RADIO
Justin Carter looks at under-the-radar wide receiver free agent signings to determine which of these WRs will be risers or fallers for 2021 fantasy football leagues.
There have been a lot of big-name signings so far in free agency, but what about some of the players who've flown below the radar? Guys who might not be stars, but could still be key contributors on their new teams and on your future fantasy teams.
Today, we'll be taking a look at some under-the-radar signings at wide receiver.
Are these players going to be fantasy risers in 2021? Or will their new digs find them struggling to make an impact?
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Emmanuel Sanders - Buffalo Bills
Emmanuel Sanders has been around a long time. He's 34. His last 1,000-yard season was in 2016.
But I'm tentatively high on Sanders as he joins the Bills. Why? Josh Allen.
Allen continues to get better, and while there are still underlying accuracy issues, he was sixth in deep attempts and fourth in air yards. He'll throw the ball all over the field.
If Sanders still has some of that speed he used to show, we could see a resurgence from him. He spent last year in New Orleans, a team that just didn't have the right quarterbacks to use the deep game. Sanders ended up just 92nd among wide receivers in average target distance, but he was first among receivers in true catch rate and still managed to get decent separation.
A healthy Sanders could average 50-60 yards per game and find the end zone five to seven times. That would be a successful season for someone at this stage of their career. At the same time, let's not ignore that Sanders has seen a drop in yards per game over the past two seasons and that he'll be competing for targets with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. I'll say repeat what I said earlier: I'm tentatively high on Sanders.
Conclusion: Riser? Sure, riser.
Keelan Cole Sr. - New York Jets
Corey Davis signing in New York got the most attention this offseason, but the team also brought in a solid veteran (he counts as one now, right?) to solidify the depth at the position.
One issue with Cole, though, is we have no idea which version of him the Jets are getting:
Per Pro Football Reference
Cole's first NFL season saw him look like an ascending receiver, but he hasn't bettered his yardage totals from that season since. He was a big-play guy then, averaging 17.8 yards per reception. 2018 and 2019 saw his role severely reduced though, including a drop in 2019 to just 22.6 yards per game.
But last year, Cole re-emerged in Jacksonville, seeing career highs in targets and receptions. He finished with 642 yards and five touchdowns, with his lowest yards per reception in his career as his usage shifted, leading the team in slot snaps with 654 of them.
In New York, Cole will compete with Jamison Crowder for slot snaps, assuming Crowder stays on this roster. With Corey Davis and Denzel Mims also looking for the ball and a quarterback situation that isn't great for pass-catchers, it's hard to see Cole really doing much in New York. He played 76 percent of Jacksonville's snaps last year; I don't see him getting close to that in 2021.
Conclusion: Faller
Andre Roberts/Alex Erickson/Donte Moncrief/ Chris Conley - Houston Texans
What is this team doing?
Houston let Will Fuller head to Miami and released Kenny Stills midseason, but they still have Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, and Keke Coutee. Roberts is probably the one guy I have some modicum of interest in here, but let's not belabor this section of the article. None of these guys are safe fantasy plays and none have a high enough ceiling to make them worth a lottery ticket late pick. Not to mention, we have no idea if Deshaun Watson, Tyrod Taylor, or someone else will be the starting QB in 2021.
Conclusion: Fallers, all of them!
Josh Reynolds - Tennessee Titans
This is probably one of my favorite underrated signings in the league.
Reynolds won't have much competition for a starting spot across from A.J. Brown, and the target situation in Tennessee is also cleared out a bit by the departure of Jonnu Smith. That leaves a lot of vacated targets.
Reynolds has been part of a crowded Rams receiving unit for the past four years, but last season, he started to see an increase in his usage, with 81 targets. He turned those into 52 catches for 618 yards and two touchdowns. Not the best numbers, but Reynolds almost has to be a riser because of this new situation. Tennessee had the fewest targets and second-lowest target rate to running backs last season, so he won't have to compete with a running back for targets.
Yes, that was also true in Los Angeles, but on the Rams, he was only the third option at receiver; by moving up to the second option, his outlook starts to look more like Corey Davis last year. I don't think Reynolds ends up as good as Davis was, but even if he gives you 80 percent of what Davis did, that's 787 yards and four touchdowns. Yes, I just picked out a random number, which is not a sound argument, and no, I'm not going to apologize for that, because it's actually kind of hard to make a great statistical case for Reynolds based on what he did in Los Angeles.
Anyway, he should be looking at better numbers in 2021.
Conclusion: Riser
John Brown - Las Vegas Raiders
This is interesting.
Brown's path to fantasy relevance in 2021 feels like it's not actually about John Brown, but rather it's about Henry Ruggs III's development.
Let's start with Brown, though. Last year, he played just nine games but averaged 50.9 yards per game while serving as the third option when he was healthy. He was targeted 52 times and averaged 13.9 yards per reception.
Theoretically, he's the third option on the Raiders and would be a low-end fantasy option, but that requires Ruggs to step up and be the one who fills Nelson Agholor's role. But in 13 games last year, Ruggs was targeted just 43 times, averaging 34.8 yards per game. The speedy rookie just didn't look ready to contribute in the NFL, and while he was second in the league in average target distance, he was only 43rd in deep targets because this team just didn't look for him like they were expected to. If Ruggs remains a limited threat who isn't used in the short passing game, then Brown's going to be a viable WR3 player with WR2 upside. This receiving unit is going to be a mess to predict.
Conclusion: I don't know!
Breshad Perriman/Tyrell Williams - Detroit Lions
Gone are Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones and in are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Do I love either of those guys as receivers? Not really -- they have their pros, but neither is a No. 1 guy.
But Detroit doesn't have a No. 1 guy, with likely means Perriman is going to be Jared Goff's main outside option. He should zoom past his career-high in targets (69 in Tampa in 2019) and has a ton of upside as a late-round fantasy pick. 2021 will be Perriman's best season.
As for Williams, he's seen 60-ish targets for three consecutive seasons. I don't think he gets close to the 119 targets he saw in San Diego in 2016, but 75 targets or so in an expanded role with the Lions is possible, which could mean something like 50 receptions for 725-750 yards? Those are fine numbers that make Williams a fun deep-league target.
Conclusion: Risers, but more so for Perriman than Williams
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