Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - Detroit Lions 2023 Outlooks

August 13, 2023

Phil Clark's fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, busts, and safe picks on the Lions. A 2023 fantasy football offensive preview for the Detroit Lions

An unrelenting collection of news updates from all 32 training camps have blended with the emergence of preseason matchups to deliver an ongoing reminder that Week 1 of the regular season is steadily approaching. That’s why the team at RotoBaller is delivering non-stop updates along with an extensive collection of articles and rankings that will help you prepare for your upcoming drafts, and navigate the challenges of managing your rosters.

That includes our ongoing series of Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, which shifts the spotlight toward determining how you should value players who will be operating with integral roles for their teams. This article will focus on a Detroit Lions team that has been constructed by Brad Holmes, molded by Dan Campbell, and is now tantalizingly close to achieving a level of success that has eluded the franchise for an extended period of time.

Fantasy managers have invested in a cluster of Lions who will function with pivotal roles while operating behind an offensive line that has been ranked fifth overall by PFF. This article will examine whether three of these players will exceed their ADPs, or will fail to justify their current cost.

Fantasy Football Lock - Amon-Ra St. Brown

Several Lions are primed to accumulate favorable numbers while bolstering fantasy managers’ prospects of competing for league championships. However, St. Brown easily commandeers lock status among the viable draft selections that are contained on Detroit’s roster.

Jared Goff ➡️ Amon-Ra St. Brown. Touchdown @Lions!

📺: #JAXvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/v9GIqhdjpD pic.twitter.com/wPp9qiPoRv

— NFL (@NFL) December 4, 2022

St. Brown’s modest draft capital hardly qualifies as breaking news, but it is worth a reminder that 16 wide receivers were selected before him during the 2021 NFL Draft - including Dez Fitzpatrick, Anthony Schwartz, and D’Wayne Eskridge. St. Brown has proceeded to eviscerate the modest expectations that materialized from his Round 4 selection.

St. Brown’s late-season statistical eruption during his rookie season launched him to a place of prominence within the fantasy landscape that he is likely to sustain for the foreseeable future. St. Brown soared to second with an average of 25.2 points per game from Weeks 13-18 in 2021 while capturing 10+ targets during all six of those matchups. He also finished among the top three in targets (67/11.2 per game), targets per route run (33.2%), receptions (51/8.5 per game), and receiving yards (560/93.3 per game) and was sixth in yards per route run (2.77) during that sequence.

D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson combined for nine missed games during that span, which limited them to 16 targets, 10 receptions, and 72 yards. That fueled divergent options regarding St. Brown's ability to build upon the numbers that he had assembled without that tandem in the lineup.

However, you are already aware that St. Brown is now entrenched among the league’s unquestioned WR1s after he finished ninth overall with a 28% target share in 2022 while securing a double-digit target total in eight different matchups. He also finished eighth in targets (146/9.1 per game), fourth in targets per route run (33.4%), fifth in receptions (106/6.6 per game), and 10th in yards per route run (2.66), while functioning from the slot on 76.3% of his routes.

With that little hook and latter catch, #Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is now tied for the most receptions by a player through two-career seasons in #NFL history. #OnePride @amonra_stbrown pic.twitter.com/CNyispxYZh

— Logan Lamorandier (@LLamorandier) January 9, 2023

St. Brown has now accumulated 196 receptions (5.9 per game) during his first two seasons, which is the most among all members of the 2021 draft class and the seventh-highest total at his position. He is also 12th in targets (265/8.0 per game), and 17th in receiving yards (2,073/62.8 per game) among all wide receivers during that span, while easily leading the Lions in each category.

Some ridiculous ball tracking from Amon-Ra St. Brown here. pic.twitter.com/7kNFaRcBg5

— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) July 30, 2023

St. Brown will continue to operate as Jared Goff's primary receiving option while residing atop a depth chart that contains Jameson Williams, Marvin Jones Jr., Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and Denzel Mims. That leaves St. Brown unimpeded toward functioning with a massive target share. He has already proven that he can remain highly proficient in his extensive role, and you should not hesitate to seize him as your WR1 if you are drafting at the beginning of Round 2.

Fantasy Football Breakout - Jahmyr Gibbs

A universal definition of the term breakout has become elusive as increasing usage of the word has spawned multiple interpretations surrounding the criteria for attaining a breakout season.

However, even though it might be difficult for  Jahmyr Gibbs to outperform the heightened expectations of his Round 3 ADP (31/RB12). he has emerged as a legitimate candidate to attain breakout status. Gibbs is primed to operate with an extensive workload and possesses a favorable blend of versatility and explosiveness that will be displayed during his deployment as both a rusher and a receiving weapon. The convergence of Gibbs’ attributes will provide the Lions with a dynamic and versatile weapon, and his massive role in an offense that ranked fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2022 could easily propel him to high-end RB2 output this season. That would result in numbers that can reward anyone who invests in Gibbs near his current draft position.

This Man is RIDICULOUS !! 4 Star Running Back 🔥 Jahmyr Gibbs '20 | Dalton High (GA) Senior SZN Highlight Mix @Jahmyr_Gibbs1 FULL VIDEO : https://t.co/E8E0pfnLhq pic.twitter.com/rXbhYYDiwg

— Under the Radar (@UTRScouting) February 1, 2020

Gibbs accumulated 4,882 yards and 70 touchdowns on the ground at Dalton High School (Georgia), including 2,554 yards and 40 touchdowns during his final season. Gibbs was also designated as the nation's No. 2 overall all-purpose running back by Rivals. His proficiency as a dual-threat weapon was on display at the collegiate level, as he generated 1,974 total yards during two years at Georgia Tech (2020-2021). He transferred to Alabama for his final season and paced the Crimson Tide in rushing attempts (151), rushing yards (926), and rushing touchdowns (seven). Gibbs also collected 56 targets and finished sixth among all backs with 44 receptions, while eclipsing 440 receiving yards for a second consecutive season.

18 Rushing Attempts
206 Rushing Yards
2 Rushing Touchdowns

Jahmyr Gibbs was just awesome for @AlabamaFTBL against Arkansas. pic.twitter.com/Jk6cevUIHm

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) October 1, 2022

He also averaged 1.83 yards per route run according to PFF - which was sixth overall. Gibbs also earned a  career receiving grade of 92.6 from PFF which was the highest at his position, while also pacing his position with 25 receptions of 15+ yards from 2020-2022.

Jahmyr Gibbs 72-yard Touchdown 💨💨 pic.twitter.com/Nbh8wHlkwm

— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) October 1, 2022

Gibbs also completed the 40-yard dash in a scorching 4.36 at the NFL Combine, which was second among all backs. The 1.52 that he registered in the 10-yard split tied him for third at his position.

These factors merged to elevate Gibbs’ prospects of making an immediate impact at the NFL level, and anticipation for his debut ignited when it became official that he would surface in a favorable environment. The Lions made a significant investment by securing Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in last April’s NFL Draft, and the timeline for Gibbs to seize a critical role in Detroit’s surging offense also accelerated considerably when the Lions jettisoned D'Andre Swift to Philadelphia.

Welcome to joint practices, @Jahmyr_Gibbs1‼️ pic.twitter.com/oGwzuQpH5j

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) August 8, 2023

The Lions could also take advantage of his capabilities by deploying him in the slot, which would expand his involvement as an all-purpose resource even further. This also underscores the likelihood that Gibbs and David Montgomery will occupy the field at the same time, which would be a departure from the deployment of Jamaal Williams and Swift in 2022.

The magnitude of Montgomery’s impending role in Detroit’s backfield rotation is not being underestimated in this evaluation as there will be similarities in his responsibilities and the involvement that fueled Williams’ career-best numbers last season. However, that doesn't automatically preclude Gibbs from reaching the expectations of his ADP.

Montgomery averaged 229 carries (15.3 per game), and 902 yards (60.2 per game) during his four seasons with the Bears while leading Chicago’s backfield in both categories during every year of his tenure. That includes his team-high totals during 2022 (201 attempts/12.6 per game), (801 yards/50.1 per game). He will also procure a sizable workload during his initial season in Detroit, as both backs will accumulate rushing attempts. However, Gibbs will also provide a pass-catching presence from the backfield, while being entrusted with more snaps and touches than Swift garnered last season (28.1 snaps/12.1 touches per game).

The explosive newcomer will also supply the Lions’ offense with a genuine home-run threat whenever he is on the field, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can be expected to maximize Gibbs’ chances of operating in space. This will place him in a position to erupt for big plays, and accumulate fantasy points. It also provides your incentive for targeting him near his Round 3 ADP.

Fantasy Football Bust -  Jameson Williams

Williams was limited to 15 receptions, 268 receiving yards, during two seasons at Ohio State, before transferring to Alabama in 2021. His involvement expanded considerably during his only season with the Crimson Tide, as Williams finished fifth among all wide receivers with 1,574 receiving yards. He also rose to third overall with 15 touchdowns while collecting 79 of his 118 targets, and averaging 19.9 yards per reception.

Those numbers were generated before he sustained a torn ACL during the College Football Playoff National Championship. However, his potential to erupt for significant yardage as a vertical weapon enticed the Lions to select him 12th overall during the 2022 NFL draft, even though a protracted recovery was destined to limit his availability during the regular season. Williams also became a popular roster stash for fantasy managers with the hope that he would deliver big plays during critical late-season matchups.

JAMESON WILLIAMS WITH THE HAT TRICK

What an effort for the @alabamaFTBL touchdown. pic.twitter.com/hq8P07K2Ia

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 20, 2021

Unfortunately, that failed to transpire as Williams ultimately played on just 78 snaps, while never exceeding 18 during any of his six matchups. He also ran a total of 32 routes, was only targeted once during four of his six contests, and was limited to just one reception – even though it did result in a 41-yard touchdown. He also completed the shortened season with an 11.1 catch rate and a total of five yards after the catch.

Despite the underwhelming numbers that were delivered after Williams surfaced from his absence, it was reasonable to anticipate a rise in his usage and output this season while he ascended into a sizable role as Detroit’s WR2 behind St. Brown. His ADP had also risen to Round 7 (75/WR32), prior to the announcement of his six-game suspension for violating the NFL's gambling policy.

BREAKING: Jameson Williams has been suspended for six games for NFL gambling violations. Quintez Cephus and CJ Moore have also been released. pic.twitter.com/BFboqppd5i

— Barstool Detroit (@BSMotorCity) April 21, 2023

His draft position later plummeted to Round 11 (131/WR51) when it became evident that Williams would be unavailable at the onset of the season. Even though that has reduced his cost, there is justifiable concern that Williams will primarily deliver disappointment when he does resurface while failing to match the diminished expectations of his sliding ADP.

"Jameson Williams didn't do anything as a rookie and isn't having a perfect camp...FADE"

Jamo returned from a torn ACL in the same calendar year last season! He shouldn't have been on the field at all and is basically a rookie for the first time in camp. Bad narratives stay bad

— kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) August 3, 2023

His second impactful absence will not only preclude him from operating as a resource for Detroit and fantasy managers, but Williams will also fail to accumulate valuable snaps that would have accelerated his development. This will compound the impact of his recent absence during training camp, as he contended with a leg issue.

#Lions coach Dan Campbell says Jameson Williams has to work on his hand mechanics. “He’s just gotta grind on it,” he said. “It’ll never be probably like one of these elite pass catches that you’ve seen, but it’ll be just fine. With his speed and what he’s able to do.”

— Eric Woodyard (@E_Woodyard) August 2, 2023

This has led to escalating doubt surrounding the likelihood that Williams will develop into the big play presence who could justify the hefty investment that the Lions made in 2022.

Suspension or not, it doesn't seem like Jameson Williams is catching passes this year. pic.twitter.com/NGqFUHYrG5

— Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy) August 11, 2023

There is also a reason for apprehension regarding his prospects of becoming a dependable starter for fantasy managers. This has enhanced the risk of investing in Williams - even at his declining ADP  during his truncated second season.