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Kyle Bishop explains why Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Trevor Bauer is a fantasy baseball bust and overvalued draft target for the 2020 season.
Following an offseason that saw them add Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, and Wade Miley, the Reds are expected to be right in the thick of a wide-open race for the National League Central crown. The imported bats should provide a significant boost to a squad that finished 25th in the majors in runs scored a year ago, barely breaking the 700 mark. Yes, despite the deserved reputation of their home park as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the sport, Cincinnati's true strength last year was pitching - more specifically, the efforts of the starting rotation.
After struggling through his first full MLB season in 2018, Luis Castillo delivered on the promise he'd shown as a rookie with a 190-inning campaign in which he went 15-8, struck out 226 batters, and posted tidy ratios (3.40 ERA/1.14 WHIP). Sonny Gray, acquired in a trade before the season from the Yankees, rebounded from a tough stint in the Bronx with a 200 K season of his own and posted even better ratios than Castillo (2.87/1.08). Anthony DeSclafani stayed healthy and, despite issues with keeping the ball in the yard, put together a quality season. The team also received solid work from Tanner Roark before dealing him to Oakland at the trade deadline. Ultimately, the team finished in the top 10 in both ERA and FIP, and only two other clubs struck out batters at a higher clip.
One player who did not make positive contributions to those outcomes? Trevor Bauer, who came over from the other side of Ohio in a three-team deadline deal and promptly stunk up the joint for his new team. Despite continuing to pile up the strikeouts, Bauer's 10 starts in a Reds uniform yielded an unsightly 6.39 ERA and just two victories. Not great, Bob!
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A Disappointing Performance
Bauer arrived in Cincinnati with a winning record and respectable ratios (3.79/1.21) in spite of some control issues during the season's first half. His struggles in the Queen City led to a rise of nearly a full run in his ERA, culminating in a 4.48 mark that ranked 52nd out of 61 qualified starters and was more than double the 2.21 he produced in 2018. His FIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.14) were better, but the former still ranked in the bottom third.
Home runs were a major problem for the 29-year-old all season, but particularly in his time with the Reds. Bauer surrendered a career-worst 34 home runs in his 213 innings, with 12 of them coming in his 56 innings with Cincy. After posting a 46.8% ground ball rate and 32.3% fly-ball rate from 2016-18, Bauer's batted ball distribution essentially flipped in Cincinnati (34% GB, 44.7% FB), and was fairly even with Cleveland last season. Given the juiced ball and how friendly Great American Ball Park is to homers (it has never ranked outside the top 10, and typically lands in the top five), this combination of factors was predictably disastrous.
It certainly wasn't what fantasy owners were hoping for when they drafted Bauer last spring. His 2019 NFBC ADP was 32nd overall and ninth among starting pitchers.
Don't Expect 2018 Again
This spring, the community is understandably less bullish on Bauer. He's currently clocking in at an ADP of 81, placing him at SP22. That's a much more reasonable price for his services. Bauer is one of just 13 starters to average at least 180 innings during the past five seasons, and only seven SP have more strikeouts in that same span. In the current environment, especially with spring training injuries starting to pile up, volume has value - particularly when it comes paired with lots of Ks.
Still, it feels like many are justifying this price to themselves by citing not just the floor that results from those attributes, but are viewing Bauer's marvelous 2018 campaign as plausible upside. And that just doesn't track with reality:
| Season | ERA | WHIP | FIP | SIERA | BB/9 | HR/9 |
| 2019 | 4.48 | 1.25 | 4.34 | 4.14 | 3.46 | 1.44 |
| 2018 | 2.21 | 1.09 | 2.44 | 3.21 | 2.93 | 0.46 |
| 2017 | 4.19 | 1.37 | 3.88 | 3.80 | 3.06 | 1.28 |
| 2016 | 4.26 | 1.31 | 3.99 | 4.22 | 3.32 | 0.95 |
| 2015 | 4.55 | 1.31 | 4.33 | 4.20 | 4.04 | 1.18 |
| 2014 | 4.18 | 1.38 | 4.01 | 3.95 | 3.53 | 0.94 |
Bauer's 2018 performance screams outlier. As the table demonstrates, it's the only time he's ever finished a season with an ERA below 4.00 or a WHIP below 1.25. Apart from notching 17 wins in 2017, he's never won more than 12 games in a season. Sure, the strikeouts are nice, but 23 starters racked up 200 or more last season, a handful of whom are being drafted significantly later. I'll happily take Ramon Laureano, Joey Gallo, or Nelson Cruz instead of Bauer at pick 81 and then snag Lance Lynn (124) or Matt Boyd (166) from that group instead.
