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Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em - Week 4 Matchups Analysis

Nick Chubb - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 4 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Week 3 featured a lot of disappointing performances with lower overall scoring totals. Some of these players will regress back to the mean while others will continue to struggle.

For those who are unfamiliar, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.

I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games plus the Monday Night Football game. There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that as well. Hopefully, you're lineup was filled with standout performers that led you to a victory, but don't worry if they let you down, it's a new week with another opportunity for a win. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.

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Matchups Analysis - 9:30am ET Game (London)

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Vikings -3.0
Implied Total: Vikings (23) vs. Saints (20)
Pace: Vikings (3rd) vs. Saints (7th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 7.3% Pass (15th), 20.9% Rush (3rd)
Saints Off. DVOA: -12.1% Pass (28th), -3.1% Rush (13th)
Vikings Def. DVOA:
12.5% Pass (20th), 13.5% Rush (31st)
Saints Def. DVOA: -3.1% Pass (11th), -4.2% Rush (18th)

Matchups We Love:

Saints WRs

Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry exited early with injuries, opening the door for Chris Olave to blow up. He did so to the tune of nine catches on 13 targets for 147 yards. Olave now holds a 26.1% target share, establishing himself as the lead receiver. He enters this matchup against a mediocre Minnesota defense as a top-24 option with additional upside if Landry or Thomas is out. Thomas himself is a top-36 play as well.

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)

Kamara resumed his lead back role accounting for 15 out of 20 (75%) of the running back carries and receiving seven targets. Unfortunately, he only caught two, and this is probably correlated with Landry and Thomas exiting, but the volume is reassuring. He should no longer be viewed as an elite top-10 back but still warrants a spot in your lineup against a poor Vikings run defense.

Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)

Cook suffered a shoulder injury against the Lions but is expected to suit while wearing an apparatus he wore last season when he dealt with a similar injury. It did not impact his production then so there is no reason to assume it will now. The Saints have a solid defense but are more vulnerable on the ground, favoring Cook, locking him into the top-12 in this matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)

Cousins continues to be an above-average NFL quarterback who can exploit easier matchups but struggles against difficult ones in fantasy. The offense as a whole was inept against the Eagles in Week 2, so with the Saints next up he's back outside the top-12 as a streamer.

Other Matchups:

Vikings WRs

Justin Jefferson is destroying fantasy managers after back-to-back letdowns, however, he's maintained a 25.7% target share adding six more against the Lions in Week 3. He's far too talented and explosive to leave out of your lineup so he's in of course, but his dip in production did result in a better game for Adam Thielen, who had six catches for 61 yards and a score. Thielen jumps back into consideration as a top-36 receiver with touchdown upside.

Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN)

Since returning to full health in Week 2, Smith Jr. has seven grabs for 68 yards and a touchdown. His numbers are not prolific but at the tight end position with his athleticism and opportunity to improve each week, he's a streaming candidate.

Injuries:

Dalvin Cook (shoulder)
Jarvis Landry (foot)
Michael Thomas (toe)

UPDATE: Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas have both been ruled out. Andy Dalton will take over for Winston, which is a downgrade for Olave and Landry, but with Thomas out there will be more targets available. Olave is still in the top-30 and Landry is a top-36 volume play.

UPDATE: Alvin Kamara has been ruled out, creating an opportunity for Mark Ingram to take over as a top-36 back.

 

Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Browns -1.5
Implied Total: Browns (24.5) vs. Falcons (23)
Pace: Browns () vs. Falcons (22nd)
Browns Off. DVOA: 42.7% Pass (6th), 21.8% Rush (2nd)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 28.2% Pass (9th), 11.2% Rush (8th)
Browns Def. DVOA:
13.5% Pass (21st), 8.4% Rush (26th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 19.4% Pass (24th), 10.8% Rush (27th)

Matchups We Love:

Browns RBs

The Browns are favored, the Falcons have a poor rush defense, and Cleveland leads the league in rushing attempts and rushing yards per game. This makes the combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both must-starts in this matchup.

Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)

Pitts finally had his breakout game and provided a collective sigh of relief to managers across the land who drafted him. He finished as the TE6 with the third-most yards and six-most receptions on the week, only missing the touchdown. The Browns passing defense hasn't been as strong this year, allowing big performances to the weaker offenses such as the Steelers and Jets. Pitts is right outside the elite two at the position.

Drake London (WR, ATL)

London has the fifth-highest PFF grade among receivers, the sixth-most yards per route run, and is currently the WR12 through three weeks. He's showing why he was selected as the first wideout off the board and deserves a spot in your lineup. The matchup, as described above, also adds fuel to the fire, making him a top-24 option.

Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)

Patterson returned to a heavy workload, accounting for 17 of the 24 (71%) running back carries. His dominance on the ground has been unexpected while he's been surprisingly uninvolved in the receiving game. It's unlikely he'll average 8.3 yards per carry again, and if the Falcons are trailing as expected he could see less work but he's still a top-24 back in this matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

Jacoby Brissett (QB, CLE)

Brissett has outperformed expectations, leading the Browns to a 2-1 record that should be 3-0. He also shined for fantasy this week, finishing as the QB9 although scoring at the position was down. While Atlanta is not a scary matchup, he's not someone who falls inside the top 15.

Marcus Mariota (QB, ATL)

Mariota found the end zone on the ground this week, which boosted his total but still left a lot to be desired for fantasy. Despite Pitts and London being great options, Mariota belongs on your bench.

Other Matchups:

Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)

Cooper now has consecutive 100-yard games with a score in each of them. He also has the 15th-most yards per route run, demonstrating his big-play ability. The low passing volume in this offense will make it difficult for him to sustain this production but the targets have been very concentrated between him and David Njoku. Add in the Atlanta defense on the other side of the ball and he's a top-30 receiver with upside.

David Njoku (TE, CLE)

For the same reasons outlined above, Njoku finds himself as a player to consider this week. He's only had the one useable game for fantasy so the trust level isn't there quite yet, making him a strong streaming option with top-10 upside.

Injuries:

Damien Williams (ribs)
Cordarrelle Patterson (knee)

UPDATE: Cordarrelle Patterson is active.

 

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Bills -3.0
Implied Total: Bills (27) vs. Ravens (24)
Pace: Bills (19th) vs. Ravens (25th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 50.5% Pass (5th), -41.1% Rush (32nd)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 79.0% Pass (1st), -11.8% Rush (19th)
Bills Def. DVOA:
-33.8% Pass (2nd), -30.2% Rush (5th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 4.0% Pass (15th), 4.0% Rush (23rd)

Matchups We Love:

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

The Baltimore defense has been getting torched by opposing quarterbacks, even Mac Jones passed for over 300 yards despite his injury. Allen is one of only three quarterbacks to finish inside the top 12 each of the first three weeks, cementing him as matchup-proof.

Bills WRs

Allen spread the ball around more than expected this week, featuring Isaiah McKenzie and Devin Singletary in addition to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. There's a high probability that this was an outlier situation because of the excessive volume (42 completions, 400 passing yards) and injury to Davis. You can expect Diggs and Davis to be the focal point in this matchup, both of which are great starts. McKenzie has flex appeal but possesses more risk.

Matchups We Hate:

Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)

Bateman continues to showcase his excellent talent, creating explosive plays as evidenced by the ninth-most yards after the catch. The problem that persists is volume, he was limited to four targets this week that he turned into two catches for 59 yards. Mark Andrews soaks up far too much volume and Bateman now faces the Buffalo defense. Bateman isn't a full bench but he's a fade in this matchup with a preference for other receivers.

Ravens RBs

J.K. Dobbins made his season debut with seven carries for 23 yards and two catches for 17 yards. Unfortunately, Justice Hill was also involved with six carries for 60 yards and received praise from the coaching staff afterward. The Bills have a stout rush defense, rendering them both unplayable.

Bills RBs

Singletary had a strange game with nine receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. For context, the backfield entered this week for 14 total receptions. None of the backs did much on the ground and although the matchup is favorable, trusting Singletary as more than a flex option with touchdown upside could prove foolish.

Other Matchups:

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

The Dolphins were able to get the win last week but Tua Tagovailoa struggled for fantasy. The Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position and still rank second in pass defense DVOA. Jackson is the QB1 on the year so he cannot be benched but expectations need to be lowered this week.

Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)

Much of what was discussed above applies to Andrews. The Bills have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position, placing Andrews in a similar position to Jackson.

Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)

Knox was also in on the sharing of targets, receiving four of his own, all of which he hauled in for 25 yards. The Ravens haven't been burnt as bad by tight ends, likely because their injuries were to their secondary, but the matchup and being attached to Allen keep Knox in contention as a streamer.

Injuries:

Gus Edwards (knee)

UPDATE: Dawson Knox and Gabe Davis are active.

 

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -3.0
Implied Total: Commanders (19) vs. Cowboys (22)
Pace: Commanders (13th) vs. Cowboys (10th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -11.6% Pass (27th), -24.8% Rush (25th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 4.3% Pass (17th), 16.2% Rush (4th)
Commanders Def. DVOA:
30.2% Pass (28th), -5.0% Rush (16th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -21.4% Pass (6th), -3.5% Rush (19th)

Matchups We Love:

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

Lamb came through in the fourth quarter with two beautiful catches, the second of which went for a touchdown. Michael Gallup was close to suiting up for this one and is expected to return this week but Noah Brown has been siphoning away targets already while leaving Lamb to take on the tougher defenders. Gallup returning could open up more opportunities for Lamb and help the offense sustain more drives. The Commanders is a plus matchup so Lamb slots in as a top-15 receiver.

Matchups We Hate:

Carson Wentz (QB, WAS)

The clock turned 12 and Wentz reverted back to his original form against the Eagles. This is not to say he will not have great games again, rather that strong defenses will be problematic moving forward. This is exactly what Dallas represents, which is why he is best avoided in this matchup.

Other Matchups:

Cowboys RBs

The Cowboys ran the ball 30 times compared to 31 passing attempts, which is an impressive ratio. This was in large part by design because it was very effective against the Giants. It led to an RB24 finish for Tony Pollard and an RB12 finish for Ezekiel Elliott, who found pay dirt, but neither was involved as a pass-catcher. The Commanders are susceptible through the air, pushing these two outside the top-24 as more top-36 options with an opportunity for a touchdown.

Commanders WRs

The trio of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson accounted for 63% of Wentz's attempts and 76% of his passing yards. The production was lower this week, resulting in a down game for Dotson and Samuel. McLaurin had his best outing of the season with six catches for 102 yards, re-establishing his role. McLaurin and Samuel are locked in for the most volume as top-36 receivers in a difficult matchup, leaving Dotson as a flex option.

Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)

Gibson saved his day with a score, ceding nine of the 10 running back targets to J.D. McKissic. Dallas has given up big games to Saquon Barkley and Leonard Fournette but shut down Joe Mixon. Gibson is talented but you can expect him to struggle more like Mixon did, making him a top-30 option.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

Schultz appears on track to play in this one but it will be just two weeks since his PCL injury. The matchup is favorable and the offense is lacking weapons but the injury adds some additional risk, pushing him outside the top-10 into the streamer category.

Injuries:

Brian Robinson (leg)
Dak Prescott (thumb)
Michael Gallup (knee)
Dalton Schultz (knee)

UPDATE: Michael Gallup has been removed from the injury report and is expected to make his season debut. As outlined above, this does not change the outlook for Lamb, and Gallup himself is a risky flex option in his first game back. It does remove Noah Brown from contention and lower the ceiling for Schultz.

 

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -4.0
Implied Total: Seahawks (22) vs. Lions (26)
Pace: Seahawks (21st) vs. Lions (5th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 27.3% Pass (11th), -19.5% Rush (22nd)
Lions Off. DVOA: 20.6% Pass (12th), 15.1% Rush (5th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA:
43.3% Pass (31st), -1.6% Rush (21st)
Lions Def. DVOA: 11.4% Pass (19th), 5.3% Rush (24th)

Matchups We Love:

Jared Goff (QB, DET)

The combination of the Detroit defense giving up points and the Lions' potent passing attack has worked out well for Goff. His performance against the Vikings was disappointing because he only threw one touchdown but the yardage was there and both should be there when they travel to Seattle. He has an exploitable matchup in a high over/under, propelling him into the top-12.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)

The streak finally ended, but six for 73 on nine targets is very good for a down game. He still has a 30.2% target share, ranks ninth in yards per route run, and has the 11th-highest PFF grade. He's a must-start in this matchup both because of his talent and the reasons described above for Goff.

Jamaal Williams (RB, DET)

The Lions have been running the ball efficiently and scoring on the ground weekly. With D'Andre Swift sidelined, Williams has a huge opportunity to step in as the lead back. He came in and dominated last week with over 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. He becomes an elite option, in a great offense, as the favorites against the Seahawks.

Matchups We Hate:

Seahawks RBs

Rashad Penny had his best rushing game of the year and finished as the RB30. The Seahawk's backs continue to share carries and the offense, which rarely scores, does so through the air. Regardless of another solid matchup, it's best to stay away from this backfield if at all possible.

Other Matchups:

T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)

Hockenson salvaged his day with a score, however, this is part of his intrigue. The Lions' passing attack is impressive and Hockenson is an integral piece of it. He's a top-12 tight end again in a plus matchup.

Seahawks WRs

In Week 3, the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett finally both brought fantasy managers joy in the same week. This provides optimism that an easier matchup with a higher over/under both can be valuable. Fortunately, this is the situation they find themselves in this week against the Lions, who've allowed seventh-most fantasy points to receivers. Both still have a strong chance to disappoint but are top-36 receivers.

Injuries:

D'Andre Swift (shoulder)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle)

UPDATE: D'Andre Swift has been ruled out as expected. Additionally, Amon-RA St. Brown and D.J. Chark have been ruled out, opening the door for Josh Reynolds as a flex option while creating more opportunities for Williams and Hockenson. This also lowers the ceiling of Goff but he remains a top-12 quarterback due to the matchup and remaining weapons.

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Spread: Chargers -5.5
Implied Total: Chargers (25) vs. Texans (19.5)
Pace: Chargers (6th) vs. Texans (14th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 27.8% Pass (10th), -33.2% Rush (31st)
Texans Off. DVOA: -14.5% Pass (29th), -26.8% Rush (28th)
Chargers Def. DVOA:
9.3% Pass (18th), -15.3% Rush (11th)
Texans Def. DVOA: -11.5% Pass (9th), 13.2% Rush (30th)

Matchups We Love:

None

Matchups We Hate:

Davis Mills (QB, HOU)

Mills struggled again last week when facing the Bears and now gets the Chargers defense. He's off the radar until he demonstrates he can take that next step as a passer.

Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU)

Pierce capitalized on a superb matchup, on a rainy day, against a team the Texans competed with from start to finish. None of these factors project to be the case this week. Additionally, Rex Burkhead remains involved as a pass-catcher, limiting his ceiling. He'll still get a solid workload, keeping him as a top-30 back but is unlikely to make much of an impact for fantasy without a touchdown.

Other Matchups:

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

Herbert received a pain injection to be able to suit up last week, indicating he was certainly still battling the rib injury. The Jaguars are a legitimate defense but the injury cannot be ignored. This resulted in by far the worst passer rating of the season and a poor game for fantasy. The rib injury and surprisingly competent Texans passing defense drop him outside the top-five in this matchup.

Chargers WRs

Joshua Palmer took advantage of Keenan Allen sitting out once again, leading the receiving corps in targets and yards. Mike Williams managed a touchdown on his lone reception in an otherwise poor outing. The Chargers should have better offensive output in this matchup although they're likely to be leading late in the game. Williams and Palmer are both startable, with the edge to Williams as a top-30 play while Palmer is inside the top-36.

Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)

Ekeler finished with a mere four carries, thankfully he hauled in all eight of his targets for 48 yards. Sony Michel actually had one more carry than Ekeler but as a team, they rushed the ball just 12 times. The other problem is Michel and Joshua Kelley each have one attempt inside the 10-yard line while Ekeler has yet to have one. The matchup and point spread are favorable for their rushing attack, the concern is that he hasn't been contributing much on the ground. He remains a top-15 back but is no longer locked in as an elite top-10 option.

Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)

Cooks has steady volume with an elite target share of 26.7% but rarely makes big plays with only 12 yards per reception, limiting his ceiling. As a result, he has more value in a full-PPR format but still slots in as a top-30 receiver in half-PPR because of his role and the mediocre matchup.

Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)

As mentioned above, Allen was held out again with a hamstring but this time it did not correlate with a big day for Everett. He still had six targets behind only Palmer and Ekeler, which is challenging to find from a tight end. He has the seventh-most yards per route run at the position and the 10th-highest PFF grade. He's a top-10 option in this matchup.

Injuries:

Keenan Allen (hamstring)

UPDATE: Keenan Allen was ruled out as expected, everything mentioned above remans accurate.

 

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -3.5
Implied Total: Titans (19.75) vs. Colts (23.25)
Pace: Titans (31st) vs. Colts (11th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 29.6% Pass (8th), -25.3% Rush (27th)
Colts Off. DVOA: -29.6% Pass (31st), -24.1% Rush (24th)
Titans Def. DVOA:
24.6% Pass (26th), -2.7% Rush (20th)
Colts Def. DVOA:
28.7% Pass (27th), -40.9% Rush (2nd)

Matchups We Love:

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)

Pittman Jr. returned to action against the Chiefs and immediately contributed with eight receptions for 72 yards. He's 19th in yards per route run and has the 14th-highest PFF grade. He also has a 25.6% target share even though he missed a game, indicative of the extent of his role. The Titans continue to get beat by opposing receivers with Mack Hollins as the latest culprit last week. Pittman Jr. returns to must-start status now that he's healthy.

Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)

Taylor was more involved in the receiving game this week with five targets, which led to 91 scrimmage yards. He's accounted for 85.8% of the carries and 97.2% of the yards, the most of any back. As referenced above, the passing attack is how most teams have approached Tennessee's defense but they aren't much better on the ground, and we know Taylor is the engine that makes the Colts go.

Matchups We Hate:

Titans WRs

Robert Woods returned to the top of the pecking order this week while Treylon Burks had a down game with only two targets. The passing volume in this offense remains very low and the distribution of targets changes from week to week, making it difficult to trust these receivers. Until Burks breaks out, it's best to look elsewhere.

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)

Henry finally put it all together for a massive day with 20 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, adding five catches for 58 yards as the RB3. The matchup was great, enabling the Titans to not only keep up but actually get their first win of the season. The Colts are much more difficult on the ground so you can expect a dip in production this week. That said, the game should be close enough for them to run the ball, making Henry a top-15 back.

Other Matchups:

Matt Ryan (QB, IND)

Ryan looked much better in their victory over the Chiefs, although for fantasy his 222 passing yards and two touchdowns were merely average. The Titans are a plus matchup but there are plenty of quarterbacks with more upside this week.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)

Tannehill had an okay passing day and ran one in on the ground at the goal-line to boost his fantasy total. Just like Ryan, the Colts are a plus matchup but there are plenty of quarterbacks with more upside this week.

Injuries:

None

 

Chicago Bears at New York Giants

Spread: Giants -3.0
Implied Total: Bears (18.25) vs. Giants (21.25)
Pace: Bears (27th) vs. Giants (12th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -47.4% Pass (32nd), 12.8% Rush (6th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -8.3% Pass (25th), 5.5% Rush (11th)
Bears Def. DVOA:
-6.9% Pass (10th), 0.6% Rush (22nd)
Giants Def. DVOA: 20.5% Pass (25th), 11.5% Rush (28th)

Matchups We Love:

Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI)

David Montgomery left last week's contest early, allowing Herbert to step in and have an enormous day. Herbert rushed the ball 20 times for 157 yards and two touchdowns. While the matchup is a little bit more difficult and that level of output is rare, he'll have the entire backfield to himself, making him a top-15 back with tons of upside.

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)

The Giants were wise and continued to feed Barkley the ball well into the fourth quarter, leading to a 36-yard touchdown run. He's another true workhorse back, who has accounted for 88.9% of the carries and 90.4% of the rushing yards. Chicago was gashed by Pierce last week, setting Barkley up for another big game.

Matchups We Hate:

Bears Passing Attack

The Bears attempted only 17 passes in a victory, yes that's right, victory over the Texans. There is no reason to believe this is changing and thus no reason to start Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, or Cole Kmet.

Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)

Jones showed off his dual-threat ability against the Cowboys, rushing the ball nine times for 79 yards. Unfortunately, his passing statistics were subpar, keeping him outside the top-20 at the position last week, which is where he'll be again this week when he faces another tough defense.

Giants WRs

Just when it looked like Sterling Sherpard could be trusted as their No. 1 receiver, he suffered a season-ending knee injury. It's sad to see, especially considering he just overcame an Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. We're now back to avoiding Giants receivers until someone else can emerge. Richie James is probably the best bet if you're set on playing someone from this receiving corps but he's a risky option.

Other Matchups:

None

Injuries:

Sterling Shepard (knee)
Wan'Dale Robinson (knee)
Kadarius Toney (hamstring)
David Montgomery (knee)
Velus Jones Jr. (hamstring)

UPDATE: David Montgomery, Kadarius Toney, and Wan'Dale Robinson have all been ruled out as expected, making everything outlined above still accurate. Velus Jones Jr. will make his season debut but is remains a player to avoid.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -6.5
Implied Total: Jaguars (19.25) vs. Eagles (25.75)
Pace: Jaguars (26th) vs. Eagles (8th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 56.7% Pass (2nd), -11.3% Rush (18th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 53.0% Pass (4th), 7.0% Rush (10th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA:
-16.5% Pass (7th), -42.0% Rush (1st)
Eagles Def. DVOA: -31.1% Pass (3rd), 8.1% Rush (25th)

Matchups We Love:

James Robinson (RB, JAX)

Robinson has completely conquered his Achilles injury, regaining his strength and durability. Furthermore, he's the only running back to finish inside the top 12 each of the first three weeks, demonstrating his consistency. The Eagles are one of the league's best defenses but are much more susceptible on the ground, which is exactly the way this team likes to win games. Robinson is a top-15 option in this matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)

Lawrence is starting to live up to the highly touted prospect he was entering the 2021 draft. He led the Jaguars to a great win over the Chargers on his way to a QB3 performance. From one difficult matchup to another, he now gets the Eagles who have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks despite facing productive quarterbacks in all three of their games. Lawrence doesn't have to be benched but there are likely better options available for most managers.

Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)

Sanders struggled to get much going against the Commanders, turning his 15 carries into only 46 yards. He's accounted for 71.3% of the carries and 78.7% of the rushing yards, locking him in as their workhorse back but he only has one touchdown in three games. Much like last season, Jalen Hurts and Boston Scott is stealing away rushing touchdowns, lowering his ceiling. The Jaguars have the best rush defense DVOA in the NFL, dropping Sanders outside the top-24 this week.

Other Matchups:

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)

Hurts has been the QB7, QB4, and QB2 over the first three weeks. He has the second-highest PFF grade with the third-most fantasy points over expectation among quarterbacks. Jacksonville has a solid defense but Hurts has all the talent to overcome it, making him a top-five option in this matchup.

Eagles WRs

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the WR7 and WR20 as one of the league's top duos. After a slow start for Smith, he's blown up over the past two weeks, proving both can in fact co-exist. Much like Hurts, the matchup is more difficult but they are too good to fade, keeping them in the top-20.

Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)

Goedert and Andrews are the only tight ends to finish inside the top-12 each of the first three weeks. Obviously, Goedert is nowhere near the caliber of Andrews but the point remains he's been very consistent as the No. 3 receiving option in this offense. He'll be a top-10 play again in this matchup.

Christian Kirk (WR, JAX)

Kirk has 100 yards or a touchdown in each of their first three games, plus a 23.6% target share. He has the 11th-most yards per route run and 13th-most yards after the catch. The matchup is very difficult but we have seen other receivers perform well against the Eagles. He's a volume-based top-24 receiver in this matchup.

Injuries:

Boston Scott (rib)
Zay Jones (ankle)

UPDATE: Zay Jones has been ruled out, it is best not to move to Marvin Jones Jr as a flex play given the difficult matchup.

UPDATE: Boston Scott is out, providing a boost to Sanders and making Kenneth Gainwell a flex option.

 

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -3.5
Implied Total: Jets (19) vs. Steelers (22.5)
Pace: Jets (1st) vs. Steelers (2nd)
Jets Off. DVOA: -4.3% Pass (23rd), -10.2% Rush (17th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 0.6% Pass (21st), 2.8% Rush (12th)
Jets Def. DVOA:
47.9% Pass (32nd), -10.5% Rush (12th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -0.4% Pass (12th), -4.7% Rush (17th)

Matchups We Love:

Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)

Johnson was the lone bright spot in the Steelers' passing attack against the Browns. He now has 10-plus targets and 50-plus yards in each of their three games. George Pickens made an incredible sideline catch, totaling three grabs for 39 yards. Chase Claypool also had a line of three for 35. Until one of them emerges as the clear-cut No. 2 option, it's difficult to start either, leaving Johnson as the one reliable option. Add in a great matchup with the Jets' pass defense, and he's a top-24 receiver.

Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)

Freiermuth has seen a decline in both targets and receptions each week, creating a concerning trend that may indicative of Pickens overtaking him. The matchup is fantastic so there will be plenty of opportunity for a big game, which keeps him on the radar as a streamer.

Matchups We Hate:

Jets WRs

Everything is pointing to the debut of Zach Wilson in this matchup, which means instability for the offense and receiving corps. It's possible Wilson is every bit as competent as Joe Flacco, possibly even better but he's yet to prove he can support any of the Jets receivers. The trio of Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis is an upgrade from what he was working with last season, so he may be better for fantasy himself but that does not mean Wilson will sustain the success he's had thus far. Wilson is the receiver to play but he's a risky flex option given the difficult matchup.

Jets RBs

The Jets are currently leading the NFL in passing attempts, which has included the fourth-highest target share to running backs. This has equated to 42 targets to their backfield thus far, which is part of what has supported the production Breece Hall and Michael Carter has had. Wilson did not target the backfield very often in 2021, creating an expected decrease. Furthermore, these two are still splitting work and face a top-half Pittsburgh rush defense. Both are risky flex options in this matchup.

Other Matchups:

Najee Harris (RB, PIT)

Harris has underwhelmed over three weeks based on expectations, producing 176 scrimmage yards and one touchdown total. Additionally, he's currently on pace for 57 receptions this season, compared to 74 last year. He was inefficient on the ground in 2021 but his involvement in the receiving game combined with 10 total touchdowns led to a big year. Harris is best viewed as a top-20 back moving forward, particularly in this matchup because the Jets are tougher to against the run than the pass.

Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ)

Conklin has quietly produced as the TE4 on the year with seven or more targets and 40-plus yards or a touchdown in all three games. Despite a more difficult matchup and the quarterback transition, he's earned consideration as a streamer with upside based on his target share of 17.2%.

Injuries:

None

 

Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers -1.5
Implied Total: Cardinals (20.5) vs. Panthers (23)
Pace: Cardinals (4th) vs. Panthers (9th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -5.1% Pass (24th), -5.8% Rush (16th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -22.9% Pass (30th), 7.3% Rush (9th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA:
39.4% Pass (30th), -10.0% Rush (14th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 6.3% Pass (17th), -10.3% Rush (13th)

Matchups We Love:

Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)

Brown exploded with 14 receptions for 140 yards against the Rams. The yards per catch were not great but the volume is elite. With several members of the receiving corps either ruled out or questionable for this matchup, Brown should see a massive target share again. Carolina's pass defense is solid including Jaycee Horn but his volume keeps him inside the top-24 in this matchup.

Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)

Ertz had a bit of a down game but still finished as the TE15, and his 10 targets were tied for second-most at the position. Ertz has a high target share as a top-two option in a high-volume passing attack, landing him inside the top-12 again in this matchup.

DJ Moore (WR, CAR)

Moore cannot seem to establish a connection with Baker Mayfield, resulting in touchdown or bust type performances. The matchup is very good for the passing attack, instilling a small glimmer of hope he has a big week. He's a top-30 receiver until he proves he deserves to be in the top 24 again.

Matchups We Hate:

Baker Mayfield (QB, CAR)

The matchup actually lends itself to a successful outing for Mayfield, however, he's yet to demonstrate he can command the offense and produce for fantasy, so he's still a player to avoid.

Other Matchups:

Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)

McCaffrey now has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, unfortunately, he's been unable to find the end zone and remains minimally involved as a pass-catcher. The Cardinals' defense is mediocre on the ground but very vulnerable through the air, which is how Carolina would project to approach this matchup. Obviously, McCaffrey is still in your lineup but his elite top-five ceiling is quickly fading.

James Conner (RB, ARI)

Unlike in 2021, Conner hasn't scored touchdowns at a high rate and his rushing totals are much lower. He's still averaging five targets per game but the team consistently falls behind because of their poor secondary, forcing them to air out. Carolina has an average rush defense but the Cardinals are underdogs in this matchup and missing receivers, making Conner a top-24 back.

Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)

Murray finished outside the top-12 for the first time this season, mostly because he didn't have a passing touchdown and only carried the ball twice for eight yards. He continues to operate without a full complement of weapons, relying on Brown, Ertz, and Greg Dortch. The Panthers' defense is middle of the pack overall and better against quarterbacks, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points. Murray is still a top-12 play because of his rushing upside.

Injuries:

Rondale Moore (hamstring)
A.J. Green (knee)
Christian McCaffrey (thigh)
Marquise Brown (foot)

UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey is active.

UPDATE: Rondale Moore will make his season debut, which helps Murray and adds Moore as a flex option.

 

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -9.5
Implied Total: Patriots (15.25) vs. Packers (24.75)
Pace: Patriots (23rd) vs. Packers (32nd)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -3.1% Pass (22nd), 24.5% Rush (1st)
Packers Off. DVOA: 19.3% Pass (13th), 11.3% Rush (7th)
Patriots Def. DVOA:
5.9% Pass (16th), 12.0% Rush (29th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 0.4% Pass (13th), 14.0% Rush (32nd)

Matchups We Love:

Packers RBs

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon had a difficult matchup last week, limiting their production. Fortunately, the Patriots are much easier to run on, plus the Packers are heavy favorites, likely resulting in lots of carries late in the game. They're both great options in this matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

Patriots WRs

Losing Mac Jones is not good news for this passing attack. They were already struggling as a whole, although one of the receivers usually performed each week. Brian Hoyer is a veteran backup but with him at the helm, they all become players to avoid.

Other Matchups:

Patriots RBs

Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson both found pay dirt last week and find themselves in a great matchup against the Green Bay defense. The concern is the inability of the offense to move the ball and create scoring opportunities, along with the possibility they have to abandon the running game if they fall too far behind. They remain inside the top 30 but have more volatility than usual.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 255 yards in a game or surpass two touchdowns. His lackluster receiving corps and the talented duo of running backs have led to a reliance on their rushing attack. The matchup isn't scary but their running game should generate more than enough production to win, which lowers his ceiling, making him a top-15 option.

Packers WRs

Allen Lazard has showcased his red zone prowess with a touchdown in both weeks. Meanwhile, Romeo Doubs took full advantage of the injuries to other receivers, breaking out with eight catches for 73 yards and a score. The two will battle for the top spot again this week, making them each an intriguing flex play in an alright matchup.

Injuries:

Mac Jones (ankle)
Ty Montgomery (ankle)
Jakobi Meyers (knee)
Sammy Watkins (hamstring)
Christian Watson (hamstring)

UPDATE: Mac Jones was ruled out as expected, meaning Brian Hoyer will get the start.

UPDATE: Jakobi Meyers was ruled out. There's still not a Patriots wide receiver to trust.

 

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -2.5
Implied Total: Broncos (21.5) vs. Raiders (24)
Pace: Broncos (24th) vs. Raiders (16th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 10.5% Pass (14th), -18.3% Rush (21st)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 3.0% Pass (20th), -21.5% Rush (23rd)
Broncos Def. DVOA:
-25.9% Pass (4th), -21.6% Rush (8th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 17.0% Pass (23rd), -6.5% Rush (15th)

Matchups We Love:

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Jerry Jeudy returned to action but only played on 59% of snaps against the 49ers. Even with a higher snap count, Sutton has cemented himself as the alpha in the offense. He has the eighth-most yards per route run and 15th-highest PFF grade. He's a top-15 option in a favorable matchup even though the Raiders secondary has some talented players. Jeudy is also inside the top 30.

Matchups We Hate:

Derek Carr (QB, LV)

Despite the Raiders dropping to 0-3, Carr was great for fantasy for last week. Unfortunately, he now faces a stout Denver defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. He's outside the top 15 this week with better options likely available.

Davante Adams (WR, LV)

Adams's ability to find the end zone is as good as any receiver in the NFL, he's scored in each of their three games. Unfortunately, he's only produced seven catches for 48 yards over the past two weeks. On top of that, he takes on a very difficult Broncos secondary featuring Patrick Surtain II. He's too talented to bench but might be touchdown-dependent again in this matchup.

Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)

Jacobs received three times more targets than he had entering last week's contest, turning them into five receptions for 31 yards. He consistently hovers around 60 rushing yards so the receiving work was sufficient for an RB18 finish. The Broncos' defense is much harder to run on and the over/under is very low, reducing the excitement for Jacobs, and pushing him outside the top 24.

Other Matchups:

Darren Waller (TE, LV)

Waller also struggled with low yardage totals, mostly because Mack Hollins blew for 158 yards of his own. Waller is still 10th in yards per route run with the 13th-highest PFF grade, making him a must-start despite the unfavorable matchup.

Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)

Wilson has been shockingly disappointing for fantasy thus far, causing many fantasy managers to consider cutting him for another option at the position. The matchup is very positive, the Raiders have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. It's a divisional matchup with a relatively low over/under but Wilson has some upside as a risky streaming option.

Broncos RBs

Melvin Gordon seems to be leveling the imbalance in the timeshare with Javonte Williams. He had only three fewer carries and actually had one more target last week. This is problematic for Williams, who dealt with this situation all of last year. The offense is also struggling immensely, limiting the red zone opportunities for both backs. Williams is still the better back to start but Gordon is also worth consideration, making both top-30 options in this matchup.

Injuries:

Hunter Renfrow (concussion)

 

Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Chiefs -1.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (22.25) vs. Buccaneers (23.25)
Pace: Chiefs (18th) vs. Buccaneers (15th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 41.2% Pass (7th), -31.2% Rush (29th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 4.0% Pass (18th), -25.1% Rush (26th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA:
0.6% Pass (14th), -28.4% Rush (6th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -43.1% Pass (1st), -17.4% Rush (10th)

Matchups We Love:

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

All three of Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage are dealing with injuries although any or all of them could participate. Regardless, Evans will remain the lead receiver, at least until Godwin is fully healthy and integrated back into the offense. He's the primary receiver and faces an average Chiefs pass defense, making him a top-12 option.

Matchups We Hate:

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Mahomes opened the season as the No. 1 overall QB but has finished outside the top-12 since. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are a very tough matchup, boasting the top pass defense according to DVOA while allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. It's unlikely you have the ability to bench Mahomes for a better option but he's likely to finish outside the top 10 this week.

Tom Brady (QB, TB)

Brady has also struggled for fantasy, although he's played behind an injured offensive line and been missing receivers each and every week. The hope is he gets back one or more of those receivers this week but Kansas City has been a challenge for quarterbacks, pushing Brady outside the top 15.

Chiefs WRs

The rotation of successful weeks and distribution of targets continues in this receiving corps. JuJu Smith-Schuster is still the No. 1 but Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman aren't far behind. In a difficult matchup, with limited scoring opportunities, all three are a fade. Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling are worth a flex play.

Other Matchups:

Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)

As expected, Fournette had a tough outing against the Packers, thankfully he received enough targets to boost his final output. Kansas is next up, which could mean another uphill battle for Fournette. He may not find much success on the ground but his involvement in the receiving game keeps him inside the top 12.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

Edwards-Helaire continues to lose work on the ground, relying on his pass-catching ability more than ever. He turned seven carries into zero yards but caught all five targets for 39 yards. He's becoming increasingly risky to depend on, making him a top-30 back with a lower floor in this challenging matchup.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Facing the No. 1 passing defense matters for almost all players but Kelce is one of only two matchup-proof tight ends, keeping him inside the top-five this week.

Injuries:

Chris Godwin (hamstring)
Julio Jones (knee)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (abdomen)
Russell Gage (hamstring)

UPDATE: Chirs Godwin and Julio Jones are both active. Both have top-36 potential but carry additional risk in their first game back from injury. Evans remains an elite option and the additional weapons move Brady into the top-15 with top-10 upside in a possible shootout.

 

Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -1.5
Implied Total: Rams (20.75) vs. 49ers (22.25)
Pace: Rams (20th) vs. 49ers (29th)
Rams Off. DVOA: 5.2% Pass (16th), -3.2% Rush (14th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 3.9% Pass (19th), -16.2% Rush (20th)
Rams Def. DVOA:
16.4% Pass (22nd), -30.6% Rush (4th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -24.7% Pass (5th), -32.6% Rush (3rd)

Matchups We Love:

George Kittle (TE, SF)

Kittle played 91% of snaps in his season debut, commanding five targets. With a full week of practice, he should be able to produce with a higher target share. He's a top-10 tight end.

Matchups We Hate:

Rams RBs

Cam Akers took another step towards a workhorse role, accounting for 12 of the 16 (75%) running back carries, and also found the end zone. Unfortunately, he now enters a divisional battle with a very strong San Francisco rush defense. Darrell Henderson is still taking away carries, limiting his ceiling, rendering him a top-30 back with touchdown upside.

Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF)

Wilson Jr. is clearly the lead back but still has to contend with Deebo Samuel in the backfield. He was over 100 scrimmage yards again last week with 12 carries and three receptions. Los Angeles has an elite rush defense with the third-highest DVOA and third-fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. He receives enough volume to keep him inside the top-30 despite the matchup.

Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)

Stafford was unable to exploit the Arizona pass defense, throwing for only 249 yards with no touchdowns. The 49ers are a more difficult matchup, causing Stafford to fall outside the top 12.

Other Matchups:

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

Kupp had a strange performance, doing his damage on a 20-yard touchdown run while being limited to only four catches for 44 yards. The matchup is less than ideal but he's one of the few players that can overcome it.

49ers WRs

Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk both received eight targets against the Broncos. It was Kittle's first game back so it's hard to assess how much work he'll receive moving forward, and the Rams do have Jalen Ramsey at cornerback but Samuel is a top-15 receiver because of his hybrid role while Aiyuk is a top-36 play.

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)

Higbee produced another satisfactory game with four grabs for 61 yards. He's averaging five receptions per game, keeping him inside the top-12 at the position.

Injuries:

Van Jefferson (knee)
Elijah Mitchell (knee)
Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle)



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