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What a World Series MLB has provided us. I will be the first to admit I was not excited to watch these two teams duke it out, but this has been a great battle so far. With the Rangers leading the series 2-1, the Diamondbacks are in a must-win spot in game four to tie the series up with two more home games. Who would have thought that a roof being open or closed would change the whole perspective of the day? As you will read along, you will understand why. I will provide my favorite MLB Betting Pick and Player Prop on tonight's single-game slate.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks and player props for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 31, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, team totals, as well as pitcher and hitter props. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: ARZ (-106)
TEX: Andrew Heaney | ARZ: Bullpen
We have reached game four, which allows me to rant a little bit about something I have noticed in the playoffs. For some reason, having an efficient fourth starter in the rotation is a lost art. In a best-of-seven series, this has been a major factor throughout this postseason. It has seemed that game four has been the swing game in every series.
The Rangers will send Andrew Heaney to the mound as the Diamondbacks will send an arsenal of relievers, starting with Joe Mantiply as the opener. I will be honest here as I don't have an official bet yet in this game. I lean toward the Diamondbacks winning this game off the strength of its bullpen, as we saw against Philadelphia in the NLCS. So far in the postseason, this bullpen is 5-1 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 21.8% K%. Andrew Heaney, in the postseason, has an 8.31 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and a 4.8% K%. This is an immediate advantage to the Diamondbacks.
If the roof is open, I will most likely bet the Diamondbacks over in team total or the over in the game. As of now, we do not have that information. This park plays much differently with the roof open, and in a game where five pitchers were used yesterday, I expect Heaney to exit early and for us and see some arms that haven't pitched much this postseason for Texas. Let's wait and see what happens with the roof, but if it is open, I will rank my bets as Diamondbacks O4.5 runs, O9.5 total runs, then Diamondbacks moneyline. If the roof is closed, I will more than likely bet the Diamondbacks moneyline, but I do not love it.
Pick: TBD (Waiting on Roof)
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tommy Pham OVER 1.5 total bases (+130 DraftKings SportsBook)
I want to lead by saying that I wish I could write up Christian Walker in this spot, but the man cannot be trusted. So, instead, let's talk about Tommy Pham. Pham has been electric in this World Series, collecting seven hits in 13 at-bats across three games. He now will get to square off against a lefty in Andrew Heaney, who struggles against right-hand hitters. Heaney, through the postseason, has allowed a .366 wOBA and a .235 ISO against the split. Pham has a .583 wOBA and a .455 ISO in the postseason against left-hand pitching.
Another bonus bet here that I love with the boosts DraftKings and FanDuel are offering is a hit parlay between Tommy Pham and Ketel Marte. Both of these hitters are hot, and it’s a great way to continue to ride Marte's hit streak and attack Pham's hot streak for less.
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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