Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

October 7, 2021

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 5. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

There will be no victory lapping or keeping score here – largely because tight ends mostly suck and we're all losing unless we have Kelce, Waller and well, I think that's it. Sadly, I think we've even lost George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson for the time being. But the goal is to lose a little less than the rest of your competition because the game of tight ends rarely has any winners.

Hopefully this series helped lead you to be able to snag Dawson Knox off the waiver wire the past few weeks. He's been a frequent talking point here and had begun showing positive usage signs all the way back to Week 2. He looks like he's in the midst of a third-year breakout. Not all players will have such a happy ending and to be fair, we don't even know if Knox's story will end that way, but it's looking pretty good so far.

Hot waiver pickups like Tyler Conklin looked destined to fail because they simply were not getting the opportunity tight ends need to be productive and we'll be looking at another tight end that likely saw his rostership increase mightily this week to determine if he's someone fantasy managers can trust moving forward.

Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans

It was Firkser's first game back since their Week 1 loss to the Arizona Cardinals and he immediately reclaimed his role as the top receiving tight end for the Titans. With A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both out with injuries, fantasy managers might have flocked towards adding him on a whim. The idea looks like a good one. In Week 1, Tannehill dropped back to pass 35 times. Firkser was on the field for 29 of those pass plays and ran a route on 27 of them. That's a lot of opportunity for the fifth-year pro.

He received four targets in that game and caught three of them, but for only 19 scoreless yards. In Week 4, Tannehill dropped back to pass 49 times and Firkser was on the field for 45 of those plays and ran a route on 41 of them. That is excellent news. Some of that usage might have been inflated due to Brown and Jones being hurt, but it's still an excellent development. Julio looks likely to miss another week, while Brown might be able to return in Week 5.

The Tennessee passing offense lacks any consistent weapons behind these two and it's possible Firkser could play himself into that third role. He'll split targets with the running backs who have been used more in the passing game than they have been in previous seasons, but it's still a good thing to see him with an easy pathway to No. 3 status on the target hierarchy. Especially with the injuries that constantly surround A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

In Week 4, Firkser received five targets, catching three of them for 23 scoreless yards. While the production in his two contests was lacking, the opportunity was not. The Titans are an offense that would like to run the ball more than they pass, but unfortunately for them, their defense may not allow them to do this as much as they'd like, which from a fantasy perspective is good news for Firkser.

In deeper leagues, he's someone that is worth adding if you're struggling at tight end. The great news for him as it relates to Week 5 is he plays the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have given up 19 points per game in half-PPR settings to tight ends this season.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Unfortunately, far too many fantasy managers expected Kyle Pitts to be generational from the get-go. That was simply just not very realistic. He's a rookie. The offense has a new head coach and new offensive coordinator. This thing was going to take some time, which is why his ADP was probably far too high back during draft season. That, however, is neither here nor there. At this point, it's irrelevant. The question becomes, what do we make of Kyle Pitts right now and moving forward for the rest of the season?

Kyle Pitts is the best buy low in fantasy football right now.

Check out his usage among TEs:

219 Air Yards (5th)
23.22% Air Yard Share (3rd)
26 Targets (6th)
16.67% Target Share (9th)
6 Red-Zone Targets (1st)
22.22% Red-Zone Target Share (4th)
8.4 Average Depth of Target (4th)

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) October 4, 2021

We are following the opportunity. Fantasy managers are often – stupidly – still hanging onto the cost at which they drafted some players. A fifth-round bust is often going to be greeted with more disdain and frustration than the eighth-rounder who is busting just the same. Here's the thing though, in Week 5, the draft cost is irrelevant. If I can make an offer for Kyle Pitts and buy him low, I am absolutely doing that – without question. If I have Kyle Pitts on my roster, I'm starting him every week – without question. You know, unless I somehow also have Travis Kelce or something crazy like that.

But look at his usage numbers. They are elite and eventually, good players receiving elite usage will start producing fantasy points. It's tried and true and it is almost never wrong. Skill + Volume  = Fantasy Heaven. Now, you might be thinking... maybe Kyle Pitts just isn't very good. Well, if four weeks in his first season in the NFL is changing your "he's a generational talent" thought process you had before the draft, I'd happily take him off your hands.

Check this out. Matt Ryan has thrown the ball 159 times this season. Pitts has been on the field for 155 of them and he's run a route on 139 of those. 87% of the time Ryan drops back to pass, Pitts is in a route. That is some insane opportunity, but it gets better. 72 of those routes, he's running from the slot, and 48 times, he's lined up outside. 120 of his total 155 routes are being run like he's a receiver. The best tight ends are the ones that are treated as wide receivers. We see it with Travis Kelce. We see it with Darren Waller. We're seeing it with Kyle Pitts. Go buy Pitts or stay the course.

C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals

Going into the 2021 season, I know myself and a lot of other fantasy analysts were expecting the Bengals to implement a pass-heavy approach to their offense. That thought process was only solidified further when they selected Ja'Marr Chase in the 2021 NFL Draft. That hasn't exactly played out the way we all thought it would though. Through four weeks, they're averaging just 31 passes per game, which is ranked 25th in the NFL. This offense is being run through Joe Mixon, not Joe Burrow – stupid as that sounds. But it's what we got, so we need to be able to adapt our line of thinking of what to expect.

C.J. Uzomah is the classic "chasing touchdowns" approach to tight ends. It's a silly method especially with these kinds of players that are in the streamer department on their best days. If tight ends don't score that many touchdowns relative to other positions and a player just scored two last week, what are the chances it happens again the following week? It's just not very good, but we're not here to talk about touchdowns. We're talking about volume and opportunity. What does that mean for C.J. Uzomah?

Out of Joe Burrow's 107 pass attempts, he has been in a route on 89 of them. It's not a bad role at all. In fact, it's one that could lead to some "pop" weeks like the one we saw in Week 4. The problem, however, is where he ranks on the target hierarchy. For tight ends, fantasy managers want them to be the No. 2 passing option, but at worst, we need them to be the No. 3 for them to be considered somewhat dependable. Uzomah is No. 4 behind Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Even then, he's still fighting with the running backs who siphon off a few targets here and there too. What makes this even worse is the fact there's simply not enough volume to support that many pass catchers. If the Bengals were throwing it 50 times per game, that would be a different story, but they're not. They're barely throwing it 30, so after Chase, Higgins, and Boyd get theirs, there's very little left to go around.

His usage and opportunity are there and it's why we'll likely see him pop off 1–2 more times the rest of the year, but it's not something fantasy managers can depend on. It should also be noted, Uzomah's big game came against the Jaguars who have been the worst at covering tight ends through four weeks this season. Also, Tee Higgins was out with a shoulder injury and is expected to return in Week 5. Leave him on your waiver wire.

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

I'm not entirely sure what happened in Week 1 when Knox ran only 25 routes out of Josh Allen's 51 drop-backs, but since that time, everything has changed. From Weeks 2–4, Allen has attempted 105 passes and Knox has been in a route on 90 of them. That's an elite opportunity and it's what we're chasing as fantasy managers.

While we just talked about Uzomah's opportunity being optimal and it simply not being enough, Knox might appear to fall under the same issues, right? I mean, the Bills have Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley, but Dawson Knox is getting involved. In Week 2, his target share was just 9%. In Week 3, it improved to 11.5%, and in Week 3, it ballooned to 27.5%.

Top-5 TEs in Week 4 Target Share

1.Dalton Schultz 36%
2.Dawson Knox 27%
3. George Kittle 27%
4.Noah Fant 27%
5.Mark Andrews 22%

— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) October 5, 2021

Fantasy managers shouldn't expect Knox to have a 27.5% target share moving forward, but it doesn't need to be. Josh Allen is averaging 39 passes per game and that's with two games where the Bills won 75–0, combined. Needless to say, more competitive outings will increase his pass attempts. Nonetheless, the high volume passing attack means a 15% target share will look different than it will in other offenses.

Knox definitely looks like a tight end that can stick this year and be someone fantasy managers can start on a weekly basis. On top of the number of routes he's running, he is tied with Stefon Diggs with six red-zone targets. His six red-zone targets are second among all tight ends, trailing only Darren Waller. Diggs, Beasley, and Sanders – none of them are necessarily big targets and Knox could become a favorite of Josh Allen in the red zone or already has.

At this time, Knox needs to be the priority add for tight ends. The upside is there in terms of touchdowns. He's running a ton of routes, and his targets have increased each week since Week 2. He's on one of the most pass-happy offenses with an MVP candidate at quarterback. He's a waiver wire darling.

Evan Engram, New York Giants

Evan Engram is one of the biggest mysteries at the tight end position. Last year, he was fourth among tight ends in targets. Despite that incredible usage, he didn't even finish inside the top-15 in half-PPR scoring at his position. And the injuries have become a nagging issue, one that pops up every single year it seems. So far, 2021 has been no different.

He missed the first two games of the season. Since returning, he's run 59 routes out of the 75 dropbacks Daniel Jones has had. 79% isn't great, but it's not terrible either. During those two games, he has a 13.3% target share, accumulating 10 targets through Weeks 3–4. He caught seven of those targets for 48 yards. In Week 4 – a smash spot for Engram – with Shepard and Slayton out, Engram mustered 27 yards on five receptions, despite Jones throwing for over 400 yards.

There is a viable pathway for Engram to become one of Jones' top two or three targets, but the question is and has been since 2020, what will he do with it? I don't want to shy too much away from Engram because his overall usage and target share numbers are exactly what we're chasing when it comes to tight ends. But at some point, fantasy managers need to move on from the "okay, you got the opportunity" to "where are the goods?" and right now, fantasy managers have been asking "where are the goods?" with Evan Engram for over a year now.

I am not dropping Engram, but I'm not totally comfortable starting him either. His overall usage and opportunity could lead to a situation that forces your hands a bit and I understand that – trust me, there are worse options. But Engram's rest of the season outlook depends a lot on what the health of Sterling Shepard is. With Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley, and the plethora of other receivers – Kyle Rudolph, Kadarius Toney, John Ross, Darius Slayton – it may become difficult for him to become a weekly fixture in the offense.

Maxx Williams, Arizona Cardinals

Maxx Williams is becoming a problem for the whole "process over results" piece that really ought to drive your fantasy football decision-making. Since Week 2, Williams is TE5 in half-PPR scoring. That is a good result, but it's absent good process. Let me explain – in fantasy football, it's impossible to always make the right decision, but it is possible to make all of your decision based on a good process. This is what we're aiming for. If we follow the right process, most of the time positive results will follow.

From Weeks 2–4, Kyler Murray has thrown the ball 102 times. Maxx Williams has run a route on just 64 of those attempts, which is good for a 63% route rate. That is not going to cut it. In Weeks 2 and 4 – his two best weeks – he ran 43 routes and was targeted on 12 of those. That equals a 28% target rate per route run. That is simply not sustainable. Not with DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, and Christian Kirk all demanding attention. Not to mention, Chase Edmonds out of the backfield.

#Cardinals Week 4 WR/TE route rates:

DeAndre Hopkins - 100%
A.J. Green - 93%
Christian Kirk - 88%
Maxx Williams - 49%
Rondale Moore - 39%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 4, 2021

If for some reason, Williams is on your roster, he's most certainly a sell-high candidate if there's a team in dire need of a tight end and they're buying into the last three weeks and the fact that Kyler Murray is his quarterback. There are some selling points for sure, but nothing about his peripherals says this kind of production is going to continue.

He has no clear path to be being the No. 2 or No. 3 target in Arizona and his opportunity in terms of routes run suggests he's a prime candidate for some negative regression. The fact his quarterback is Kyler Murray and he's a part of a high-powered offense means he'll pop some weeks, but his usage does not indicate any of what we've seen is even remotely sustainable.

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Through four weeks, it's safe to say Dalton Schultz is the No. 1 tight end in Dallas, but what does that mean for fantasy? Through four weeks, Prescott has thrown the ball 133 times – Schultz has been in a route on 93 of those or roughly 70%. For comparison, Blake Jarwin has run 91 routes, 68%. The thing fantasy managers need to recognize is this Dallas offense hasn't been near as pass-happy as we expected. In Week 1, they threw the ball 58 times, but since that time they've only thrown the ball 75 times over the past three weeks. With players such as Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb likely commanding the majority of these targets, Schultz's workload is somewhat in doubt.

The other unknown element fantasy managers need to account for is the expected return of Michael Gallup, who will add another mouth to feed in an offense that is not displaying the kind of volume we were expecting in the offseason. On a positive note, Schultz has out-targeted Jarwin, 22 to to 10, which displays Schultz is the preferred receiving option at tight end. That disparity increased in Week 4, which is also good news for Schultz, especially considering Gallup's eventual return.

The season's biggest gap in routes between #Cowboys TEs in Week 4 ...

Dalton Schultz - 23
Blake Jarwin - 10

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 4, 2021

Schultz has three red-zone targets on the season and three touchdowns, which seems to illustrate he's likely due for some regression in this regard especially with Lamb only having one score on the season. I certainly don't want to downplay Schultz's success because it clearly looks like he's caught Dak's eye, but this offense has been very run-oriented the past three weeks and Gallup's return will expand the target share to even more players. However, if he continues to separate himself from Jarwin, he could be viewed as a more dependable fantasy option. With the limited passing volume we've seen recently and the inevitable return of Gallup, Schultz's usage looks more like a backend TE1 or high-end TE2 the rest of the season, rather than the top-five we've seen thus far. Still, he's got touchdown upside in an electric offense.

Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots 

There was some hope in fantasy circles the Patriots' passing offense would run through these two players – a la Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez-lite – but that hasn't even been close to what we've seen. Mac Jones has done an excellent job of spreading the ball around, but that's not helping either of these two tight ends. Jakobi Meyers leads the way with 40 targets, but after him, there are five players between 14–21 targets. Two of those players are Smith and Henry, but that shows just how little the separation is between these pass-catchers. It's rendering both of these guys essentially irrelevant for fantasy purposes.

Hunter Henry

Henry has now seen 15 targets across his last 3 games. The ceiling is capped with Jonnu Smith around but Henry is still getting more playing time than his counterpart. Henry is startable even with Smith healthy. If Smith misses time, Henry is a TE1.

— ¢ʜᴀʟᴋ (@101chalk) October 4, 2021

If you're looking to add or hang onto one of these guys, it should be Hunter Henry. It's unknown if Jonnu Smith is still being impacted by a hip injury, but since he popped up on the injury report prior to their Week 2 game, he has played more than 50% of the snaps just one time. That limited playing time hasn't exactly hindered his ability to be involved in the offense, however.

Through four weeks, Smith has actually out-targeted Henry, 20 to 18. The problem for Smith is that his average depth of target is just 3.7 yards – Henry is at 7.4 yards. Henry's yards per reception is 10.1 while Smith lags behind at 6.8. That's impacting their overall yardage where Henry has a solid lead on his positional teammate, 141 t0 88. All of these things point to Henry having the higher upside because he's getting targets further down the field. Smith is nothing more than a short-yardage, chain-mover.

The other place where Henry has the big edge is in terms of their routes run, which goes back to their snap share and possibly Smith being hindered yet, although this is unknown. Henry has run 115 routes out of 160 pass plays. In comparison, Smith has only run 65 routes. That shows the Patriots have really tried getting Smith the ball as he's being targeted on 31% of his routes – a very healthy amount.

80% of Henry's routes are being run from the slot, whereas Smith is only running 38% of his routes from the slot. In the end, neither tight end should be on your radar except in traditional 12-team leagues. Henry appears to have the most upside on any given week and in the event of an injury. He's the player being treated more like a wide receiver, he's playing more snaps and running more routes. Unfortunately, Jones is spreading around the ball so much behind Meyers that it's rendering the rest of the pass-catchers borderline unplayable because you never know whose week it's going to be.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

In the last three games, Higbee has games of 8, 38, and 36 yards, which is a bit concerning. However, his usage rates indicate a bounce-back could be on the horizon. Outside of a weird Week 2 where Higbee only saw one target, he's been at 6, 5, and 6 targets in Weeks 1, 3, and 4.

He's running a route on just over 81% of all Matthew Stafford's dropbacks. Higbee is tied for third on the team in terms of overall targets with 18. There are a few concerns with Higbee – one of them is Van Jefferson's ascension. If he continues to be a regular option in the passing game as opposed to a role player who pops off every now and then, Higbee will have additional competition on top of Cooper Kupp and the disappointing Robert Woods.

The second concern is the Rams are simply not passing the ball very much. They are currently throwing the ball just under 34 times a game, which ranks 20th in the NFL. That was also with the Rams missing bell-cow running back Darrell Henderson which should have, in theory, increased the pass attempts.

Higbee will need the Rams to start passing more frequently if Jefferson is someone that is here to stay. The other issue is only 27 of his routes have come out of the slot. The majority of his routes are being run from an inline location, which tends to limit the depth of target and that's been true for Higbee. His average depth of target is 4.9 yards, which limits Higbee's upside and ceiling because he's simply not being used down the field. He's someone fantasy managers should be holding since he's a part of a really good offense with a really good quarterback and there's an avenue where he's the No. 2 target for some weeks; however, it's beginning to look like that once again Higbee will fail to meet fantasy managers' expectations.

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