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Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 13 of the 2018 MLB season, sorted by launch angle. Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.
Launch angle is one of the most commonly referenced Statcast results these days. Some stadiums even display these statistics on each batted ball for the most casual fan to see during a ballgame. Taken in isolation, it doesn't tell the whole story of a batted ball's progress, but it can be a valuable tool to explore a hitter's ability to generate lift and, consequently, extra-base hits.
Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we've done for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.
Each week, we'll take a look at some key Statcast offensive metrics in order to assess risers and fallers. This time, we'll look again at launch angle in conjunction with exit velocity, focusing on different players than in the first iteration of this analysis several weeks ago. As we approach the All-Star break in a couple of short weeks, we'll increase the threshold for qualifiers to 100 plate appearances (PA).
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Surprising Chart Toppers
All stats current as of June 25, 2018 and display leaders among hitters with at least 100 PA
Brian McCann (C, HOU) - 23.9° Avg. Launch Angle
McCann is the leading angle-getter at this stage of the season, given our qualifications, although fellow backstop John Ryan Murphy would have him beat if he recorded a few more plate appearances. It's been a non-descript season for McCann, who missed some time early in June and has lost the occasional start to hotter-hitting Max Stassi. He's putting up a career-high 52.6% fly ball rate, but it isn't resulting in much other than fly ball outs. Despite the impressive launch angle, he's gone deep just once in June and has only four extra-base hits in the last two months. Still, McCann survives as a starter on the best team in baseball and has value given his position and penchant for power. He's been dropped to last in the batting order recently, but with a lineup that deep it shouldn't hurt his RBI potential too much. He's a bench stash for now and a must-hold in two-catcher leagues on the chance he regains his stroke.
Robinson Chirinos (C, TEX) - 20.9° Avg. Launch Angle
Another catcher, another survivor. The Rangers' attempt to replace him with Jonathan Lucroy last year proved to be an exercise in futility. Among catchers with at least 100 PA, Chirinos is tied for seventh with nine HR and tied for 10th with 25 RBI. Chirinos is enjoying an 18% HR/FB in conjunction with his 50.5% FB%, both numbers that are sustainable given his recent trends. Of course, that goes along with a .197 batting average and strikeout rate near 40%. The power is real, but so is the tradeoff.
Luis Valbuena (1B/3B, LAA) - 18.6° Avg. Launch Angle
At age 32, Valbuena has seen some big swings in historical trends regarding plate discipline, not for the better. Valbuena is walking half as much as last year, striking out 11% more than his career average, and has a 14.3% SwStr% that is a career-worst. His O-Swing% has also jumped up to 31.7%, seven points above last year, although his O-Contact% remains unimproved. With his free-swinging ways and newfound launch angle, he's gotta be generating Gallo-like numbers, right? Despite a respectable 89.6 mph exit velocity, his 0.80 GB/FB rate is lower than it has been the last two years and he has just 14 XBH in 205 at-bats. Valbuena has some pop, but his declining contact rate makes him someone to ignore.
Robbie Grossman (OF, MIN) - 18.3° Avg. Launch Angle
With no Byron Buxton, Grossman has been a fixture in the Twins lineup thanks to his solid glove and patience at the plate. Grossman is renowned for his walk rate, which exceeded 14% each of the last two seasons. What he is not known for is power. After posting a solid .443 SLG and .163 ISO in 2016, those numbers have dropped the last two seasons. This year, he has just three home runs in 61 games and a .335 SLG. While he manages to keep most of his batted balls airborne, it's telling that he has an average exit velocity of 87.1° thus far. This is a good example of a stat not necessarily being indicative of its implied correlation. The walks are nice, but with just nine doubles, three homers, and a .225 batting average, Grossman isn't even useful in points leagues.
Alarming Bottom Dwellers
Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) - 4.9° Avg. Launch Angle
In this case, you could probably care less what Taylor's launch angle or power numbers are since he's stealing bases at a prolific clip. Taylor was supposed to be a 20/20 candidate, but that's looking more like 10/40 now. If you're interested, Taylor has one of the lowest launch angles of all regular outfielders and his 85.9 mph exit velocity ranks 227th overall. His slugging percentage is almost 100 points lower than last year, partly due to a HR/FB rate that has been cut in half. There could be some regression, but it looks like last year's 19 HR might wind up being the outlier on his resume. Taylor probably won't surpass 15 HR this year, which is perfectly fine as long as he's swiping bags.
David Peralta (OF, ARI) - 6.7° Avg. Launch Angle
Peralta has already matched last year's home run total at 14 and is among the league leaders in exit velocity and hard hit rate. How is it possible that he is among the worst at launch angle, then? Peralta has consistently been a ground ball hitter and his 50.5% GB% is actually five points lower than last year. Peralta is due for HR regression at some point, as his inflated 21.9% HR/FB is the thing that jumps out most on the back of his virtual baseball card. Peralta owners don't need to be alarmed, however, as he'll continue to be a solid, if not spectacular, contributor across four categories. His fantasy value has likely peaked, however.
Juan Soto (OF, WAS) - 6.8° Avg. Launch Angle
Here's the Nats outfielder we really want to know about. Soto has been a godsend, slashing .323/.422/.596 in his first 30 games with six homers and nine doubles. We have almost nothing to compare this to, as he never stayed more than one place long enough in the minors and barely even played at the Double-A level before being promoted. He's shown amazing plate discipline for a 19-year old, registering a 0.85 BB/K and swinging at just 25% of pitches outside the zone. While not predominantly a power hitter, Soto's raw power grades out at 60 and he's shown plenty of it so far. His lack of launch angle can be ignored because, much like Nomar Mazara and Eric Hosmer, he can generate plenty of long balls and extra-base hits despite a low flyball rate.
Jake Lamb (3B, ARI) - 7.2° Avg. Launch Angle
I'll give it to you straight - Lamb can't hit lefties. He's posting a .200 SLG and .050 ISO versus LHP, compared to .408 SLG and .175 ISO versus RHP. His groundball rate is still too low in general, but it's 12 points higher at 57% against lefties and his hard hit rate is a full 20 points lower. Injuries are to blame for his slow start, but Lamb will still need to make some adjustments in order to lift the ball more. Given his background and relatively favorable home park, humidor or not, Lamb should be considered a buy-low candidate for power.
