RADIO
Welcome, RotoBaller family, to my first-ever article for the site! Football is in the air, Week 1 is here, and the DFS lineup building has officially commenced. How should we attack this 13-game slate that features a handful of dome games and four games with Vegas totals above 48?
Let me preface this by saying that I’ve experimented with both large-field and small-field DFS tournaments in recent seasons — using both an optimizer and hand-building. I’ve started to lean into more small-field, lower buy-in, single-entry/3-max contests (anywhere from $5 to maybe $20-30). I’m no DFS shark by any means, but I’ve taken my fair share of losses to ultimately build up my knowledge of the NFL DFS game. I’m still searching for that elusive four-plus-figure win (i.e. $1,000 or more), but I have a decent amount of three-figure wins on my résumé. Hopefully, this piece can help you think a little more thoughtfully about lineup building throughout this NFL DFS season, and we can experience some success together.
Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back & possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons to whom they'll be throwing. So without further ado, let’s get after it!
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High-priced stack (DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes ($7700) + Travis Kelce ($6600)
It’s not rocket science to recommend the league’s best quarterback with the league’s best tight end for your DFS lineup. You’ll certainly need to pony up to roster this duo ($14,300 in combined salary), but Chiefs-Cardinals is setting up to be quite the barn burner. Sporting a 53.5 Vegas total, and featuring two teams that finished top seven in situation-neutral pace last season (K.C. - third, Arizona - seventh), this game could resemble a track meet. Those are the types of games we are looking to target on DraftKings, as the point-per-reception format rewards high-volume games.
With plenty of plays expected, it’s not farfetched to project Travis Kelce for double-digit targets (and possibly catches) in this contest. New addition JuJu Smith-Schuster has been dealing with a sore knee, so Mahomes could lean on Kelce even more in this game. And we all know about the soon-to-be 33-year-old’s red-zone prowess, as he caught 14-of-16 targets in the red area last season for seven touchdowns.
Preferred bring-back: Marquise Brown ($6200)
Leverage piece: Skyy Moore ($3800)
Kansas City’s starting 2-WR set on opening day will likely be Smith-Schuster with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. But the aforementioned JuJu has been banged up, which might lead to more playing time for the speedy Moore (4.41 forty) out of Western Michigan. The Mahomes-to-Kelce connection will be popular, but adding a cheap receiver like Moore into your stack could help you differentiate if he gets loose for a long ball. Along with that, the majority of Mahomes’ fantasy production is done from the pocket. When rostering a pocket passer, stacking him with two or more of his options is recommended. Moore’s price tag also creates flexibility for the rest of your lineup.
High-priced stack (FanDuel)
Jalen Hurts ($8000) + A.J. Brown ($7100)
The A.J. Brown trade took the league by storm. Leaving Tennessee for Philadelphia, there are some that believe Brown could struggle with Jalen Hurts as his quarterback. I’m not a huge fan of the move from a season-long fantasy perspective, but Week 1 is setting up quite nicely for this duo.
Heading to Detroit for an indoor game, against a much-improved Lions team loaded with offensive talent, there is reason for optimism surrounding this contest. Philadelphia is favored by four points, so oddsmakers believe they should have some success in this spot. Judging by Detroit’s defensive incompetence last year (29th in total yards allowed and 24th in passing yards allowed per game), I’m leaning into that assumption as well.
Though Dan Campbell’s squad added Aidan Hutchinson at No. 2 overall in the NFL Draft, that doesn’t hide the fact that Jeff Okudah and Amani Oruwariye should be no match for the elite playmaking of Brown. Detroit tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed in 2021 with 31. Expect at least two or three play-action deep shots from Hurts to his talented new weapon on the outside. If they are lucky enough to connect on one or two, you’re cookin’.
Preferred bring-back: D’Andre Swift ($7600)
Leverage piece: Quez Watkins ($5200)
He’s certainly more of a large-field play than small-field, but Quez Watkins is the type of player who could get loose for a long ball in a dome environment. If you’re looking for an under-the-radar, all-or-nothing type of play, Watkins is your guy. You’ll strike out more often than not here, but he’s the type of high-variance player you want for GPPs.
Mid-priced stack (DraftKings)
Tua Tagovailoa ($5700) + Tyreek Hill ($6800) OR Jaylen Waddle ($6400)
With a middling total (46.5), and some ambiguity surrounding both of these teams (especially Miami), this Patriots-Dolphins game could certainly surprise DFS players in Week 1. Retooled with new weapons on offense (Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Cedrick Wilson, etc.) and a more progressive coach in Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins are poised for stronger offensive output than in years past. Combining that notion with New England’s underrated ability to score points — most would be surprised to hear that the Pats ranked sixth in points per game (27.2) a season ago — a myriad of points is not out of the realm of possibility in this AFC East matchup.
Being cognizant of players’ salaries is key when constructing DFS lineups. You might have noticed that I recommended Tyreek Hill OR Jaylen Waddle when stacking with Tua — not both. The reason for this is that their price points are both top 10 at the WR position on this slate. It’s highly unlikely that at $6800 and $6400, they are both going to hit a ceiling outcome in the same game. Figure out which receiver you prefer and stack them with Miami’s signal-caller.
This is a relatively cheap stack compared to the rest of the options on the slate, for a game that has sneaky shootout potential. Former Patriots star cornerback J.C. Jackson now plays for the Chargers, and the Pats released Kyle Van Noy after 2021. We’ll see if they can still be a top defense, but they’ll be up against it in Week 1 against a high-powered Miami offense.
Preferred bring-back: Kendrick Bourne ($4200)
Leverage piece: Chase Edmonds ($5200)
Nobody truly knows how Miami’s offense is going to function this season. But Chase Edmonds could be utilized more than the market thinks, as he was given a two-year, $12.1 million contract this offseason. His skill set is conducive to PPR scoring, and if he’s the one scoring touchdowns instead of the passing game, he could be strong leverage off of Tua stacks. He’s the 34th RB listed on DK in terms of pricing. His role will likely not match that price point.
Mid-priced stack (FanDuel)
Jameis Winston ($6700) + Alvin Kamara ($8700) AND/OR Michael Thomas ($6200)
Embracing another uncertain situation, New Orleans is sticking out like a team to target on FanDuel. Jameis Winston is the 20th quarterback listed on FanDuel for Week 1, even though Atlanta ranked tied for 29th in points per game allowed (27.0) and 26th in total yards allowed per game a season ago. It remains to be seen whether Alvin Kamara will be as prominent within the passing game in 2022 as he has been in the past, but the Saints will certainly put up some points on the lowly Falcons.
Michael Thomas’ price tag is also fairly depressed, and positive reports have been flowing in all preseason about the former fantasy superstar. Would it really surprise any of us if Thomas put the league back on notice with a 100-yard, 2-TD performance to start the season?
Though the total of this game is low (42.5), I’m of the opinion that Atlanta is being undervalued offensively. They were a bottom-seven unit a season ago, scoring just 18.4 points per game, but the additions of Marcus Mariota, Drake London, Bryan Edwards, and others make this team intriguing from a DFS perspective. With New Orleans favored by 5.5 here, the Dirty Birds could be chasing for much of this game — allowing London or Kyle Pitts to rack up fantasy points in the second half.
Preferred bring-back: Kyle Pitts ($6000)
Leverage piece: Chris Olave ($5000)
No team had fewer sacks than the Atlanta Falcons last season (18). Rookie Chris Olave is a talented receiver who has shown the ability to get loose for deep completions, as evidenced by his 1,436 intended air yards last season at Ohio State (19th in the nation, Sports Info Solutions). If Jameis is able to stay comfortable within the pocket — with Atlanta’s weak pass rush, that is very likely — Olave could break free for a long score and prove to be vital for DFS success in Week 1. Plus he’s extremely cheap.
Low-priced stack (DraftKings)
Daniel Jones ($5000) + Saquon Barkley ($6100) AND Wan’Dale Robinson ($3000)
No team was mispriced on DraftKings more in Week 1 than the New York Giants. With Brian Daboll taking command of the ship, the G-Men could actually be competent this season offensively. However, the pricing here does not reflect that. If the Giants are going to contend in this game, it will be on the backs of Jones and Barkley; that is why I’m not against stacking them together at these price points. Daboll is bringing over his pass-centric ways from Buffalo, so Saquon could rack up a handful of receptions on top of what he does on the ground.
Wan’Dale Robinson makes for an interesting DK receiving option just based on his price alone. $3K is the absolute minimum price for a receiver on the site, and he should be a part of the game plan considering he’s locked into the starting slot receiver role. Along with that, Kadarius Toney ($4100) is dealing with a leg injury but is expected to play. This could force more volume toward Robinson.
Tennessee is favored heavily in this game, but New York has a chance to pull off the upset straight up. Outside of Derrick Henry, the Titans are lacking offensive playmakers. Additionally, Mike Vrabel’s squad just lost pass rusher, Harold Landry, for the year to an ACL injury.
Preferred bring-back: Robert Woods ($5600)
Leverage piece: Kadarius Toney ($4100)
Dealing with a leg injury, Toney is a shaky play heading into the opening weekend. However, one thing I’ve learned from my previous years of NFL DFS play is this: Injury tags significantly affect ownership. When scrolling through potential options for our lineups, those Q tags can really scare us away. But if a team is rolling a player out there who has been dealing with an injury — especially a younger player — that is the prime time to take a chance on them in tournaments, because a team likely wouldn’t do that if they didn’t believe they were healthy. The 23-year-old Toney has slate-breaking upside and is criminally underpriced. If he’s ultimately active, embrace the uncertainty.
Low-priced stack (FanDuel)
Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett ($6400) + Diontae Johnson ($6700) AND/OR George Pickens ($5200)
Pittsburgh’s Week 1 opponent, divisional foe Cincinnati, scored 27 or more points in 9-of-17 contests last season. The Bengals are favored by 6.5 points in Week 1, meaning the Steelers will likely be playing catch-up for much of the afternoon. Though we don’t know who will start at QB for Mike Tomlin’s team, that will be announced prior to Sunday. Whoever that ultimately is will be busy early and often in Week 1, and their stable of weapons on the outside is talented enough to make plays against Cincy’s defense.
Diontae Johnson averages 75.2 yards and has scored three touchdowns in five career games against the Bengals. George Pickens will be making his NFL debut, but the talented rookie should be heavily involved in Pittsburgh’s plan after winning the WR2 job. Zac Taylor’s defense surrendered 248.4 passing yards per game in 2021, which ranked 26th in the league. Whenever the Bengals strike on the scoreboard, the Steelers should be able to respond.
Preferred bring-back: Joe Mixon ($8300, with the assumption CIN is winning and PIT is chasing)
Leverage piece: Pat Freiermuth ($5300)
He’s not the sexiest fantasy football player on the planet, but Pat Freiermuth has a nose for the end zone. He hauled in seven touchdown receptions in 16 games during his rookie season, and he managed to catch one in each of his matchups with the Bengals a year ago. Only Diontae Johnson (21) trumped Freiermuth’s amount of red-zone targets (20) for Pittsburgh. On FanDuel, we’re searching for touchdowns, and that’s what the 23-year-old tight end does best. He could be overlooked at the position.
Alright. That does it for my Week 1 analysis. Good luck this weekend! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here — @thejacksonkane.
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