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Despite all the uncertainty in the sports world, the National Football League looks like it’s on track to start its 2020 season on time, meaning sports betting fans looking to wager are likely in luck. Sportsbooks will require a full 16-game schedule to be played in order for us to cash on any odds and lines.
Considering we’re not even up to the NFL preseason yet, the most logical bets to make right now are “futures”: how teams or individual players will perform over a full season. As opposed to weekly betting on game odds, lines, spread, etc., savvy sports bettors can gain a major edge/EV+/return on investment (ROI) by reading tea leaves far in advance. Get ahead of the market. Take chances!
One of the best ways to get a handle on the upcoming football season is to predict how many wins each NFL team will have.
Tips for Betting 2020 NFL Win Totals
Sportsbooks allow you to bet on how many wins each NFL team will have. They set an Over/Under, and you have to wager on what side of that number will happen. For example, if the Baltimore Ravens’ Over/Under is set at 11.5 wins, you have to wager on whether they’ll get 12 or more, or whether it’ll be 11 or fewer.
In addition to the O/U figure, each side is accompanied by a betting line, noting how likely the book thinks the win total is to happen. A line of -100 implies 50/50 odds. -110 means the item has an implied likelihood to happen of 52.38%. A successful bet of +101 or higher will mean your payout will be more than double your initial wager. For example, if you bet $5 on a +110 and hit, you win $5.50 on top of your initial $5, giving you a $10.50 payout. (For more reading on common betting terms, read this handy guide from DraftKings SportsBook.)
More often than not, the safest strategy for betting win totals is to lock in the Under, but sharp football handicappers and analysts can find flaws on the flip side if a team is being underappreciated. Some aggressive lines may rely too heavily on strength of schedule ratings that reflect last year’s standings. Generally, I try to balance "strength of schedule" rankings carefully: Relying on the previous year's results to forecast the upcoming season always comes with risk that blinds bettors to new trends.
2020 NFL Win Total Bets
Here are a few 2020 NFL win total bets that have caught my eye so far.
(Note: Odds and lines are current as of Monday, June 8, at 9 a.m. ET, on DraftKings SportsBook, FanDuel SportsBook, FoxBet, and BetMGM.)
New England Patriots: Under 8.5 Wins (+107), DraftKings
$10 bet pays $20.70
2019: 12-4
Tanking for Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields is a total Bill Belichick move. At the very least, Belichick likely wants to replicate – to some degree – the way he found success at quarterback with former franchise icon Tom Brady: Buy as low as possible and develop the next signal-caller into the system that’s proven successful.
I’ve had fleeting thoughts that New England could take a low-risk shot on Cam Newton, rehab him, and possibly gain a rehabbed monster for the next few years. However, considering it’s already June, the shrewd Belichick is expected to give Jarrett Stidham a trial with a bland Brian Hoyer in-season insurance policy. If that fails (it probably will), the Pats may position themselves to nab a new blue-chipper near the top of the 2021 draft board.
Though the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets should also struggle for a playoff spot, the Buffalo Bills are likely the AFC East favorites, especially with WR Stefon Diggs now in town to help Josh Allen. New England also travels to face the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Even with the talented defense and a likely run-first approach with several gifted backs, the major question under center and thin receiving corps behind 34-year-old Julian Edelman could prompt New England to take a gap year and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008 -- either by purposeful 2021 NFL Draft planning or by Stidham's ineptitude. (And don’t complain, Pats fans; you’ve enjoyed yourselves plenty the past decade.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 9.5 Wins (+110), FanDuel
$10 bet pays $21
2019 regular season: 7-9
Hype for Tompa Bay is understandable. Tom Brady gets an excellent group of receivers in Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and even longtime teammate Rob Gronkowski. Plus, the Bucs’ emerging defense finally has an offense that could sustain possessions (unlike Jameis Winston) and keep them fresh. A warm-weather home may help stave off further decline in Brady’s 43-year-old body.
Though they face the AFC West, including the Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs, they could pick on the other three squads. Road trips to the Las Vegas Raiders, Detroit Lions and New York Giants should still be friendly, and they at least get to host the tough Los Angeles Rams.
However, Brady must now adapt to a new scheme at an advanced age, and he was already losing some downfield potency in 2019. A Week 3 visit to the Denver Broncos could make or break this bet, but Brady is 8-9 overall in his career against Denver and would have to take extra care in the Mile High air.
The New Orleans Saints likely still rule the NFC South, and the Atlanta Falcons are also on the cusp of improving and could steal one of their two matchups with the Bucs.
This O/U is just high enough to support the logic that Tampa Bay will challenge for a playoff spot but slip up with an unexpected loss or two.
Philadelphia Eagles: Over 9.5 Wins (+110), DK
$10 bet pays $21
2019: 9-7
Getting Washington and the Giants twice always helps pad the Eagles' possible total, and they’ve had a great chance to at least split their annual pair with the Dallas Cowboys in recent seasons. While some of their 2020 NFC West and AFC North matchups present big obstacles, at least they’ll get the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals in there, and they can hang with the Los Angeles Rams.
Philadelphia restocked its secondary with CBs Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman, which could help them match up with the Cowboys’ loaded wideout corps, which just added rookie CeeDee Lamb. Philly also welcomes rookie WR Jalen Reagor and speedster Marquise Goodwin to help the aging DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery complement tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. When we add a possible star RB in Miles Sanders and a talented backfield receiver in Boston Scott, QB Carson Wentz will enjoy a wealth of options.
Behind an elite offensive line, an adept, offensive-minded head coach, and top-shelf personnel, the Eagles should at least be in the running to lock up the NFC East once again and remain built to keep pace with their tougher draws.
Green Bay Packers: Under 8.5 Wins (+113), DK
$10 bet pays $21
2019: 13-3
The books have hinted that a fall is coming after the Packers’ 13-win season; though a 5-win drop seems like a lot, DraftKings is at least offering a little breathing room to profit in case the Packers can’t repeat. Green Bay presumably addressed its future in the NFL Draft, eschewing much immediate help (aside from RB A.J. Dillon) and drafting QB Jordan Love -- despite likely having at least two more years left of Aaron Rodgers.
Aside from its annual trip to NFC North foes Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay faces some tough road assignments against the New Orleans Saints, the rebuilt Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the defending NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers, and the competent Indianapolis Colts. This doesn't account for hosting the talented Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans -- two run-powered clubs built to barrel through a run defense that has ranked 22nd and 23rd, respectively, in the two years with Mike Pettine coordinating the defense.
Though RB Aaron Jones is a game-breaker, Green Bay's questionable group of pass-catchers behind Davante Adams reinforces the idea that the Pack may struggle to keep pace in shootouts. Plus, those road games … Rodgers slipped when playing outside of Lambeau Field last year, being sacked 24 times (compared to 12 at home) and averaging 6.63 air yards per attempt (8.69 at home).
More NFL Win Total Bets to consider
- Las Vegas Raiders: Under 6.5 (+123), DK: Las Vegas made some intriguing moves for the long term (hello, Henry Ruggs III), but given their overall flaws, this feels like a gift.
- Detroit Lions: Under 6.5 (+115), FD & FoxBet: Same here. Dig the Lions’ offense for fantasy purposes, but the defense isn’t going to be saved by Jeff Okudah.
- Dallas Cowboys: Under 9.5 (+135), BetMGM: Dallas should hover around the seven-team playoff picture, but its schedule doesn’t have many holes, and their season always seems to tip with a loss to the Eagles.
- Los Angeles Chargers: Under 7.5 (+125), MGM: The uncertainty at quarterback negates the excitement over the defense.
- Seattle Seahawks: Over 9.5 (+120), FD: Following an 11-win 2019, the Seahawks again could reach double digits if they can steal an extra victory from a tough NFC West foe.
- Tennessee Titans: Under 8.5 (+110), DK: Ryan Tannehill is not a complete fluke, but fading his efficiency would be a good place to start for doubters of last year’s AFC runners-up.
Next week, I’ll share my favorite bets and specials for the NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl LV.
I was away from the fantasy sports and betting worlds for a bit. Thank you, RotoBaller, for welcoming me back with this opportunity. RotoBallers, I hope I can help with your sports bets and fantasy football questions!
Want to chat? Catch me on Twitter. Stay safe.
