The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 19

August 15, 2022

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 19 of the 2022 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

With less than two months of the regular season left, for many fantasy managers, it's now or never in a bid to make the playoffs or catch up in the categories and points needed to challenge for a championship. Every move we make can make a huge impact on our season at this stage and it's even more vital we don't go dropping someone in haste or hold on to another for nostalgia.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As we near the end of the season, we need to consider making moves with specific targets in mind. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Tim Anderson – SS, Chicago White Sox – 91% rostered

A groin strain earlier in the season saw Anderson miss two weeks in June and he's back on the IL this past week with a ligament tear in his left middle finger. Following successful surgery, Anderson is now expected to miss the next five weeks of the season.

That takes us up to the final week or two of the season, so for some fantasy leagues, he's done for the year. It had been a rough season for Anderson, who ranked 17th among shortstops on Yahoo!. A far cry from the ~31 ADP (third shortstop) he was drafted at.

Anderson has hit .301/.339/.395 but has just six homers, 25 RBI, 50 runs, and 13 stolen bases (79 games). The steals and average are nice but the RBI are down (even for a leadoff hitter), the power has been lacking and even 50 runs are only so-so considering the White Sox offensive potential.

Verdict: This is Anderson's sixth IL stint in the last four years and one which effectively ends his fantasy season. It had been a down year anyway given his lofty ADP and there will be little reason to try and stash him for the sake of a week or two of games.

Christian Vazquez – C/1B, Houston Astros – 70% rostered

Following Vazquez's trade to the Astros, I wrote about his fantasy value for the rest of the season with my main concern being his spot in the batting lineup. Little did I know, the biggest concern should have been a lack of playing time.

Given how bad Martin Maldonado has been offensively this year (78 wRC+), I expected Vazquez to get the bulk of starts and just sit or come out for defensive reasons (despite Maldonado trending downwards defensively). But, it's been a near equal split for playing time.

The two have been alternating starts since Vazquez's arrival and although it's very small samples, Maldonado is actually outperforming him.

A handful of games is barely worth looking at but it's been a trend since July first, with Maldonado posting a 158 wRC+ in that timeframe and Vazquez having a 88 wRC+. If the Astros choose to go with the hot hand, Vazquez might see even less playing time.

Vazquez does still rank ninth among catchers on Yahoo! and has a solid .274/.317/.416 slash line with eight homers, 42 RBI, 33 runs, and one stolen base on the season. But he might not see many opportunities to improve upon those numbers given how the last two weeks have gone.

Verdict: Given you're only getting three starts a week from Vazquez and it's unlikely to increase without an injury to Maldonado, I don't see Vaquez being worth rostering in anything other than deeper two-catcher leagues. There should be suitable replacements on waivers at the position.

Matt Carpenter – 1B/2B/OF, New York Yankees – 43% rostered

The Matt Carpenter Rennaissance came to a shuddering halt this week after the veteran lefty fouled a ball off his foot, fracturing it. Initial assessment of the injury suggests Carpenter will miss six to eight weeks, all but ending his regular season.

It's been a remarkable season for Carpenter. After signing a Minor League deal with the Texas Rangers, the Yankees signed Carpenter due to a COVID outbreak in their clubhouse following his release from the Rangers organization.

And Carpenter hit .305/.412/.727 with 15 homers, 37 RBI, 28 runs and no steals in just 47 games. Given his last two years in St Louis saw him hit seven homers in 180 games with a .176/.313/.291 slash line, it's safe to say that no one saw this coming.

But with it unlikely we see Carpenter again this regular season, and if we do, it'll only be for a handful of games, let's just sit back and enjoy some of his highlights in the 2022 season.

Verdict: As hard as this is to say, Carpenter should just be dropped in all leagues. You'd be holding on to him for the sake of a week of games at best and he'll need to use any and all available time to get up to speed and prepare for a postseason run.

Hold For Now

Logan Gilbert – SP, Seattle Mariners – 92% rostered

Gilbert is having a solid season and helping the Mariners push for a Wild Card spot. In 23 starts, he has a 10-5 W-L record, 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 122 Ks (132.1 IP). Although a look at his Statcast profile will make you wonder how Gilbert ranks as the 46th starting pitcher on Yahoo!

It will probably come as no surprise that Gilbert has ridden some luck this year, with a 4.29 xERA, 3.94 xFIP, and 3.97 SIERA. Nothing too alarming but his ERA is around 0.50 lower than you might expect it should be, especially given the level of contact Gilbert offers up.

The main concern for fantasy managers is his recent outings, allowing 13 earned runs over 9.1 IP in his last two starts, which has seen his ERA jump up from 2.78. But, they both came against the Yankees so it's not like he's getting beaten up by scrubs.

It may be a case of Gilbert slowing down, given he didn't pitch in 2020 and threw 124.1 innings last year. In 2019, Gilbert totaled 135.0 IP across three levels so he's set to surpass that, leaving question marks about how many more he'll get through before the season's end, especially with a possible postseason berth on offer.

For now, I'm not dropping Gilbert and I don't think his last two starts are the norm moving forward. But I also don't think he'll post a sub 3.50 ERA between now and October. I'm interested to see how he bounces back next time out but won't start him no matter what and might utilize him depending on matchups moving forward.

Clay Holmes – RP, New York Yankees – 86% rostered

Holmes had emerged as one of the best closers in baseball but has struggled during the last two weeks (allowing seven earned runs in 4.0 IP since July 31st). His season-long numbers are still great with a 5-3 W-L record, 2.39 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 51 Ks, and 17 saves (49.0 IP).

Holmes' success comes from a nasty sinker that offsets perfectly with an equally filthy slider.

But he was only filling in as the Yankees closer while Aroldis Chapman was hurt (and inefficient). Chapman is now healthy and has 9.1 IP without allowing a run and giving up just three hits with no walks (which is the biggest thing) and 10 strikeouts. Why do I suggest not just dumping Holmes now?

This is where things get a little clouded. Last Friday against the Cardinals, Holmes came in to pitch in the eighth inning with the Yankees up by one run. He gave up two runs on two hits and a walk, giving the Cardinals a lead which they held on to in the ninth inning.

After the game, Aaron Boone stated that Chapman would've pitched the ninth if Holmes hadn't coughed up the lead, which all but anointed Chapman as the Yankees closer again. Straightforward enough then. Chapman is back being the Yankees closer it sounded like. Well, now for the complication.

On Monday, the Yankees led the Mariners 7-3 after seven innings. Chapman was brought in to pitch the eighth inning and faced the 1-2-3 hitters. The Yankees added a couple more runs in the top of the ninth before Holmes pitched the ninth (giving up a run).

On Tuesday, it was a similar story. In a tie-game, Chapman was brought in to pitch the eighth inning, this time facing the Mariners' 6-7-8 hitters before Holmes came in to pitch the ninth with the game still scoreless, facing the 1-2-3 hitters.

Then came an even clearer indication that Chapman isn't the sole closer still. On Friday night, Chapman pitched the eighth inning with the Yankees up by one run and he faced the 8-9-1 hitters. Holmes came in for the ninth to get the save. But, true to recent form, blew the save (his third in five appearances) and the Yankees lost in the 10th.

On Saturday, Chapman came in to pitch the seventh (facing a lefty) with two outs and a runner on second base. He hit Alex Verdugo and then caught Xander Bogaerts stealing third to end the seventh before Chapman then pitched a clean eighth inning. After the Yankees took the lead in the top of the ninth, Scott Effross came in and picked up the save.

It sure seemed like Boone wanted to keep giving the ninth inning to Holmes, but his recent ineffectiveness might have ended that faith in him. I have no doubt Holmes gets back to his best this year but how he's used is very much up in the air right now. And the Yankees' closer situation is as clear as mud, as my mum would say.

Seiya Suzuki – OF, Chicago Cubs – 72% rostered

Suzuki got off to a red hot start to his MLB career, homering three times in the first four games and then homering for the fourth time in his ninth game. Unfortunately, Suzuki's struggles began and he had 32 homerless games before hitting the IL with a finger injury.

Suzuki missed more than five weeks but since his return, has displayed his power again, homering five times in his last 32 games. On the season, Suzuki is hitting .245/.320/.418 with nine homers, 34 RBI, 34 runs, and six stolen bases (73 games).

I did a preseason piece on what to expect from Suzuki, and a big part of it was potential struggles in his first season but still displaying power and I was high on his long-term prospects. So far, outside of the injury, Suzuki has been about what I expected.

Suzuki's Statcast profile is about what I expected too. Good plate discipline but can be overpowered and makes good quality contact when he does put the bat on the ball. Since his return from injury, Suzuki has cut down the strikeouts (22.1% K%) while hitting .246/.290/.402 with five homers, 13 RBI, 14 runs, and three steals (32 games).

That's left Suzuki ranking as the 64th outfielder on Yahoo! over the last 30 days and he's been borderline rosterable in shallower leagues throughout the year. The high strikeout rate isn't ideal for points leagues but he's cut that down recently and in all but the shallowest of leagues, is a serviceable outfielder who should contribute across the five hitting categories.

On the Hot Seat

Ian Happ – OF, Chicago Cubs – 78% rostered

Happ currently ranks as the 32nd outfielder on Yahoo!, making him worthwhile rostering in almost any format. In 109 games, Happ has 10 homers, 52 RBI, 47 runs, and six stolen bases while putting up a .280/.356/.441 slash line.

You may think he's had a drop-off in power, given Happ hit 25 homers last year and is on course to hit 10 fewer this year. But his .441 SLG actually betters last year's mark (.434) which is largely down to the 30 doubles he's hit (tied-11th most in baseball).

The biggest growth Happ has shown is cutting down the strikeouts. His 23.4% K% is still only in the 29th percentile, but given he had a 30.8% K% in the Majors prior to this year and the 29.2% K% Happ had last year was in the ninth percentile, it's a significant improvement.

Alas, that was until recently. In July, Happ had a 30.8% K% (25 games) and in 10 August appearances, Happ has a 34.1% K%. The good news is that Happ's still hitting pretty well since July 1st with a .280/.304/.413 slash line, but yesterday's homer was only his second in that time frame.

And if we look at Happ's zone chart strikeout rate, it's pretty obvious where Happ's weakness is. Pitchers will be aware of this and that will help explain why we've seen an increase in Happ's strikeout rate recently.

In points league where strikeouts count negatively, the recent trend will have a great impact on Happ's fantasy value and unless he can get the strikeouts in check again, he'll be a borderline rosterable outfielder in shallower points leagues.

The Cubs' offense won't help Happ's value, with the team ranking 21st in runs scored (465) so a trade might have helped Happ's fantasy value moving forward. In truth, Happ is a bit of a dull option for your fantasy teams but there's also nothing wrong with that. Even his Statcast profile is a bit 'meh.'

But boring can be fine. Being able to just leave Happ in your lineup week-to-week and not worry about him isn't a bad thing. He's not going to harm your teams, while he doesn't put up enough stats to carry your teams to a title. But I'm not considering dropping Happ and as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff, should still be a top-50 outfielder the rest of this year.

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Jeremy Pena – SS, Houston Astros – 65% rostered

The Astros rookie got off to a hot start in 2022 and made the fans forget all about Carlos Correa. The two have actually had very similar seasons, with Pena ranking at the 24th shortstop in fantasy and Correa the 29th (according to Yahoo!).

If we compare the two, you'll see why they are so closely ranked.

Considering their respective ADPs this offseason (Pena ~426 and Correa ~98), it's safe to say Pena has provided significantly better value. The problem has been Pena's recent struggles as he's hitting just .244/.244/.311 in August and .226/.248/.384 since July 1st, and is homerless in his last 16 games.

Pena has hit six homers since July 1st (despite his current streak) with 14 RBI, 17 runs, and one stolen base so it's not been all bad, but he's certainly not been provided much fantasy help and ranks as the 41st shortstop on Yahoo! over the last 30 days. That's behind Elvis Andrus, Geraldo Perdomo, and Ezequiel Duran.

I do still like Pena long-term but I'm a little worried pitchers have adjusted to him and in shallower leagues, so there could be someone on waivers who can contribute more to your fantasy rosters than Pena. Especially if you're chasing help in a specific category. In Dynasty leagues, Pena is still an obvious hold.

Christopher Morel – 2B/3B/OF, Chicago Cubs – 41% rostered

Morel was one of the stories of the first half and was one of the most added players off of waivers in the early goings. But he has since found himself back on more waivers than he is on rosters. A look at his Statcast profile tells us where his problem lies.

While he's made solid contact throughout the season, Morel simply makes too little contact and is striking out far too much. That shouldn't come as a shock if you look at his Minor League numbers, with a 29.7% K% at Double-A last year (101 games).

On the season, Morel has 10 homers, 31 RBI, 44 runs, and nine stolen bases (70 games) so has a 20/20 pace over a full season. But his swing-and-miss profile has seen him benched more frequently and he's only started six of the Cubs' 11 games in August.

Morel is a reminder that fantasy skills aren't what MLB managers look for and high strikeout numbers and poor defense come into consideration when managers pick their lineups. Morel's diminishing playing time makes him droppable in all but the deeper leagues.

Santiago Espinal – 2B/3B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays – 28% rostered

Espinal has had a solid season for the Blue Jays, building on last year's mini breakout when he hit .311/.376/.405 with two homers 17 RBI, 32 runs, and six steals (92 games). This year, with more regular playing time, Espinal has seven homers, 41 RBI, 40 runs, and five stolen bases while hitting .266/.316/.380 (105 games).

But like Morel, he's found frequent playing time harder to come by lately. While Espinal has been versatile playing at third base (nine games) and shortstop (10 games), it's at second base (92 games) where he's made a role for himself.

With Bo Bichette entrenched at shortstop and Matt Chapman locked into third base, second base is the only real regular spot open to Espinal, but the Blue Jays have been giving Cavan Biggio more regular at-bats at the position and with a pretty stacked outfield since the arrival of Whit Merrifield (even with George Springer sidelined), Espinal is struggling to start most games.

Merrifield has only played twice at second base since being traded to Toronto and is needed in the outfield with Springer's injury. But when Springer returns, Merrifield is another option for second base and Espinal will probably see even less playing time.

Espinal is an excellent defender (96th percentile in Outs Above Average), which will keep him on the field but he lacks much power and speed to contribute a great deal in fantasy and if his playing time keeps shrinking, the counting stats will disappear too. Espinal is only a deep league option right now.

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