Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Forwards (Part 1)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage.

Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good and for the bad. For whatever reason -- be it talent, a lack/surplus of opportunity, or some combination of those and multiple other things -- these are players who I'm actively tracking in drafts to see how their ADP evolves as we get closer to the regular season.

Let's look at some forwards who have sleeper/bust potential this year in fantasy basketball leagues.

Featured Promo: Our friends at Sharp App have created the ultimate tools for sports bettors. Download the FREE app to track bets, compare odds, get daily picks from the most accurate models in the industry, and identify the sharp side of any bet. Use promo code BALLER to get a month free of Sharp Pro access. Get The App!


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Forwards

Overvalued: Kevin Durant, SF/PF (BKN) - ADP: 3.4

Is it even possible to overvalue a player as great as Kevin Durant? Well, it is. It is because Durant's ADP of 3.4 OVR on average is the second-highest only behind reigning MVP Nikola Jokic's 1.1 OVR. Saying that alone would be falling short of making a case against drafting KD with the second overall pick, though, so let me explain my reasoning.

Durant has been magnificent and will probably stay on his recent level for one or two more years at the very least. Durant, though, is about to play in his age-34 season. Only three times has a player averaged Durant's 51+ FPPG when playing at such age: 2019 LeBron James, 2020 LeBron James, and 2022 LeBron James. That's it, that's the one-man list. And even lowering the age bar to 32+ years old, the only additions would be 2021 Russell Westbrook, 2021 Steph Curry, and nobody else between 1996 Michael Jordan and 2017 LBJ.

Betting on Durant finishing 2023 into the top-15 players of the NBA would be reasonable to an extent. When available for the most part of a regular season, Durant has always finished inside the top-20 players of those years. He's a lock for that because, well, he's freaking Kevin Durant. But KD has not played more than 55 games in his two years in BK.

Are we sure Durant will top that figure next season? Are we sure he won't sit out games, force a trade, or cause trouble in the borough given all of the storylines flowing this past summer? There are too many risks involved in making this pick so early, so yeah, let me call KD an overvalued asset by fantasy GMs entering the fall season.

Undervalued: Khris Middleton, SF/PF (MIL) - ADP: 45.7

The only thing that could help explain Middleton's "low" ADP of 45 OVR is his potential missing of a few games to start the year as he recovers from injury/gets eased into the rotation by the Bucks. Other than that, Middleton is a lock for a top-45-or-higher finish: it's been five years in a row (and six out of the last seven) for Midd hitting a top-40 OVR finish at the very least and playing 62+ games.

Middleton's rock solid when it comes to availability, and Milwaukee is the perfect fit for him in those terms as his minutes have never topped 33 MPG since the 2018 season (36.4). While not the best per-minute performance, Middleton has posted figures of 1.11+ FP/min in four consecutive seasons and is coming off a second-best season with 1.16 FP/min last year.

Middleton is one of only six players with back-to-back-to-back 37+ FPPG seasons while playing fewer than 33 MPG along with Bam Adebayo, Chris Paul, Kristaps Porzingis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Rudy Gobert. Key name: Giannis. In other words: the Bucks' system works for everybody, and it's showing. Middleton, once fully available, is going to perform to the expectations and then some, is what I'm saying.

The Bucks have retained the same core of players, are bringing back Brook Lopez to eat minutes at the center position, and their biggest acquisition in SF Joe Ingles won't play until well into the 2023 calendar year--if at all before the postseason. Middleton will hit the ground running once he gets to the court, and even if he does so in a pitch limit, his per-minute efficiency is more than enough to help him keep his head above water.

Three years in a row hitting 57.6 or higher true shooting percentages, an expected bounceback three-point-shooting season after posting 41%+ in 2020 and 2021 (only 37.3% last year) and a per-game line of around 20-5-5-1 isn't out of the equation. Enough for another top-35 OVR finish.

Overvalued: Paul George, SF/PF (LAC) - ADP: 22.5

A lot of digital ink has been poured on laptop screens when it comes to Kawhi Leonard and his infamous "load management" throughout his career. Have you stopped for a minute to think about Paul George's missed time, though? George, he of the 12 years doing it as a pro, has not played even 55 games in a single season since he joined the Clippers back in 2020.

George played 81, 75, 79, and 77 games after his nightmarish 2015 six-game year, but he's now back to the shelves more often than not. George's production is sublime, mind you, with averages of at least 38+ FPPG in his three years with the Clips and an even better-looking 1.30, 1.26, and lastly, 1.33 FP/min marks on a per-minute/efficiency basis.

Playing time won't affect percentage cats such as George's shooting, but that might not even be necessary for him to hurt your team--or at least your expectations--a bit. The reason: PG13's true shooting cratered last season compared to years prior as the forward went from 58%+ in three consecutive years to "only" a 53.7 percent figure in the 2022 season with 42/35/85 shooting splits.

With another season comes another fresh start for George, who will be fully fit from the get-go. He will be sharing the floor with Kawhi, though, and John Wall is now also part of the Clippers rotation. That top-heavy context and environment can benefit George by taking eyes off him, but it'll also and inevitably cost him some touches and opportunities. Tame your expectations a bit, at the very least. George has finished outside of the top-35 OVR three years in a row.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts


Leonard Fournette17 mins ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Ryan McLeod36 mins ago

Delivers Three Assists Saturday
Evan Bouchard45 mins ago

Nets Two Goals In Saturday's Win
Mario Ferraro1 hour ago

Lands On Injured Reserve
Maxx Williams1 hour ago

Elevated To Active Roster
Evan Rodrigues1 hour ago

Will Miss 2-4 Weeks
Jonas Brodin1 hour ago

On Track To Return Sunday
Ryan Lindgren1 hour ago

Ends Productive Outing With Injury
Marquise Brown2 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Justise Winslow2 hours ago

Expected To Play On Sunday
Mike Conley2 hours ago

Will Miss Another One On Saturday
Dalano Banton2 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Dallas
Fred VanVleet3 hours ago

Returning Against Mavs
Yuta Watanabe3 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday
Chris Paul3 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday Evening
Alperen Sengun3 hours ago

Upgraded For Meeting With OKC
Logan Thompson3 hours ago

Expected To Start Saturday
Bruno Fernando3 hours ago

Out On Saturday
Josh Richardson3 hours ago

Remains Out Versus The Lakers
Keita Bates-Diop3 hours ago

Out On Saturday Night
Aleksander Barkov3 hours ago

Will Be A Game Time Saturday Due To Illness
Anthony Davis3 hours ago

Questionable Versus San Antonio
LeBron James4 hours ago

Probable For Rematch With Spurs
Alexandar Georgiev4 hours ago

Likely To Start Saturday
Justin Fields5 hours ago

Bears Could Hold Justin Fields Out To Avoid Long-Term Damage
Green Bay Packers5 hours ago

David Bakhtiari Questionable For Week 12
Odell Beckham Jr.5 hours ago

Not Expected To Play Until Late December
Ja'Marr Chase6 hours ago

Officially Out On Sunday
Deebo Samuel6 hours ago

Dealing With "Different" Hamstring Issue
David Krejci8 hours ago

Scores Twice In Bruins Win
Kirill Kaprizov8 hours ago

Extends Scoring Run With Two Points
Darcy Kuemper8 hours ago

Shuts Out Calgary
Lucas Raymond8 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Friday's Win
Nikita Kucherov8 hours ago

Racks Up Three Assists
Shea Theodore8 hours ago

Logs Two Assists Versus Seattle
Jason Robertson8 hours ago

Takes Over League Lead In Goals
Shake Milton11 hours ago

Goes Close To A Triple-Double
Jerami Grant11 hours ago

Explodes For Career-High 44 Points
Kevin Durant11 hours ago

Finishes A Losing Effort With 36 Points
Bam Adebayo11 hours ago

Scores Season-High 38 Points
Trae Young11 hours ago

Goes Off For Season-High 44 Points
Giannis Antetokounmpo11 hours ago

Can't Be Stopped By Cavs
Josh Giddey11 hours ago

Flirts With A Triple-Double
Brandon Ingram11 hours ago

Suffers A Toe Injury
Anthony Davis16 hours ago

Posts Double-Double On Friday
Carlos Santana22 hours ago

Pirates Agree With Carlos Santana On Friday
Demarcus Robinson1 day ago

Devin Duvernay, Demarcus Robinson Questionable
Rondale Moore1 day ago

Officially Out In Week 12
Raheem Mostert1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful Against Texans
Deebo Samuel1 day ago

Questionable To Face The Saints
Josh Jacobs1 day ago

Questionable To Play In Week 12
Mike Williams1 day ago

Ruled Out Against Cardinals
John Klingberg1 day ago

Considered Day-To-Day
TB1 day ago

Alex Barre-Boulet Gets A Look After Impressing In The AHL
Ross Colton1 day ago

Ready For Action Again
Kyle Okposo1 day ago

Returns From A Six-Game Absence
Yegor Chinakhov1 day ago

Returns For Columbus
Narciso Crook1 day ago

Red Sox Sign Narciso Crook To Minor-League Deal
Denyi Reyes1 day ago

Mets Sign Denyi Reyes
Kyle Allen1 day ago

Confirmed As Week 12 Starter
Kadarius Toney1 day ago

Chiefs Rule Out Kadarius Toney
Leonard Fournette1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful
Jerry Jeudy1 day ago

KJ Hamler Ruled Out For Week 12
Marquise Brown1 day ago

Cardinals Optimistic About Marquise Brown's Return
Kyler Murray1 day ago

Ready To Return Against Chargers
Greg Dortch1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision For Week 12
Milwaukee Brewers1 day ago

Blake Perkins Signs With Brewers
Elliot Soto1 day ago

Twins Re-Sign Elliot Soto
Los Angeles Angels1 day ago

Angels Sign Jacob Webb
Xander Bogaerts1 day ago

Padres Looking At Xander Bogaerts?
Brandon Nimmo1 day ago

Rays Among Teams Interested In Brandon Nimmo
Michael Conforto1 day ago

Cubs Considering Michael Conforto
Hoy Park2 days ago

Red Sox Acquire Hoy Park From Pirates
Chad Wallach3 days ago

Angels Re-Sign Chad Wallach
Cody Bellinger3 days ago

Rockies Interested In Cody Bellinger
Carlos Rodón3 days ago

Rangers Have Serious Interest In Carlos Rodon
Aaron Judge3 days ago

Giants Expected To Make Formal Offer To Aaron Judge
Bryce Harper3 days ago

Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Hoy Park3 days ago

Pirates Designate Hoy Park For Assignment
Joely Rodríguez3 days ago

Red Sox Sign Joely Rodriguez
Hunter Renfroe3 days ago

Brewers Acquire Janson Junk In Hunter Renfroe Trade
Brandon Nimmo4 days ago

Giants Interested In Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger
Trea Turner4 days ago

"Likely" Phillies' Top SS Target
Hunter Renfroe4 days ago

Angels Trade For Hunter Renfroe Tuesday
Ion Cutelaba5 days ago

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss In Main Event
Kennedy Nzechukwu5 days ago

Shines In Main Event Spotlight
Chase Sherman5 days ago

Escapes Finishing Loss And Makes It To Decision
Waldo Cortes-Acosta5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Andre Fialho5 days ago

Takes Second Loses In As Many Contests
Muslim Salikhov5 days ago

Returns To Winning Ways With TKO Stoppage
Danny Roberts5 days ago

Continues To Slide With First Round Loss