NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 1) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2026)

September 9, 2026

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. Andersen's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. After patiently waiting throughout the entire offseason and preseason, the regular season has officially arrived! The Seattle Seahawks will open the season on Wednesday night, looking to defend their Super Bowl title at home. However, they'll be up for a tough test against the Patriots, who traded for A.J. Brown during the offseason.

One day later, we'll see two other NFC West teams face off in primetime as the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers go head-to-head in Australia. This 49ers team is finally healthy, and we'll get to see Mike Evans make his debut with the team. On the other side, Myles Garrett will make his Rams debut while Matthew Stafford begins the quest to defend his MVP title.

Every week of the 2026 NFL season, I'll lock in picks for each game and tier them based on my confidence level for the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized. Let's get to the picks for Week 1.

Week 1 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 16 - Browns at Jaguars

It's going to take more than an offseason coaching change to fix the Browns. First-year head coach Todd Monken gets a couple of flashy new toys in wide receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, but on the flip side, Myles Garrett is gone and Deshaun Watson is still the starting quarterback. We don't expect this to be much of a challenge for the Jaguars, who are the heavy favorite to win the AFC South.

• 15 - Falcons at Steelers

Speaking of coaching changes, former Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is now in Atlanta leading the Falcons. You can never totally count out a team with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts Sr., and Drake London, but we expect them to be held back by the iffy quarterback play of Tua Tagovailoa. Pass rusher T.J. Watt should have no trouble disrupting the offensive backfield early and often.

Sources: Tua Tagovailoa has been named the Falcons’ starting quarterback for next Sunday’s regular-season opener in Pittsburgh vs. the Steelers. pic.twitter.com/Ak3RKFF5dH

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 7, 2026

• 14 - Bears at Panthers

You shouldn't sleep on the Panthers this year, but for Week 1, we're feeling pretty good about the Bears. This Chicago offense continues to trend up and will be capable of attacking Carolina on the ground or through the air. The Panthers' Bryce Young-led offense won't do enough to keep pace with the duo of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams.

• 13 - Commanders at Eagles

The Commanders' defense has been pretty uninspiring these past few years, and a Week 1 matchup against the Eagles' new-look offense won't do them any favors. Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are reportedly in for huge bounce-back seasons now that Sean Mannion has taken over as offensive coordinator. This one could get out of hand quickly.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 3 Pick 'Em Pools

• 12 - Saints at Lions

When the Lions are healthy on both sides of the ball, they're one of the scariest teams in football. On paper, an offense of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams looks unstoppable. Then, you turn around, and Aidan Hutchinson is in your face on defense. The Saints are a sleeper team this year with Tyler Shough expected to make a Year 2 leap, but we still feel good about Detroit in this one.

• 11 - Patriots at Seahawks

The NFL season opens with a Super Bowl rematch in Seattle. The Seahawks demolished the Patriots last February, and other than Kenneth Walker, they haven't lost too many big names. The Patriots are certainly better equipped to handle the Seahawks now that they have A.J. Brown, so this one should be a closer game than the Super Bowl. Still, it would be a surprise if New England pulls off the upset.

Patriots Sign Christian Gonzalez to a Four-Year Extension
https://t.co/uVqIy22wks

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) September 8, 2026

• 10 - Cardinals at Chargers

The Cardinals might be without Jeremiyah Love for this game, and even if he does play, he won't be at 100 percent. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett flashed some magic last year, but he's not a good enough quarterback to pull off an upset against the Chargers on the road. Los Angeles gets Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back from injury, and they've also beefed up the defensive side of the ball.

• 9 - 49ers at Rams

The Rams were borderline unstoppable last year, and they remain a force to be reckoned with now that Puka Nacua is officially available for Week 1. Oh, and don't forget the rich got richer, as Los Angeles somehow managed to trade for Myles Garrett. Divisional games between the 49ers and Rams are typically close, but it's hard to envision the Rams losing when all is said and done.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 3

• 8 - Bills at Texans

This is where things start to get interesting. At first glance, the Bills seem like the easy pick thanks to the combo of Josh Allen and James Cook. However, this Buffalo squad still has question marks after finishing replacing head coach Sean McDermott with Joe Brady. We're going with Buffalo, but it wouldn't totally shock us to see C.J. Stroud kick off his bounce-back year with a home win over the Bills.

• 7 - Packers at Vikings

It will be very interesting to see which version of Kyler Murray we get as he kicks off the next chapter of his career in Minnesota. Even if he just plays average football, Justin Jefferson can carry the offense while coordinator Brian Flores works his magic on defense. Green Bay feels like the right pick here, but things could get interesting with Micah Parsons (knee) and Josh Jacobs (commissioner's exempt list) both unavailable.

I don’t think Jacobs is playing this year https://t.co/n0EwLVXI7R

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 9, 2026

• 6 - Ravens at Colts

Any game featuring Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Tyler Warren is sure to be exciting. With that being said, there are also plenty of unknowns, including whether Daniel Jones can remain productive post-injury and whether head coach Jesse Minter can right the ship in Baltimore. We're taking the Ravens because we trust Jackson more than Jones, but the Colts could make a statement.

• 5 - Jets at Titans

This could be the second-least exciting game of the week, ahead of only Dolphins at Raiders. If the score is still close in the fourth quarter, it's anyone's best guess. We don't have a lot of trust in either head coach or quarterback when the game is on the line. With that said, the Titans had a good offseason, so maybe we'll see a big first impression from Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate.

• 4 - Cowboys at Giants

We're only a few years removed from a game like this being considered extremely lopsided. Now, the Giants are headed in the right direction with Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers, and Cam Skattebo. Plus, New York upgraded at head coach with John Harbaugh. Dallas has a very talented offense of its own, and they get the edge here because of their experience. However, this is a similar roster to the Cowboys team that went 7-9-1 last year.

• 3 - Broncos at Chiefs

This AFC West battle is a sneaky candidate for Game of the Week. The Broncos made a big splash by getting Jaylen Waddle this offseason, and we know their defense will be in elite form with Patrick Surtain II and Nik Bonitto. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes returns from his knee injury for the Chiefs, and he'll be welcomed back by an extremely talented supporting cast of Walker, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce.

#Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will start Monday night vs. the #Broncos barring a surprise setback this week, per HC Andy Reid.

That means Mahomes is set to make his return exactly 9 months after undergoing ACL surgery. pic.twitter.com/GJx01XG0Ei

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 8, 2026

• 2 - Buccaneers at Bengals

Fresh off a big payday, Baker Mayfield will look to lead his Bucs to a 1-0 start. On the other side of the field, Joe Burrow is injury-free and has a healthy supporting cast of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown at his disposal. We prefer the Bengals' offense, but the Buccaneers' defense. Something has to give.

• 1 - Dolphins at Raiders

When two bad teams meet, anything can happen. It's very much a new-look Dolphins squad, and while a fresh start can be good, this is still Malik Willis and Malik Washington we're talking about. Meanwhile, we're not expecting to see Fernando Mendoza for the Raiders. Still, we'll give the edge to Vegas because of Kirk Cousins' experience and Brock Bowers' dominance. With that said, if not for the Ashton Jeanty vs. De'Von Achane matchup, this game would be borderline unwatchable.

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