Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Week 1 Player Props and Parlays (2026)

September 9, 2026

Expert NFL betting picks for Thursday, 9/10/26. Player props, same game parlays, and game picks for Thursday Night Football game between the 49ers and Rams.

Hello everybody, and welcome to the Week 1 edition of Thursday Night Football bets and props! The NFL season finally kicks off this week, and we here at RotoBaller could not be more thrilled to bring you some of the best content on the market. We are excited to bring betting content to all those interested in every slate in any given week.

This weekly article will focus on the Thursday night slate, and I will provide several different betting angles for the games scheduled. I will typically provide at least one play on the game's total or spread, as well as at least three player or game props, and a fun single-game parlay. Although this article will be published each week on Thursday mornings, you can always feel free to check out our Discord Channel to see plays posted throughout the week.

This week's Thursday night slate features a matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne, Australia. This matchup should provide plenty of goodies for us to try to take advantage of. Without further delay, let's get into tonight's picks for Week 1 of Thursday Night Football!

Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-198 ML)

Over/Under (48.5)

Thursday Night Football Game Picks

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

We have a really interesting matchup between two NFC West rivals taking place overseas in the land down under between the Rams and 49ers. For the first couple of weeks of the season, we'll primarily rely on 2025 NFL stats, as we don't yet have a solid framework to work from this season.

Last year, both of these defenses were strong in terms of points per game allowed, with the Rams allowing 20.4 PPG and the 49ers allowing 21.8 PPG. Each team ranked in the top half of the league in this category. Being division rivals, these two teams also met twice last season; however, they averaged 58.5 PPG in those two contests, with both totals going over the currently listed 48.5.

One area of struggle that jumps out immensely when comparing these two teams is the 49ers' pass defense. In 2025, they allowed an average of 232 passing yards per game, which ranked eighth worst in the league. That being said, they had a strong run defense, allowing just 107.8 rushing yards per game and ranking in the top half of the league.

The Rams have no shortage of options in the passing game with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and could choose to move the ball through the air against a vulnerable defense, which would lengthen the game and possibly force San Francisco to keep up. This is exactly what happened in the two games a season ago, as Matthew Stafford averaged nearly 335 passing yards per game in those two contests.

The same concept could play out here, which could certainly leave the back door open for an over play. While I do think the 49ers can keep it close, I am not as confident in selecting them to cover the 3.5 here, given the weaknesses in their secondary.

The Pick: OVER 48.5 (-108)

Thursday Night Football Player Props

Matthew Stafford OVER 269.5 Passing Yards (-103)

This is the prop that makes the most sense to me, given where the 49ers defense finished the 2025 season. As aforementioned, they ranked in the bottom half of the league by allowing an average of over 232 passing yards per game. In the two contests against the Rams, they allowed Stafford to throw for 389 passing yards and 280 passing yards, respectively.

Additionally, the Niners' run defense proved pretty tough, allowing just 107.8 rushing yards per game and ranking in the top half of the league. When looking at Stafford overall, we should also note that he threw for 270 or more passing yards in nine total games in 2025.

This feels like a spot where the Rams come out trying to move the ball through the air after struggling a bit on the ground, and find success doing so. Stafford should have a solid shot at getting over this total and getting his season off on the right foot.

STAFFORD TO PARKINSON FOR THE GO-AHEAD TOUCHDOWN! 🦀

📺 @NFLonFOX | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/68pX3eH7uY

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 11, 2026

Puka Nacua OVER 91.5 receiving yards (-114)

Puka Nacua is apparently nursing a groin injury, but is expected to play in Australia on Thursday night. We have seen this story before where Nacua nurses an injury, shows up on the injury report, and then absolutely goes nuclear when he is expected to be sort of a decoy. I think we are looking at a similar situation in this matchup.

Nacua will frequently be set to 100 or more receiving yards as his prop throughout the season, so we are probably getting a bit of a discount here. In 2025, he went for 95 or more receiving yards in eight regular-season games and two of three playoff games. The guy is an absolute beast.

While he did fail to reach this total in both games against the Niners in 2025, it was not for a lack of effort, as he saw 18 targets between the two contests. Overall, Nacua averaged over 10 targets per game in 2025, which equated to 28.5% of the Rams' target share and ranked him in the 96th percentile.

Stafford and this passing attack will not be messing around in Week 1, and Nacua should benefit more than any other pass-catcher in this contest. Another prop worth taking a look at here would be Nacua OVER 7.5 receptions, which is currently listed at +108 over on DraftKings.

Puka Nacua with the YAC TD 💪

LARvsSF on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/pUZsF7Gq0F

— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025

Christian McCaffrey UNDER 59.5 rushing yards (-115)

I rarely look to play CMC's rushing yards prop over, as he gets too much run in the passing game and is not getting any younger. The matchup against the Rams also does not look like a spot where there will be a positive game script for him to have a ton of carries. In 2025, McCaffrey ran for more than 60 yards in eight regular-season games, none of which came against the Rams.

In fact, he ran for just 87 combined rushing yards on 36 carries against this Rams defense. This is not all that surprising, given the fact that Los Angeles allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game to the running back position.

The other thought here is that the Rams will pace this game with their passing attack, leaving the Niners in catch-up mode for most of the game, which will not lend itself well to the running game. That being said, I could see a spot for McCaffrey to go over his receiving props, which are currently set to 39.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions.

Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay

This is a new wrinkle in the article compared to past seasons, where we will build a fun same-game parlay for you all to consider. As these are parlays, it is always recommended to scale down and make these bets a little more conservatively, as we will need multiple legs to go right in order to hit. The legs I like tonight include:

• Puka Nacua ANYTIME touchdown scorer
• Matthew Stafford 2+ touchdown passes
• Game total OVER 48.5
• Total odds: +310

Tonight's SGP should look familiar, as we are combining a lot of what we like above, but adding in some scoring opportunities for Nacua and Stafford. Stafford threw two or more touchdown passes in all but two regular-season games last season en route to winning the NFL MVP.

Stafford also threw two touchdown passes in each of the games against San Francisco. Additionally, he found Nacua in the end zone in each of those games. Nacua also managed to score 11 total touchdowns in 2025, and has scored in three of his previous five games against the Niners, including both games last season.

The case for the OVER 48.5 points was made above. While the travel to Melbourne could affect the offenses in this one, I still feel like 49 or more points is very plausible for these offenses. Four of their previous six matchups have gone over this current total.

More Picks and Analysis