Which NFL Head Coaches Are On The Hot Seat Entering Week 8?

October 27, 2023

Tony ranks the top five head coaches in danger of being fired after the 2023 season. Which coaches are on the hot seat following Week 7?

According to Jeremy Fowler from ESPN, the "expectation" is that five or more coaches will be fired this offseason. From struggling franchises that cannot get off the ground to playoff contenders who haven't progressed to legitimate contenders, there are plenty of coaches who could be let go after the season.

Finding a quality leader for your franchise who is a great decision-maker and play-caller isn't easy, but it's perhaps the most crucial foundation for building a winning culture. Dan Campbell is a great recent example as he excels in all aspects of the job and has positioned his team well after a rough start.

With seasons not going exactly as planned, here are five coaches on the hot seat following Week 7.

5. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

Record With Team: 10-14, (3-4 in 2023)

For this fifth spot, all the NFC South coaches could be on the hot seat for various reasons. At present, Dennis Allen appears to be the most likely to be let go after the season. The Saints currently hold a 3-4 record for this season, with four losses in their last five games with the only win being against the Patriots.

Allen succeeded Sean Payton and likely landed the job due to his familiarity with the organization. This year, the Saints have excelled on Allen's defensive side, ranking fourth in EPA/play. However, their offense tells a different story, as it ranks just 21st overall in EPA/play.

The Saints' 2024 salary cap situation is the most challenging in the NFL, as they are $71 million over the cap for next season. With new quarterback Derek Carr not having a realistic out until 2025, the Saints' only real opportunity for change this offseason may come in the form of a new identity and a new coach.

4. Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

Record With Team: 25-31-1, (3-4 in 2023)

In the fourth year of his tenure with Washington, Ron Rivera has the Commanders at three wins through seven games, despite Vegas' preseason prediction of six and a half wins. They are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season, managing just seven points in a 14-7 defeat to the Giants.

The defense ranks in the bottom six in EPA/play, and the offense is 24th in that category. While they have secured three wins, those victories came against the Falcons, Broncos, and Cardinals, with losses to the Giants and Bears.

Sam Howell has performed adequately at times, but the Commanders are likely to look for a replacement in the upcoming draft, given its depth in quarterback talent. The organization might seek a fresh start with both a new coach and quarterback, as constant mediocrity might not be enough for Rivera to retain his job.

3. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders

Record With Team: 9-15, (3-4 in 2023)

The Las Vegas Raiders have managed to secure three wins in 2023, even though they lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for two of those games. Week 7, however, was not kind to them as they suffered a lopsided defeat on the road against undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent and the Bears. While Brian Hoyer had to start at quarterback for the Raiders, losing by 18 to a team of Chicago's caliber is unacceptable.

Moving on from Derek Carr only to find themselves in the Garoppolo situation is an intriguing move, especially since the Raiders are unlikely to make any changes until 2025 at the earliest due to Carr's dead cap hit. Star receiver Davante Adams has expressed his frustration throughout the season, and if mediocrity continues, it could push the franchise toward a complete rebuild.

Josh McDaniels inherited a franchise in a peculiar situation that had somehow won 10 games and made the playoffs but turned them into a six-win team in 2022. In 2023, their wins have come against the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots, making it improbable that they will return to anything close to 10 wins. With no changes expected at quarterback, upgrading the head coach might be the most significant step the Raiders can take.

2. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

Record With Team: 21-19, (2-4 in 2023)

While the other coaches on this list are grappling with mediocrity, Brandon Staley stands out as the only coach with a winning record in his tenure with the team. The Chargers posted a 10-7 record in 2022 and secured a postseason spot, although they were eliminated in the Wild Card round by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

To begin 2023, the Chargers have been remarkably underwhelming, sporting a 2-4 record despite the considerable talent on their roster. In 2023, the Chargers rank ninth in active cap spending, and they have consistently made significant moves each year to bolster their defense and ensure their offense can compete with the best. Surprisingly, given their personnel and the reason they hired Staley for his defensive expertise, they rank third-worst in defensive EPA/play.

Justin Herbert and the offense have been among the best units in the NFL since he was drafted. The new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, has elevated their performance, but the defense has been abysmal in supporting them. Unless they manage to turn the season around and secure a playoff victory, it's likely that Staley will be let go after the season.

1. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Record With Team: 5-19, (2-5 in 2023)

The Chicago Bears have nearly matched their win total from the previous year, but their victories this year have come against Brian Hoyer's Raiders and the Commanders. Justin Fields has had an inconsistent start, and there's a possibility that the Bears could undergo significant changes due to their substantial draft capital.

Currently, the Bears hold the first and third overall picks, with the first pick being the result of the Carolina Panthers' trade last year for Bryce Young. If Fields doesn't demonstrate enough to convince ownership that he's their franchise quarterback, it's possible that Matt Eberflus, Ryan Poles, and Fields could all be let go after the season.

The Bears have only won 10 games once in the last decade, with two first-round playoff exits. Acquiring the first pick to potentially select Caleb Williams would present an ideal opportunity for the organization to hit the reset button, bringing in a new coach and GM alongside a franchise quarterback. It would require a substantial turnaround this season for Eberflus to retain his job for the next season.

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