December 26, 2015

Ed Gorelik analyzes Week 16 playoff sleepers available as fantasy football waiver wire pickups & adds for the fantasy championships. These NFL RBs, WRs, TEs and QBs are fantasy football sleepers.

Playoff Waiver Wire Adds for Week Sixteen Championships

Week 15 of the NFL season ends with the Cardinals putting a beating on the Philadelphia Eagles without the help of long time Eagle-killer Larry Fitzgerald.

Week 15 also saw Cam Newton continue to stuff the MVP ballot box, David Johnson and Danny Woodhead put up over 18 of their teams points this weekend, a return to a dominance for Amari Cooper, and top scoring weeks from late-round tight ends like Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker.

Below are some waiver wire pickups and sleepers for Week 16 who can have a potential impact for your teams. My piece won't cover all waiver wire adds and targets each week, as there are just too many with all the league types out there, but I'll be highlighting and prioritizing the biggest impact players. Additionally, be sure to check out many more great RotoBaller articles and waiver wire analysis pieces at each position throughout the week, including risers/fallers, deeper league sleepers, rankings and more.

Week 16 Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ)

49% Owned on Fleaflicker

Despite the weak game against the Cowboys, Fitzpatrick still likely sits at the top of this week's reliable QBs. His next game (and final game for many of you) comes against the Patriots at home, a team he's already had 20 points against on the road before the Jets made the playbook easier for him. Fitzpatrick should have a solid floor this upcoming week with a two-touchdown performance looming.

Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS)

36% Owned on Fleaflicker

Cousins put up a great game against the Bills at home, who up until this point had only allowed one game of more than 15 points to QBs when on the road. Even Tom Brady and Fitzpatrick, who've both had great seasons with great weapons, weren't able to do that. Cousin's final week is going to come as a road game against the horrific defense of the Eagles that's allowed the 6th most points to QBs this year. Cousins hasn't been great when traveling this year, but that might have to do with the difficult schedule he's dealt with and the lack of weaponry for most of the year. Expect a strong floor in Week 16.

Other Quarterback Options: 

• BUF QB Tyrod Taylor - 49% owned - Tyrod's the king of garbage time stats this year, and that's great for fantasy owners. He'll be seeing the Cowboys at home for championship weekend, where he's actually been worse in fantasy than on the road.
• TB QB Jameis Winston - 50% owned - Winston hasn't been able to hit QB1 area in weeks, but presents a good floor against the Bears at home.
• DEN QB Brock Osweiler - 28% owned - Assuming he still starts, Osweiler's championship game will be at home against the Bengals, a tough defense. Just as it has been the rest of the year though, when you play with this much talent around you there's always the chance you put up a lot of points.

More Options: Johnny Manziel, Case Keenum

Week 16 Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups

Tim Hightower (RB, NO)

41% owned on Fleaflicker

Yet to play at time of writing, unless Hightower is benched or injured he likely holds the most value in this RB backfield. Despite facing a rough championship matchup against the Jaguars in Week 16, at least it's at home where the Saints have been far better this year. He's still a viable FLEX/low-end RB2 for the championship weekend, and is still sitting on the waiver wires of nearly 60% of fantasy leagues.

James White (RB, NE)

51% Owned on Fleaflicker

James White is the far more valuable half of this backfield, even with the Patriots signing Steven Jackson and his role is likely to remain unchanged for the remaining fantasy playoffs. He's owned in just over half of all leagues - but wherever he's still available, he's a FLEX in championship weekend against the Jets. After White and Hightower, your options for this week are iffy.

Christine Michael (RB, SEA)

17% Owned on Fleaflicker

Michael has been the fantasy football world's answer to memes like the next Frank Ocean album and Half Life 3. Everyone has spent nearly two or three years waiting for him to have a significant impact in a regular season game. Well, we saw that flash of impact this weekend as he put together 16 carries for 84 yards. The Seahawks have yet to mention either of Michael or Bryce Brown as their starting running back for next week's matchup against the Rams, and are still saying that they're "committed to a hot hand approach". But it should be assumed that Michael will get the first chance to show his worth after outplaying Brown last week.

Donald Brown (RB, SD)

3% Owned on Fleaflicker

These next RBs all carry significant playing time risk, so they're going to be ranked by who's the most likely to get touches. Donald Brown heads the list now that Melvin Gordon is out for the rest of the year - and lucky for him, he gets to face the Raiders average defense this week. However, he has to do it on a Thursday Night, on the road, and with Danny Woodhead also taking valuable red zone snaps. He's a low ceiling, low floor option for Championship weekend.

Karlos Williams (RB, BUF)

46% Owned on Fleaflicker

Since being kept out of the end zone in Week 11, Williams hasn't been able to accrue any fantasy value. Dealing with injuries and low yardage, he's going to be trying to bounce back against the Cowboys. LeSean McCoy's injury should be keeping him out of the Bills remaining games this year, and Williams should get most of that work.

Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ)

32% Owned on Fleaflicker

As a Jets fan, it's so weird seeing this team having so many viable fantasy players in one season. Powell's been seeing an increased role in the offense since returning from injury, and has shown up every time with at least one touchdown in each of the last three weeks. He may not be a guarantee for 10 touches, but at least the touches he gets in the passing game seem to go for chunks of yardage at a time. Powell's a decent FLEX play with a very low floor versus the Patriots.

Cameron Artis-Payne (RB, CAR)

10% Owned on Fleaflicker

Cameron Artis-Payne's value will be entirely dependent on whether or not Jonathan Stewart is good to go this week. At the time of this writing, there's still no news on his status. CAP led the Panthers in touches against the Giants, working as a passing back and rusher, and should be holding onto that role if Stewart misses another game.

Other Running Back Options: 

• MIA RB Jay Ajayi - 29% owned - Miller suffered a "reported" quad injury that may keep him out or limited this weekend. Ajayi has a chance to put together another solid performance if he starts in his place. Even if Miller plays, Ajayi might still be in line for touches based on how badly Miami has misused Miller this year.
• TEN RB Antonio Andrews - 43% owned - Andrews is seeing the ball just about 14 times a game, but that's more than most people on this part of the list. He hasn't done particularly great with the carries he's had this season and has a tough schedule coming up. He's a fill-in if you're in need.
• BUF RB Mike Gillislee - 1% owned - Gillislee seems more likely to play behind Williams than ahead of him, but whatever news comes out this week could change that.
• SEA RB Bryce Brown - 25% owned - Just like Gillislee, news can change about who starts on this team this weekend.
• DET RB Theo Riddick - 29% owned - Riddick's just an every week feature here at this point, continuing to show PPR value even in weeks where his yardage is weak. He's a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues, and should be owned in all of them.
• DAL RB Robert Turbin - 20% owned - Turbin operates as the backup behind perennially injured Darren McFadden. He's worth handcuffing if you're a McFadden owner and have a Week 17 championship.
• NE RB Brandon Bolden - 27% owned - Bolden had the most touches of any New England running back after Blount went down, but seems like mostly a floor play since he gets taken out in the red zone.

More Options: Jonathan Grimes, Zurlon Tipton, Chris Polk, Juwan Thompson

Week 16 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups

Kamar Aiken (WR, BAL)

39% Owned on Fleaflicker

At this point, Aiken is going to head up the available WRs. He's seen at least seven targets a game since Week 9, including four games with double digit targets. He's reeled in at least five catches in each of those games, and only really faltered once in standard scoring. He's a very reliable FLEX option seeing plenty of targets.

Ted Ginn Jr. (WR, CAR)

49% Owned on Fleaflicker

This season has just been completely ridiculous in terms of has-beens or no-names coming into fantasy relevance. Ginn now has at least 20 points in each of the last three weeks as Cam Newton has been on a roll. Ginn is still unreliable, due to his propensity for drops and lack of consistency as a player but that upside he holds is making him a risky FLEX play that could dagger your opponent if he just gets that one big catch.

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)

28% Owned on Fleaflicker

Along with Ginn, Lockett has finally found his role in the offense and has seen seven targets in three games straight. Although St. Louis has been very good at stopping WRs this season, Russell Wilson has been playing otherworldly football and the Rams defense will be at home. Lockett, just like Ginn, seems like a risky FLEX that can be a game winner if he catches one of the deep balls he's targeted with.

Markus Wheaton (WR, PIT)

45% Owned on Fleaflicker

Wheaton has also found a real role in the Pittsburgh offense, and that role gets used often whenever one of Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant are being blanketed. Wheaton's a decent FLEX play on a very good offense playing against a very bad defense, but has a far lower floor than guys like Lockett and Ginn.

Rueben Randle (WR, NYG)

52% Owned on Fleaflicker

Odell Beckham's impending suspension in Week 16 will put Randle at the forefront of the Giants offense, as he faces an average Vikings team that is very injured. Randle should be in line for as many as 10 targets this weekend, if not more unless vintage Hakeem Nicks somehow shows up but that's a risk many people will be willing to take.

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, TEN)

39% Owned on Fleaflicker

Mettenberger's aggressive mindset might be exactly what gives Green-Beckham a real chance at putting up back-to-back 100 yard games. In the fantasy championships, it's a huge risk to start a rookie that's mostly struggled this year but some fantasy owners may be dealing with enough injuries to be desperate.

Marvin Jones (WR, CIN)

58% Owned on Fleaflicker

Jones would be far higher on this list if the news on A.J. Green made it seem like he was going to miss next week, but currently there is nothing of the sort out there. If Green is missing, Jones would head right to the top as the best mix of floor/ceiling in place of A.J. Green for the championships.

Other Wide Receiver Options: 

• BAL WR Jeremy Butler - 1% owned - A personal favorite, Butler's a guy I compare to a mini-Brandon Marshall. He's nowhere near as valuable but his role has been growing in this offense every week, and the team does what it can to give him the opportunity to be in space and get YAC. He's a PPR option, mainly.
• CAR WR Devin Funchess - 25% owned - Funchess has shown to be more touchdown dependent than reliable. It's likely that he's not seeing realistic value this year for most people, but still might be able to find some in deeper leagues.
• MIA WR DeVante Parker - 25% owned - Parker might have seen his name in the above section if it weren't for the Dolphins being significantly bad in most of their offensive outings at home. He's not worth trusting in the fantasy playoffs, unless you're in need.
• NE WR Keshawn Martin - 4% owned - With Edelman potentially out, and Amendola likely out, Martin has a chance to show some value against the Jets this weekend. It's a really, really low chance - but it's a chance.

More Options: Nelson Agholor, Kenny Stills, Josh Huff, Dwayne Harris

Week 16 Tight End Waiver Wire Pickups

Zach Miller (TE, CHI)

26% owned on Fleaflicker

With Martellus Bennett gone and the possibility of Alshon Jeffery missing from Week 16, Miller seems like he's in line for 10 targets as the next most reliable vertical target on this offense. Miller presents a solid floor as a high-end TE2 in Week 16, and brings the potential of a top 10 TE week with the volume he's in line to get.

Will Tye (TE, NYG)

8% owned on Fleaflicker

Reuben Randle might not be the only one seeing an increase in targets this week. Will Tye's been one of Eli Manning's more consistent pass catchers in the last four weeks, and his fantasy production has shown it as he's not dipped below seven points in that span. The loss of OBJ will put the burden to produce on players like Tye, and he might actually be able to.

Other Tight End Options: 

• TB TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins - 55% owned - ASJ has shown that his Week 1 outburst was an outlier this year as he's been a touchdown dependent, low yardage TE. It shouldn't be expected that it changes next week, but he's still a startable, although unreliable, TE.
• PHI TE Zach Ertz - 36% owned - I don't think anyone's going to like the idea of starting Zach Ertz in their championship matchup, but the option is there if you need it. Ertz has seen just around seven points a week the last three weeks, and faces a very beatable Redskins coverage.

More Options: Coby Fleener, Jared Cook, Maxx Williams

Week 16 Defense (D/ST) Waiver Wire Pickups

Detroit Lions - 55% Owned

Tennessee Titans - 16% Owned

At time of writing, Brian Hoyer's status for Week 16 is uncertain.

These are two teams at home. Two teams that haven't been good defenses all season long. Two teams facing backup QBs. Either of these has the chance to put up a big game against their opponent, but both have some big risks too. The Lions are likely the safer group, with talent like Ziggy Ansah and Darius Slay - but the Titans may be playing against Brandon Weeden this week. I'd go with the Lions myself, but with 55% ownership, that luxury may not be available to everyone.

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