X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

The Rookie Report - Revisiting the 2018-2019 Rookies With An Eye On Next Season (Part 1)

Earlier this season, I took a look at the early returns on this year's rookie class and made player comparisons as well as what I thought their short and long term potential would be.

Now that these kids have had a season of ball under their belts, it's time to revisit those comparisons and see where I was right and wrong. Part of being a great fantasy player is being able to recalibrate expectations after gaining additional context. It's important to be able to adjust expectations based off of additional film and numbers -- being able to do so correctly is a skill that will translate year to year - not just help you during the current season.

Like last time, I will split this into two columns. This week I will look at the early picks who were already getting big minutes early in the year, before following up with the later picks who saw their roles solidify as their rookie seasons progressed. Remember that player comparisons are in terms of what they provide in fantasy, not their actual games.

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns

Original Player Comparison: LaMarcus Aldridge 

I think this comparison is pretty spot on and Ayton's rookie season can pretty comfortably be described as Aldridge-lite. The dismal defensive numbers took a step up as the season progressed and Ayton finished the year being a contributor in those categories rather than a negative. The blocks coming up closer to 1.0 per game was something that was pretty easy to predict, but Ayton showing ability to contribute out of position steals as well at a 1.0+ clip is a pleasant surprise and definitely adds to his value going forward.

Ayton began the year with questions about his defense at the NBA level mostly from an effort standpoint, but he has shown vast improvement during the second half of his rookie campaign and should be given every opportunity to improve next season as a core piece of the rebuilding Suns. It took him until the second half of this season to provide returns on his top 50-ish valuation this year, but its reasonable to expect that from opening night next year.

2019 Draft Outlook: Top 40

 

Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies

Original Player Comparison: Kristaps Porzingis, New Player Comparison: Nikola Vucevic

I still love Jackson as a long term prospect but I think my original comparison to Porzingis was a little aggressive and overly optimistic. The sky-high block rate came down a little bit since the beginning of the year and while Jackson Jr. still posted a very solid 35.9% mark from three, it doesn't seem like he will be used as a spacer to the extent Porzingis was.

Nikola Vucevic with a few less rebounds and a few more blocks seems to be a better comparison for Jackson going forward, acting as an excellent FT% and 3s pivot from a center eligible player. I think he will be a value pick next season as his ADP will be deflated due to his injury in the second half of this season. He will be a top-40 value who may drop to the mid rounds, and that would make him someone I'll be targeting heavily next season in multiple leagues.

2019 Draft Outlook: Top 40

 

Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago Bulls

Player Comparison: Marc Gasol, New Player Comparison: Pre-3s Marc Gasol

I expected WCJ to add a few more 3s as the season went on but we never got the chance to see how he would develop due to his season ending injury. Still, it's hard to project anything significant in that category next season taking into account his losing half the season to develop his game offensively, so we need to re-calibrate our expectations a bit for next year.

Marc Gasol is still a good comp for him, but more-so the 2011-2014 version, not the current version we have now. Carter Jr. has upside for out of position assists and posts very similar % splits to young Gasol, as well as sharing upside in steals alongside blocks and the same rebounding deficiencies Gasol had early on. I think he's a good candidate as a post-injury sleeper next year and will be keeping my eye on him near the end of the middle rounds.

2019 Draft Outlook: Top 70

 

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Original Player Comparison: Victor Oladipo, New Player Comparison: Russell Westbrook

Doncic was an 80+% free throw shooter in the Euroleague so it's a pretty big surprise seeing him struggle this much in the NBA in what should be one of the most transferable skills out there. With the usage patterns that Doncic saw in his rookie year, both the FG and FT% are very worrisome and I feel like his fit next season will be almost exclusively tied to punt FT% teams that can make up for his FG% similar to how Westbrook pivots those teams so perfectly this year.

Due to the hype and name value that Doncic has cultivated among the NBA collective, I find it hard to see myself owning him anywhere. The FT% issues make him a very awkward fit in a lot of teams and not worth the price tag that it will cost to get him. Until he shows improvement in that category, I would avoid him unless you are firmly in punt FT% and he somehow drops further than the mid rounds - very unlikely considering the hype surrounding him after what has been a very impressive rookie year.

2019 Draft Outlook: Top 80, Top 40 in Punt FT%

 

Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks

Player Comparison: Damian Lillard

Trae Young has easily been the second half's most impressive rookie, taking his FG% from must punt territory early in the season to perfectly reasonable regardless of strategy. He's already entrenched himself as a consistent mid-20s scorer and elite source of assists, and the Lillard comparison looks better and better as the year goes on.

There was no doubt his dismal 3 pt% early in the year would regress to a reasonable level, and that has opened up his game and highlighted his potential as an elite scorer at the NBA level. Young will be drafted highly next year, but his skill-set is so valuable, providing elite marks in two stats that are very hard to get later on in the draft, which makes his high ADP next season fair for what he provides. If he's able to improve the steal rate and scoring even a little, he could move into the top-15 type space Lillard occupies sooner rather than later.

2019 Draft Outlook: Top 30

 

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF