Christian Vazquez Traded to Astros - Fantasy Baseball Impact

August 4, 2022

We look at the potential fantasy baseball impact of the trade that sent catcher Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox to the Astros ahead of the 2022 MLB trade deadline.

The trade season burst into life before the August 2 deadline and the Houston Astros were among the most active team making moves.

Whilst it probably won't make as much news as some of the other trades that have since gone down, the Astros trading for catcher Christian Vazquez from the Boston Red Sox could prove to be a key move.

What is the fallout of the trade and how will it impact your fantasy teams?

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Top-10 Fantasy Catcher?

Vazquez was drafted as the 10th catcher this preseason, with an ADP of ~209, and it's fair to say he's outperformed that so far as he ranks as the seventh best catcher (according to Yahoo! using standard 5x5 scoring).

That's down to his .282/.327/.432 slash line with eight homers, 42 RBI, 33 runs, and one stolen base (84 games). Below shows where he ranks among catchers in each of the five hitting categories.

For batting average, that is catchers with at least 200 at-bats. So Vazquez has been a well-rounded performer and fully warranted his ADP of being a top-10 catcher, but will that continue now that he's in Houston?

Ballpark Upgrade

Fenway Park is rightly considered a hitter-friendly ballpark, but according to Statcast, Vazquez has an expected home run (xHR) total of 11 if he played at Minute Maid Park all season, instead of the eight he hit before the trade and the xHR total of eight at Fenway Park.

Below is an overlay of Vazquez's spray chart over Minute Maid Park.

We can see that the Green Monster may have actually turned a couple of homers into singles or doubles and with Vazquez's power coming from pulling the ball, Minute Maid park might add a couple more home runs to Vazquez's end-of-season total.

Lineup Support and Team Context

After starting the season hitting ninth for the Red Sox, Vazquez worked his way up the order and has been mostly hitting fifth and second in July. Given it's unlikely Vazquez hits higher than sixth for the Astros, that could be a drag on his runs and RBI totals.

If we compare the Astros offense with the Red Sox, we can see that it's not quite an upgrade moving from Boston to Houston. If Vazquez does hit lower down the order, his counting stats could be worse off than if he stayed in Boston.

It remains to be seen where Vazquez hits and the Astros might surprise us and put him high up the order. Yuli Gurriel has been hitting second over the last few games, despite a .243/.293/.393 slash line on the season so it wouldn't be crazy to think Vazquez could slot in as the number two hitter.

Defense Matters

In Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro, the Astros already have two defense-first catchers, but that's not entirely true. This year, Maldonado ranks in the 38th percentile for pitch framing, while Jason Castro ranks in the third percentile.

In regards to 'pop time to second base,' Castro ranks in the 54th percentile and Maldonado in the 87th percentile, so they are both considerably better at throwing out runners than they are framing pitches. Castro is currently on the IL and only played 34 games this season, leaving an even bigger hole at the position.

Comparatively, Vazquez actually fares well against the two defensively, ranking in the 50th percentile for framing and 74th percentile for pop time to second base. While there may be instances when the Astros want to start Maldonado if he pairs well with one of their starters, Vazquez isn't a downgrade behind the plate.

Conclusion

The Astros had a huge black hole at the catcher position, ranking last collectively in most offensive categories.

Obviously, Vazquez provides a big upgrade to what the Astros have been getting at the catcher position and he's not a defensive liability, even performing comparably with what the Astros have on their roster. That should hopefully lead to a solid amount of playing time for the rest of the season.

And while the new ballpark might add a couple of homers for Vazquez, it isn't an overall upgrade. Nor is the new offense he finds himself in, especially if he finds himself hitting in the bottom half of the lineup.

Overall, I don't believe Vazquez's fantasy value goes up from this move. Unless he does hit second or in the top half of the Astros lineup, Vazquez might even see a drop off in his fantasy value over the final two months of the season.

I still see Vazquez being a top-10 catcher for the remainder of the season and certainly don't think anyone should be dropping him, but I'd temper any excitement that he'll end the season higher than the number seven catcher he currently is, without hitting in that number two slot.

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