up the big play, this could be a shootout with Milroe and Jayden Daniels leading the way for the offenses.

Betting: Alabama -3 Over 60.5

(11)Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State: Betting Lines: Oklahoma -5.5(-118) O/U 61.5 O(-105)U(-115)|

Oklahoma is coming into this final edition of Bedlam after a disappointing 38-33 loss to Kansas. This came just one week after barely prevailing over UCF 31-29.

Much like Washington, Oklahoma has played its worst football since its biggest win of the season. In the case of Oklahoma, this was a last-minute Red Rival Rivalry victory against Texas. The bye week following this game did not seem to do anything to help the Sooners who have looked flat on defense since the game. Oklahoma State, which has already beaten the same Kansas team as well as Kansas State, has looked completely different since settling on a QB.

No longer are the early days of the three QB attack. An attack that led to a miserable 33-7 home loss to South Alabama early in the season. Oklahoma State has finally found its rhythm. A rhythm consisting of 184.4 rushing yards/game and 244.6 yards/game passing. The Oklahoma defense, once a strong point, has fallen a bit and ranks No. 89 against the pass (237.6 yards) and No. 53 against the run (132.6 yards).

This will be a knockdown, drag-out fight between these two rivals who hate each other even more with Oklahoma moving to the SEC without the Cowboys. Mike Gundy has already stated how this rivalry used to mean something back in his day. He and Brian Bosworth would spit at each other during the game. Well, this rivalry still means something for Oklahoma. If they lose, they will be eliminated from contention for a playoff berth. With a win, their hopes still have a sliver of light.

Betting: Oklahoma -5.5 Over 61.5

(14)Missouri vs. (1)Georgia: Betting Lines: Georgia -15.5(-110) O/U 54.5 O(-115)U(-105)|

This game should be an easy over. But not because of Missouri and its wide receiver duo of Theo Wease and Luther Burden. No, it will go over due to the final ascension of the Georgia offense and QB Carson Beck.

After using the likes of Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, and James Cook to run down opponents’ throats for many years, Georgia and Beck have thrown for 334.5 yards/game in 2023. Good for No. four in the nation, this has replaced the run game which is averaging 172.1 yards/game. Good for just No. 48 in the country.

While the offense is starting to hum, the defense, although not as dominant as in 2021 and 2022, is still playing at a national championship level. No. 8 in yards allowed (272.1), No. 12 in rush yards/game (93.6), No. 15 in pass yards allowed (175.5 yards/game), and No. 7 in scoring at just 14.5 points allowed. This will help keep the Missouri offense in check and the Bulldogs, who know how to minimize the effectiveness of the biggest weapon on the opposing team, will take Burden out of the game. This will make the Tigers one-sided, and Georgia will swallow up the offense and not allow them to move the ball freely.

Georgia is the two-time defending national champions. Yet they are still ranked behind Ohio State in the first playoff ranking of the season. This will be motivation enough for Kirby Smart to dominate from here on out. But with Missouri coming in and feeling good at 7-1, Georgia will also want to put them back in their place in the SEC hierarchy.

Betting: Georgia -15.5 Over 54.5

And… the Sicko Committee Game of the Year:

Iowa vs. Northwestern: Betting Lines: Iowa -5.5 (-110) O/U 31.5 O(-110)U(-110)|

This is just a fun game to watch. Okay, a boring, slow game. But it does take place in Wrigley Field. So, there is that. But let us just look at some key points.

Iowa is averaging a meager 116.5 passing yards/game. According to Andy Staples from On 3, the Hawkeyes have completed a total of 33 passes for 259 yards and two TDs to all its wide receivers this season. Compare this to LSU’s Malik Nabers who, in one game against Mississippi State, had 13 receptions for 239 yards and two TDs. This means the Iowa offense is not good. The defense for Iowa, though, is good. Allowing just 14.5 points/game, Iowa’s defense is the only reason the Hawkeyes are 6-2 and control their own destiny to get to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game.

Northwestern has already won four games. Including two in the Big Ten. This is more games than most expected them to win, and this is due to the hard work of the interim coaching staff under coach David Braun. He may not be in contention to remain the coach of the Wildcats after this season. But this level of success in such a tricky situation should get him a head coaching job somewhere in 2024.

The Problem with this game is, well, neither team can score. This will be an ugly game as shown by the posted Over/Under of just 31.5. This total is historically low. But it might not be low enough as I still expect this one to go under. Just watch this game. Do not expect an exciting game. Just watch and remember how football used to be played. And Enjoy.

Betting: Northwestern +5.5 Under 31.5

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