The Deepest Dive - Wide Receiver Sleepers in 16+ Team Fantasy Football Leagues

June 17, 2022

Antonio Losada evaluates ADP data related to deep fantasy football leagues and comes up with a few wide receivers that can become valuable WR sleepers in 16-plus team leagues and formats.

Can you name every fantasy league you played in last season? Probably not. Can you think of their average structure? The most probable question is yes because most leagues are often comprised of eight to 12 teams with 15 roster spots each and use the now-standard PPR format of scoring. That is not always the case though, and some fantasy GMs engage in way deeper leagues yearly in order to have a tougher challenge on their hands.

Fantasy leagues can be as large as the commish wants them to be, but for our purposes, we're going to define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means each draft round would consist of 16 picks and there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADP over 240 using a dataset comprised of drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points, those would all be spoken of based on that format.

Here is a look at a few wide receivers that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16+ team leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2022 season!

WR Sleepers Worth Drafting in Super Deep (+16 Teams) Leagues

Corey Davis, New York Jets (ADP: 226) 

I know, I know. I'm cheating with that ADP, but there is just a tiny difference between Davis' ADP and the 240-threshold I set above, so you'll have to deal with this little detail and give me some room, folks. As things stand right now and considering the consensus opinion out on the streets, the depth chart of the Jets receiving corps would have Corey Davis pegged as the no. 2 wideout of the squad. With Jamison Crowder out of town and the team featuring a mixture of inexperienced and average veterans, that's nothing crazy to think about.

The problem with the Jets mainly comes down to how the hell they'd share the targets among the wideouts and the multiple tight ends (they added both C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin this season on top of drafting another TE early). That shouldn't be a reason for concern in super deep leagues in which Davis can be drafted with a very late pick... with the chance of the five-year veteran turning into a bona fide performer if he gets the benefit of QB Zach Wilson's looks.

Davis got the second-fewest targets among the Jets' main receivers (59) though he scored the second-highest FPPG mark in PPR leagues with 11.7 per game only behind Elijah Moore's 12.6 figure. Davis has his calling card in deep routes and he has one of the very top deep-threat games in the NFL to go with an extraordinary Red Zone catch rate when thrown the rock in the hot area. It's hard to make any solid prediction regarding the Jets' WRs (and I haven't even mentioned rookie Garrett Wilson) but for the hyper-cheap price, Davis could be a very high ROI asset next season.

Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 313) 

Welp. Believe it or not, Duvernay is your freshest Ravens WR2 entering the 2022 season. Uh oh, the development of this thing called offseason. Lamar Jackson is reportedly relenting (he never truly went to war, though) and is now present and with the team in the mandatory summer drills. That's cool for Baltimore, but what wasn't was dealing with Marquise Brown so they decided to send him packing to Arizona earlier this spring. Alas, Rashod Bateman is your WR1, and Devin Duvernay is your WR2.

Duvernay is clearly not on Bateman's level, so the pecking order seems about right – even more with Sammy Watkins also leaving the team and the Ravens not making any substantial addition to either the WR or TE group this offseason. Since Lamar took charge of the Ravens, pocket targets have been scarce and most of them have gone either Mark Andrews or Marquise Brown's way. That won't probably change, although Brown is not a Raven anymore. Duvernay logged 26 targets as a rookie and then almost doubled that mark last season with 47.

All things considered, Duvernay is still a super unproven player who has not done a freaking thing in the NFL, as much as Baltimore would deny that and paint a brighter picture of the wideout. Duvernay hasn't really had a real opportunity to perform steadily in the Ravens offense. His numbers aren't bad with a 2021 receiving line of 47-33-272-2 even though he "started" just seven games. That should improve next season (Bateman, as the WR2 in 2021, got 67 targets and Brown is vacating 145!). Duv is a legit slot receiver with chops to gain YAC in bunches and has a pretty solid and secure set of hands to catch any and every pass thrown his way. Of course, this is a coin flip of a pick that could go on to average 12+ FPPG... or end with a measly average of 4.5 FPPG while turning into an afterthought. Gotta take the gamble on a surefire WR2 in his team's offense at his current ADP, though.

Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 256) 

Jones is far from an unknown player. He's been around since 2012 and other than that year, in which he was barely featured for the Bengals, he's been a steady fantasy football performer with PPR-format finishes in the WR18-to-WR44 range (not counting 2018 as he missed 7 games). That's to say Jones is pretty much your average high-end WR3, low-end WR2 on a good year. Given the low ADP though, that's nothing to hate.

Jones Jr. played in Jacksonville for the first time last season, but not even having QB Trevor Lawrence as his passer turned fantasy GMs into believers – Jones commanded just an overall ADP of 124 a year ago, the second-lowest of his career after he became an established player in 2013. That ended being the smart move though, as Lawrence underperformed wildly as a rook and Jones couldn't benefit at all from the inexperienced quarterback compared to his best seasons in the past – those spent in Detroit playing under Matthew Stafford.

Other than in 2018 (again, just 9 games played), Jones has scored 172+ PPR points in all of his years in the NFL other than his rookie campaign. He's averaged 10.6+ FPPG each and every season, arrived in Jacksonville having put up 14+ FPPG in his last two seasons with the Lions, and he's completed two full seasons of play after missing time injured in his early pro days. Jacksonville has added D.J. Chark, but it's still unclear who will be the actual WR1 of the team as Jones got a monster 120 targets last season while turning into a deep-field beast with phenomenal contested-catch rates and Air Yards marks nearly into the 70th percentile.

More Fantasy Football Analysis