Updated May Rankings and Tiers: Outfield (OF)

by Kyle Bishop 5/17/17 6:06 AM Follow Kyle

The comedian Lewis Black has a fantastic bit about the dumbest thing he’s ever heard in his life. After relaying the thing in question, he cautions the audience, “Don’t think about that sentence for more than three minutes, or blood will shoot out your nose.” This is more or less how it felt trying to make heads or tails of 2017’s weird and wild first month and produce updated rankings. It’s why, unlike my esteemed colleague Nick Mariano, I went only 300 players deep as opposed to 500. Had I pressed on, it might have broken my brain.

All of which is to say, if you disagree strongly with any particular ranking, know that there’s a decent chance you could talk me into adjusting mine. The sheer number of injuries and surprise performances (in both directions) made putting this update together a stiff challenge. Nick finished up the infield with a look at shortstop yesterday, so today we'll be talking outfielders.

You can find our full, updated rankings here. Note that they’re based on a standard 12-teamer, so you should make adjustment based on your specific league settings. Tiers, auction values, prospects, news and more. It's all free.

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2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield (May Updates)

Ranking	Tier	Player	Position	Kyle	Nick	Composite
1	1	Mike Trout	OF	1	1	1
2	1	Bryce Harper	OF	4	2	3
3	1	Kris Bryant	3B/OF	2	7	4.5
4	2	Mookie Betts	OF	6	3	4.5
5	2	Trea Turner	2B/OF	14	9	11.5
6	2	A.J. Pollock	OF	24	11	17.5
7	2	Charlie Blackmon	OF	27	18	22.5
8	2	Nelson Cruz	OF	26	21	23.5
9	2	Ryan Braun	OF	22	28	25
10	2	George Springer	OF	33	25	29
11	2	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	30	31	30.5
12	3	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	25	39	32
13	3	J.D. Martinez	OF	29	37	33
14	3	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	39	41	40
15	3	Khris Davis	OF	40	44	42
16	3	Christian Yelich	OF	43	45	44
17	3	Justin Upton	OF	53	64	58.5
18	3	Kyle Schwarber	C/OF	42	77	59.5
19	3	Aaron Judge	OF	70	54	62
20	3	Jose Ramirez	3B/OF	80	46	63
21	3	Matt Kemp	OF	83	50	66.5
22	4	Ian Desmond	OF	88	51	69.5
23	4	Gregory Polanco	OF	73	78	75.5
24	4	Adam Jones	OF	82	84	83
25	4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	68	119	93.5
26	4	Marcell Ozuna	OF	76	112	94
27	4	Stephen Piscotty	OF	91	104	97.5
28	4	Odubel Herrera	OF	78	118	98
29	4	Michael Brantley	OF	136	73	104.5
30	5	Billy Hamilton	OF	109	114	111.5
31	5	Andrew Benintendi	OF	132	103	117.5
32	5	Mark Trumbo	OF	151	90	120.5
33	5	Lorenzo Cain	OF	119	126	122.5
34	5	Chris Owings	SS/OF	79	168	123.5
35	5	David Dahl	OF	111	156	133.5
36	5	Adam Duvall	OF	140	129	134.5
37	5	Joc Pederson	OF	112	166	139
38	5	Ben Zobrist	2B/OF	138	143	140.5
39	5	Jackie Bradley	OF	115	180	147.5
40	5	Matt Holliday	1B/OF	173	124	148.5
41	5	Jose Bautista	OF	105	198	151.5
42	5	Domingo Santana	OF	160	146	153
43	6	David Peralta	OF	135	172	153.5
44	6	Nomar Mazara	OF	152	164	158
45	6	Dexter Fowler	OF	133	192	162.5
46	6	Kole Calhoun	OF	130	195	162.5
47	6	Jay Bruce	OF	194	137	165.5
48	6	Carlos Beltran	OF	153	194	173.5
49	6	Yasmany Tomas	OF	205	147	176
50	6	Corey Dickerson	OF	187	167	177
51	6	Michael Conforto	OF	155	202	178.5
52	6	Mitch Haniger	OF	217	142	179.5
53	6	Kevin Kiermaier	OF	218	158	188
54	6	Carlos Gomez	OF	199	187	193
55	7	Hunter Pence	OF	179	223	201
56	7	Randal Grichuk	OF	197	211	204
57	7	Ender Inciarte	OF	189	229	209
58	7	Steven Souza	OF	167	279	223
59	7	Scott Schebler	OF	215	235	225
60	7	Jose Peraza	SS/OF	202	258	230
61	7	Melky Cabrera	OF	227	239	233
62	7	Keon Broxton	OF	228	248	238
63	7	Jason Heyward	OF	238	242	240
64	7	Brandon Drury	3B/OF	242	238	240
65	7	Rajai Davis	OF	258	224	241
66	7	Hunter Renfroe	OF	254	241	247.5
67	7	Brett Gardner	OF	255	244	249.5
68	7	Manuel Margot	OF	175	325	250
69	8	Jayson Werth	OF	213	288	250.5
70	8	Max Kepler	OF	225	280	252.5
71	8	Starling Marte	OF	177	334	255.5
72	8	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	280	234	257
73	8	Kevin Pillar	OF	#N/A	261	261
74	8	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	240	290	265
75	8	Joshua Bell	1B/OF	266	#N/A	266
76	8	Byron Buxton	OF	300	233	266.5
77	8	Yasiel Puig	OF	239	311	275
78	8	Aaron Altherr	OF	253	308	280.5
79	8	Curtis Granderson	OF	229	337	283
80	8	Brandon Moss	OF	292	291	291.5
81	8	Gerardo Parra	OF	293	295	294
82	8	Jarrod Dyson	OF	281	314	297.5
83	8	Avisail Garcia	OF	#N/A	301	301
84	8	Robbie Grossman	OF	#N/A	309	309
85	8	Hernan Perez	3B/OF	243	378	310.5
86	9	Josh Reddick	OF	278	349	313.5
87	9	Jorge Soler	OF	#N/A	335	335
88	9	Alex Gordon	OF	277	401	339
89	9	Nick Markakis	OF	#N/A	339	339
90	9	Cameron Maybin	OF	#N/A	366	366
91	9	Steve Pearce	1B/2B/OF	#N/A	371	371
92	9	Danny Valencia	1B/3B/OF	#N/A	374	374
93	9	Denard Span	OF	#N/A	377	377
94	9	Michael Saunders	OF	#N/A	385	385
95	9	Seth Smith	OF	#N/A	387	387
96	9	Andrew Toles	OF	#N/A	388	388
97	9	Delino DeShields	OF	#N/A	389	389
98	9	Travis Jankowski	OF	#N/A	390	390
99	9	Lonnie Chisenhall	OF	#N/A	392	392
100	9	Enrique Hernandez	OF	#N/A	395	395
101	9	Jon Jay	OF	#N/A	396	396
102	9	Ben Revere	OF	#N/A	408	408
103	9	Leonys Martin	OF	#N/A	412	412
104	9	Tyler Naquin	OF	#N/A	413	413
105	10	Roman Quinn	OF	#N/A	416	416
106	10	Mallex Smith	OF	#N/A	417	417
107	10	Alex Dickerson	OF	#N/A	423	423
108	10	Brett Eibner	OF	#N/A	424	424
109	10	Trayce Thompson	OF	#N/A	428	428
110	10	Colby Rasmus	OF	#N/A	432	432
111	10	Brandon Nimmo	OF	#N/A	434	434
112	10	Brandon Guyer	OF	#N/A	435	435
113	10	Melvin Upton Jr.	OF	#N/A	437	437
114	10	Hyun-soo Kim	OF	#N/A	446	446
115	10	Jefry Marte	1B/OF	#N/A	449	449
116	10	Jeremy Hazelbaker	OF	#N/A	453	453
117	10	Abraham Almonte	OF	#N/A	454	454
118	11	Chris Young	OF	#N/A	457	457
119	11	Franklin Gutierrez	OF	#N/A	460	460
120	11	Andre Ethier	OF	#N/A	464	464
121	11	Ezequiel Carrera	OF	#N/A	470	470
122	11	Eddie Rosario	OF	#N/A	486	486
123	11	Ryan Rua	OF	#N/A	489	489
124	11	Jabari Blash	OF	#N/A	490	490
125	11	Albert Almora	OF	#N/A	500	500

Outfield Rankings Analysis: May

There's been some minor reshuffling in the top three tiers, but for the most part, it's the same players involved. The notable exception, of course, is Aaron Judge. The rookie has slowed down a bit recently with just one home run in his last eight games, but he still leads MLB with 14 bombs. It's worth noting that even with that (relative) drought, his HR/FB% remains close to 50 percent. Given that only one player has ever finished a season with a HR/FB% above 35 percent, it's fair to expect a comedown. Additionally, Judge's elevated strikeout rate will make it tough for him to continue hitting for a high average. Still, he's been much more impressive than any of us expected in 2017.

Moving into the middle tiers, there are some notable risers. Marcell Ozuna has looked more like the elite hitter from the first half of last season than the middling bat of the second half, lending credence to the idea that injury derailed his breakout campaign. Speaking of injury rebounds, Michael Brantley appears to be fully recovered from the shoulder problems that ruined his 2016. Chris Owings is finally cashing in on the promise he showed before his own shoulder issues a couple of years ago, offering opportunistic fantasy owners a blend of power and speed with the added bonus of shortstop eligibility. Jay Bruce is proving he still has something left in the tank, though he'll need to avoid a third straight second-half collapse. Teammate Michael Conforto has taken advantage of the Mets' ever-lengthening list of players on the disabled list and made himself impossible to bench.

The most pronounced drop - outside of the suspended Starling Marte - belongs to Jose Bautista, who fell from 20th to outside the top 40 outfielders thanks to Nick's pessimistic ranking. The veteran has smacked four homers in May, including three in the past week. Reports of his demise may have been greatly exaggerated. Jackie Bradley Jr. has always been a streaky hitter, and he's been ice-cold to start 2017. In hindsight, my preseason valuation was overly optimistic...though it doesn't look nearly as awful as my bold prediction that Byron Buxton would put up a 20/40 season. There's three-quarters of the season left to play, but that one's already DOA. Can't win 'em all.

A few quick hits to close things out:

Matt Holliday validated my faith in a rebound, and I failed to give him as much of a bump in this update as I should have. Go ahead and swap him with Bradley in my rankings.
Mark Trumbo has been even worse than I expected, but he's due for some positive regression. There's no way he ends the season with single-digit HR/FB%.
Aaron Altherr deserves a lot more love than he got here, and I regret not pushing him harder as a sleeper this offseason.
Kevin Pillar was my most glaring omission.