Early 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values - Hitters to Target

January 17, 2025

Corbin looks at five fantasy baseball hitters to target in early drafts in 2025. Can these hitters be potential values based on their ADP?

Finding hitter targets should have a process, though sometimes bias seeps into the analysis. Using STEAMER projections and Draft Champions ADP since December 1, we can identify hitters to target based on the market. For context, we're looking at hitter values for 15-team leagues with two catchers, five outfielders, one middle infield, one corner infielder, and one utility spot.

We'll use projections to identify five hitters to target in early 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. Additionally, we examine the hitter's skills and potential flaws since we want to consider a range of outcomes for a player.

For this article, we identified five potential hitters to target from picks 75 to 250, with their projected ranking currently 30 spots or more ahead of their ADP. Fantasy players should note targeting the following hitters for 2025 drafts.

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

NFBC ADP Since December 1: 87
Projected Rank: 48

We've typically seen Luis Robert's ADP around the projections-based rank in the past. However, health has been an issue for Robert, with a peak of 595 plate appearances in 2023. That said, part of the STEAMER projections liking Robert more involves expecting a career-high in plate appearances (674).

Unfortunately, the context of Robert's team lineup will hurt the counting stats, as the projections indicate. That's evident in the projected runs plus RBI of 165-170, which should be higher for a player projected for over 650 plate appearances in a prime lineup spot.

It's faint praise, but the White Sox have three other hitters projected for a 100 wRC+ or higher, including Mike Tauchman, Andrew Benintendi, and Andrew Vaughn.

Besides the team context, Robert's skills in 2024 might make us pause. Robert reached career lows in contact rate since his rookie season, with a career-low in barrels per plate appearance. When we find career lows from a hitter, let's check the injury history.

Robert had a Grade 2 hip flexor strain in April, causing him to miss about two months, then had a rib injury in late September. His Exit Velocity 50 or EV50 per Baseball Savant remained similar at 101.2 mph in 2024. EV50 is the average of the hardest 50 percent of a player's batted balls.

Assuming Robert's power and contact rates regress in 2025, there's a potential bounce-back season. Over the past two seasons, Robert's stolen base chances went to 24 percent (2023) and 34 percent (2024), hinting at stolen bases keeping his fantasy value afloat.

Admittedly, the STEAMER projections might be too optimistic on the plate appearances, though we can't rule out the ceiling outcome. Put the team bias aside and take the discount on Robert in 2025.

Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC ADP Since December 1: 99
Projected Rank: 64

Here's another scenario where the STEAMER projections have Junior Caminero for more plate appearances than expected. Caminero logged 177 plate appearances in 2024, with STEAMER projecting 643. While that seems high, there's a realistic scenario where Caminero reaches a career-best in 2025.

His contact rates were average to below average, though we don't want to overreact to the small MLB sample. Caminero's power is where we can dream. That's evident in Caminero's 15th-best maximum exit velocity, 33rd-best EV50, and eighth-highest average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (97.8 mph) among players with 100 batted ball events.

The underlying power metrics should help the batting average via the xBA remain above average, assuming he continues to destroy the ball. In a 15-team league, having Caminero as your starting 3B might be risky. However, in shallower 10 or 12-team leagues, Caminero possesses the upside as a middle-round pick.

From 2021 to 2024, only Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, and Brandon Lowe reached 600 plate appearances for the Rays. Meanwhile, six other Rays' hitters logged 500 plate appearances from 2021-2024. We'll want to invest in Caminero in 2025 because 500-600 plate appearances seem likely.

Luis Rengifo, 2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP Since December 1: 161
Projected Rank: 130

Luis Rengifo ran wild in the first half before landing on the injured list in July and having wrist surgery in August. Rengifo had a career-high in stolen bases (24) after 18 combined in the previous five seasons. His stolen bases skyrocketed via outlier levels of stolen base chances at 38 percent compared to a career average of 13 percent.

After Rengifo traded contact for more power in 2023, his power metrics fell to career lows or nearly there in several categories. He had the second-lowest barrels per plate appearance (two percent) and half of his career average (four percent).

Furthermore, Rengifo's Expected Power Index (xPX) went from a career-best of 98 in 2023 to 62 in 2024. That indicates Rengifo lacks average power, making 2023 likely unrepeatable.

STEAMER projects Rengifo for 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases. The stolen base projection seems more reasonable than the home runs, though 12-15 would be reasonable over a full season. Regardless of the projection, Rengifo should contribute in five categories, and we love the positional flexibility.

Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies

NFBC ADP Since December 1: 184
Projected Rank: 153

There's something to be said about steadiness from a player. That's what we see with Alec Bohm. He totaled over 600 plate appearances in three straight seasons with $13-14 of earned value as a three to four-category contributor. Bohm boasts above-average contact rates overall and in the zone, giving a high floor for batting average.

That somewhat carries Bohm's xBA numbers, similar to his actual BA over the past two seasons. Though Bohm is built like a linebacker, he lacks above-average power skills. Over the past two seasons, he slightly outperformed his power output compared to his average to below-average power metrics, evidenced by his 89 xPX and 5.3 percent barrels per plate appearance.

Part of the problem involves him hitting groundballs 45 percent of the time. If a hitter tends to put the ball on the ground, we want them to have high-end average exit velocities on flyballs and line drives.

Unfortunately, Bohm ranked 152nd with a 92.4 mph average EV on FB/LD in 2024, tying him with Thairo Estrada and Amed Rosario. However, Bohm's EV50 at 100.8 mph (No. 92) gives us slightly more optimism for average or slightly above in the power metrics.

Sometimes, boring players like Bohm become discounted, making him a target as a starting third baseman or corner infielder in most leagues. That's especially true when the skills have been consistent and likely repeatable for Bohm in 2025, earning nearly $15 again.

TJ Friedl, OF, Cincinnati Reds

NFBC ADP Since December 1: 252
Projected Rank: 161

After a peak season in 2023, including 18 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and $16 of earned value, TJ Friedl had wrist, thumb, and hamstring injuries impact him in 2024. That seems to have discounted Friedl's ADP in 2025 compared to a 2024 ADP around pick 125.

Friedl's skills were similar to his breakout 2023 season and career. That's evident in his 92.1 percent zone contact rate in 2024, with below-average power (2.3 percent barrels per plate appearance). Friedl outperformed his skills in 2023 with a 99 PX and 69 xPX. However, the power skill numbers aligned in 2024, with 80 PX and 79 xPX.

Maybe we can blame the injuries in 2024, but Friedl's stolen base chances fell from 24 percent (2023) to 13 percent (2024) compared to a career average of 19 percent. If Friedl's stolen base chances regress to something between 2023 and 2024, it should clear a path for 17-20 stolen bases in 2025.

Take the discounted price on Friedl as a third or fourth outfielder in 15-team leagues. There's a path for double-digit dollars in earned value, with 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases as a floor outcome and 13/20 being reasonable. It's a cheap path to volume for the projected leadoff hitter for the Reds, assuming health.

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